Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
222 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

UPPER LEVEL DATA ANALYSIS ENDING AT 18Z SHOWS A RATHER MERIDIONAL
WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE GLOBE.  A RATHER DEEP NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.  A SECOND ONE WAS
DEEPENING AND MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND
EXTENDED UP INTO ALBERTA CANADA...ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES.  THE RESULT IS NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR...WELL BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AIRMASS WAS
LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTENDED WEST INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG IT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S.  TO ILLUSTRATE HOW
COOL THE AIRMASS IS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN THE 50S.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

COOK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.
SHEAR PROFILES DO SHOW ABOUT 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WOULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  BUOYANCY IS MARGINAL...WITH MLCAPES
AROUND 1500 J/KG.  SO...THINKING THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...SOME OF THESE MAY BE SEVERE...BUT NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WELL INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS...THAT WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION...MAINLY
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN KANSAS. THE RESULT IS SOME STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT/NET ADIABATIC ASCENT THAT WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. AS IT LOOKS NOW...GFS/NAM BOTH
SHOW MUCH OF IT REMAINING ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUATE MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL.  THIS CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.  CHANCES
ARE VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME.  TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND WILL
RETURN TO THE 90S.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME.  CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY
54 FROM KPTT TO KAAO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS FRONT
MOVES SOUTH..WITH MOST TAF LOCATIONS SHIFTING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH. COULD SEE A LINE OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF I-70...DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  NOT TOO
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE...SO WILL NOT GO WITH
A TEMPO GROUP IN ANY TAFS FOR NOW. IF A LINE OF STORMS CAN GET
GOING...COULD SEE SOME VARIABLE WINDS OF 25G40KT ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS. DO NOT THINK CIGS/VSBY WITH ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
GO MVFR...WITH MID LEVEL VFR CIGS EXPECTED.

THINK MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OR CERTAINLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  SO WILL
END THE STORM CHANCE IN MOST LOCATIONS BY AROUND 01/02Z/TUE...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE CONVECTION PASSES.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  77  60  72 /  10   0  20  60
HUTCHINSON      56  77  59  71 /  10   0  30  60
NEWTON          55  76  58  71 /  10   0  20  50
ELDORADO        55  76  58  72 /  10   0  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  78  60  73 /  20   0  20  50
RUSSELL         54  76  58  70 /  10  10  40  50
GREAT BEND      55  76  58  70 /  10  10  50  60
SALINA          55  78  59  73 /  10   0  20  30
MCPHERSON       55  77  59  71 /  10   0  30  50
COFFEYVILLE     58  78  57  78 /  20   0  10  30
CHANUTE         55  77  56  77 /  10   0  10  20
IOLA            54  76  55  77 /  10   0  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    57  77  56  77 /  20   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-152045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
334 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. MOST STORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL-
SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD PRODUCE WINDS TO 60 MPH AND ONE INCH HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NEITHER
STRONG NOR SEVERE...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-135. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
ON THURSDAY BUT WOULD BE NEITHER STRONG NOR SEVERE.

THE SUMMER HEAT WILL RETURN AND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH 100 TO 105 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     SE VIOLA                37.48N 97.64W
07/14/2014  E70.00 MPH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ALL OVER THE YARD.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
347 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E CHENEY              37.63N 97.74W
07/14/2014                   SEDGWICK           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            4 POWER POLES DOWN.

&&

KRC

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