Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THIS AFTERNOON:
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST KS WITH DEVELOPMENT IN
PROGRESS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KS AT MID-DAY. ROLE PLAYERS HAVE BEEN A
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS BORDER THAT CONTINUES TO INDUCE WARM & MOIST
LOWER DECK ADVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR
IN AREAS WHERE MID-LEVEL CAP IS WEAKER. DEEP-LAYER DYNAMICS ARE FEEBLE
BUT 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATERS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. PER THESE REASONS HAVE ADJUSTED THUNDERSTORM LOCATIONS &
RAINFALL WITH FOCUS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM FROM AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL WAA
BEFORE DIMINISHING. BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF
A LLJ. MAINTAINED 30-40 POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXTEND SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALTHOUGH HIGHER PROBABILITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. CLOUD DEBRIS MAY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED MID POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY AS RECENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW POOR
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ANTICIPATED.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND OVER
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DECREASING POPS AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WHEN A
CAPPING INVERSION WILL RETURN TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND BOTH TRACK A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
WINDY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING. MAINTAINED LOW POPS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY BUT A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

SCT TSRA WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER CNTRL & SC KS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH +RA LIKELY PRODUCING MVFR VSBYS. SPOTTY NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
DICTATES ASSIGNING "VCTS" TO MOST TERMINALS (THE EXCEPTION IS KCNU)
THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ASSIGN A "TEMPO"
GROUP FOR KICT & KHUT THIS EVENING AS COVERAGE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  68  85  68 /  30  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      86  67  85  68 /  50  50  50  30
NEWTON          85  67  84  67 /  30  50  50  40
ELDORADO        85  67  84  67 /  20  50  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  69  85  68 /  20  40  40  40
RUSSELL         83  64  85  66 /  60  60  30  30
GREAT BEND      83  64  84  66 /  60  60  30  30
SALINA          86  68  86  68 /  30  50  50  30
MCPHERSON       85  67  84  67 /  40  50  50  30
COFFEYVILLE     86  69  85  69 /  10  30  40  40
CHANUTE         85  69  85  68 /  10  40  40  40
IOLA            85  68  85  68 /  10  50  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    86  69  85  69 /  10  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
510 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-251015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
510 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZED HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP