Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...A MUCH WEAKER CIRCULATION IS SLOWLY
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST MO. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH
WHAT LOOKS TO BE A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

ISO-SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS ALONG THE WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
JUST LIKE EARLY THIS MORNING...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z
ALONG OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ON SUN WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG THE SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT...AND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DUE TO MAINLY UPSLOPE
PROCESSES. SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
SUN EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES ALONG THE 315K SURFACE OVER NW KS/SW NEBRASKA. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRY TO BUILD SOUTH SUN NIGHT AND MAY AFFECT
PARTS OF AT LEAST CENTRAL KS TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
GFS TAKES SOME OF THE MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION FURTHER SOUTH
COMPARED TO THE NAM...SO CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISO STORMS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS MON MORNING.

MON LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IA/NORTHERN MO...AS THE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR OUR AREA TO SEE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BE MON NIGHT AS THE 850-700MB FLOW VEERS...SETTING UP A DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-135. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALSO LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY GET A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO ON MON EVENING/MON NIGHT. TUE LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC HIGH PLAINS
MCS SCENARIO WITH STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER
NW KS/SW NEBRASKA AND TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
CENTRAL KS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO GET IN ON SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TEMPS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY WITH A SMALL WARM UP TO 97-100
FOR MON AND TUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FOR A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA POSSIBLY REACHING 100 TOWARD
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 22Z
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KCNU THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE NEXT
CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT
WHERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITHIN A MOIST
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WILL BE AFTER 09-10Z ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER 14-15Z ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  95  72  98 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      69  95  71  99 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          69  93  71  97 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        69  93  71  97 /  20  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  72  98 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELL         69  95  70  96 /  10  10  30  20
GREAT BEND      69  95  70  97 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          69  95  72  98 /  10  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       68  94  71  97 /  10  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  93  70  96 /  30  10  10  20
CHANUTE         68  91  69  94 /  30  10  10  20
IOLA            68  90  69  93 /  30  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    69  93  70  95 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
337 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

KSZ095-096-162100-
NEOSHO-WILSON-
337 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 329 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
  DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
  6 MILES NORTH OF ALTOONA...OR 12 MILES WEST OF CHANUTE...MOVING
  EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHANUTE...THAYER...EARLTON AND CHANUTE AIRPORT.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3766 9532 3744 9539 3754 9576 3772 9571
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 284DEG 13KT 3761 9562

MCGUIRE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
411 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

KSZ095-096-162145-
NEOSHO-WILSON-
411 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 409 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ERIE TO
  ALTOONA...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ERIE...THAYER...NEODESHA...ST. PAUL...GALESBURG AND SOUTH MOUND.

WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 9573 3757 9573 3767 9509 3738 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 343DEG 20KT 3758 9526 3750 9558

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
446 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

KSZ096-100-162215-
LABETTE-NEOSHO-
446 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN LABETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  SOUTHERN NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 440 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WALNUT TO
  6 MILES SOUTH OF THAYER...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PARSONS...PARSONS TRI CITY AIRPORT...DENNIS AND SOUTH MOUND.

WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3729 9552 3744 9553 3745 9552 3763 9509
      3763 9508 3748 9508 3747 9508 3730 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 347DEG 18KT 3754 9510 3739 9544

HAYES

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