Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

PROGRESSIVE DERECHO DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WHICH WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE HRRR
AND RAP ARE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE TRACK WHICH SUGGESTS
IMPACT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WICHITA METRO LOOKS REASONABLE
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WATCH 226. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MESO/BOWING
SEGMENT. WIND DRIVEN HAIL IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAIL SIZE
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE GOLF BALL OR LESS...THOUGH COULD
STILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IF COINCIDENT
WITH SWATH OF STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
PRECEDE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE WIND STORM...ALONG THE WARM
ADVECTION FEEDER ARM OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW LATER TODAY...SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY RESIDE CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER OR INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

A MORE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER LARGER SCALE MESO-CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE WITH
EPISODAL SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH DAILY
TRENDS ON PLACEMENT AND MODE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CHALLENGING DUE TO MESOSCALE INFLUENCES IN THE PRECEDING
12 TO 24 HOURS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO HIGHER IMPACT AND FOCUS ON SHORT TERM
WEATHER.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

EXPECTING A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  69  83  68 /  70  60  50  80
HUTCHINSON      84  67  82  67 /  80  60  40  80
NEWTON          82  67  81  66 /  80  60  40  80
ELDORADO        82  67  80  67 /  70  60  50  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  69  83  69 /  60  60  50  80
RUSSELL         82  64  82  65 /  70  40  30  70
GREAT BEND      83  65  82  65 /  70  60  40  80
SALINA          82  66  82  66 /  70  30  30  80
MCPHERSON       83  66  81  66 /  80  50  40  80
COFFEYVILLE     85  69  82  69 /  60  60  60  70
CHANUTE         81  68  81  67 /  70  60  50  70
IOLA            80  67  80  67 /  70  60  50  70
PARSONS-KPPF    84  68  82  68 /  70  60  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
428 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-060845-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
428 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH
AND LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE. WIND DRIVEN LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THIS MORNING.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. CHECK LATER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS ON THE DAILY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
SPECULATE ON THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL MID-MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A SALINA TO WICHITA LINE. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

KSZ047-050900-
BARTON-
315 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 400 AM CDT

* AT 312 AM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
  DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
  NEAR GREAT BEND...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ELLINWOOD AND CLAFLIN.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN
FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK
FOR MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 9848 3856 9847 3856 9848 3825 9848
      3825 9898 3845 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 0815Z 261DEG 25KT 3838 9870

JAKUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

KSZ032-050930-
RUSSELL-
340 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 430 AM CDT

* AT 339 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RUSSELL...MOVING EAST AT 30
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BUNKER HILL...DORRANCE...RUSSELL AIRPORT AND WILSON LAKE.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3912 9867 3885 9849 3877 9904 3898 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 249DEG 25KT 3889 9886

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
418 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 AM     HAIL             GREAT BEND              38.36N 98.81W
06/05/2014  E0.88 INCH       BARTON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
437 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     HAIL             7 WNW MCPHERSON         38.41N 97.78W
06/05/2014  E2.00 INCH       MCPHERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
439 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 AM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELL                 38.89N 98.85W
06/05/2014  E60 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
447 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 AM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELL ARPT            38.87N 98.82W
06/05/2014  M72 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   ASOS

&&

VJP