Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Wichita, KS

253 
WWUS53 KICT 180316
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1016 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

KSC053-105-169-180345-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0196.000000T0000Z-140818T0345Z/
SALINE KS-LINCOLN KS-ELLSWORTH KS-
1016 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ELLSWORTH...
LINCOLN AND WESTERN SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1015 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CULVER TO ELLSWORTH...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BROOKVILLE AND KANOPOLIS STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 9793 3895 9793 3896 9760 3896 9753
      3861 9783 3861 9793 3853 9793 3852 9847
      3920 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 290DEG 35KT 3892 9781 3868 9823

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HAYES

769 
WWUS53 KICT 180340
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1040 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

KSC053-105-169-180351-
/O.EXP.KICT.SV.W.0196.000000T0000Z-140818T0345Z/
SALINE KS-LINCOLN KS-ELLSWORTH KS-
1040 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ELLSWORTH...LINCOLN AND
WESTERN SALINE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3922 9793 3895 9793 3896 9760 3896 9753
      3861 9783 3861 9793 3853 9793 3852 9847
      3920 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 290DEG 35KT 3884 9753 3860 9795

$$

HAYES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
620 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM SE MO INTO SOUTHERN OK...WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN SD INTO EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN CO AND WOULD EXPECT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER NW KS/WESTERN NEBRASKA. SOME OF THIS
MAYBE AIDED BY A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN CO. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL TRY TO
AFFECT NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY AFTER 03Z.
CENTRAL KS WILL HAVE THE "BEST" CHANCE AT SEEING STORMS DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K
SURFACE. BY MON MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE OVER IA AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH
LESS CERTAINTY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM THAT A WEAK SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL KS WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER EASTERN KS MON EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW VEERS WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW STORMS WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER
NORTHEAST KS AND NW MO WHERE AN UPPER JET MAX WILL MOVE IN.

OUTSIDE OF A FEW MORNING STORMS OVER SE KS...WOULD EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUE AS WE GET INTO SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING UPPER ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF WY/NEBRASKA BY TUE
NIGHT WITH THIS ACTIVITY STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA.

BASED ON 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES...TEMPS
MON LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW AHEAD
OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SOME AREAS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KS TO PUSH THE CENTURY MARK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DIGGING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING THIS
FEATURE EAST AND BY SAT HAS IT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS HOLDS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL ALSO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING IT THROUGH BY
SUN AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THINKING THAT THE
BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KS/NEBRASKA BORDER BY SUN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MOST
OF THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS VEER OUT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  98  71  97 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      68  99  69  98 /  20  20  20  10
NEWTON          68  98  70  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELDORADO        69  97  71  97 /  20  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  99  72  98 /  10  10  20  10
RUSSELL         68  97  68  96 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  98  67  96 /  20  20  20  10
SALINA          70  98  71  97 /  20  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       68  98  69  97 /  20  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  97  71  97 /  10  10  30  20
CHANUTE         68  95  70  96 /  10  20  30  20
IOLA            67  94  70  95 /  10  20  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    68  96  70  97 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
905 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-190215-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
905 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT...WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-135. A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 104 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
849 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

KSZ032-180215-
RUSSELL-
849 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 848 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES
  NORTH OF LURAY TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF VICTORIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST
  AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PARADISE...LURAY...GORHAM...LUCAS AND WALDO.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 9904 3914 9849 3903 9849 3884 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 295DEG 26KT 3935 9873 3902 9924

HAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
915 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SSW WALDO             39.05N 98.84W
08/17/2014  E60 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
953 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 ESE WILSON LAKE       38.93N 98.48W
08/17/2014  M55 MPH          LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
954 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 NNE ELLSWORTH         38.85N 98.17W
08/17/2014  E50 MPH          ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS