River Flood Warning 9, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

DURING THE NIGHT A DEEP BUT RATHER WEAK CYCLONE WAS SPINNING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK/NORTHWEST AR & SOUTHWEST MO BORDERS. LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUED TO WRAP AROUND THE CHARACTER FROM NORTHERN MO TO EAST
CENTRAL KS. NORTHEAST WINDS ~10MPH OVER EASTERN KS WERE BACKING TO THE
NORTH 10-20 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

TODAY & TONIGHT:
THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HAVE THE LIGHT RAIN ENDING IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER TODAY WITH LIGHT
RAIN EXITING SOUTHEAST KS ~7 PM. SKIES WOULD CLEAR IN LIKE MANNER AND
WITH LIGHT & VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD ENABLE LOWS TO DROP TO ~60F.

WED-THU:
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS TIMING ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN & MANITOBA TO THE DAKOTAS
MOVES EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING A COLD FRONT SE
WITH THE BOUNDARY SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE NORTHWEST KS EARLY THIS EVENING &
WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE KS LATE WED NIGHT & THU INTO A
MOIST & INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE NW PLAINS WED EVENING THEN SPREAD SE TOWARD KICT COUNTRY LATE WED
NIGHT. THE LOWEST 10,000-15,000FT OF THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL KS WED EVENING. AS SUCH AM DELAYING
THUNDERSTORMS' ARRIVAL TO CENTRAL KS TIL ~10 PM BUT STILL ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD QUITE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD LATE
WED NIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS' ELEVATED NATURE WOULD MAKE DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG HEAVY RAINS. WITH THE FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY SE
THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS THU EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED. CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
WOULD BE TARGETED LATE SAT AFTERNOON & SAT NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS AT RISK
SUN & SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE HAIL MAY BE QUITE LARGE...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL KS WHERE GFS DEPICTS 3500-4500 MLCAPES & ECMWF DEPICTS 6
KM BULK SHEAR REACHING ~50 KTS. NEXT WEEKEND WILL DRAW CONSIDERABLE
ATTENTION THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

LOW CLOUDS ARE STICKING AROUND...BUT SLOWLY LIFTING TO VFR. MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN AT KHUT AND KCNU...BUT KHUT IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER
OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR AND KCNU WILL LIFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EASTERLY BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
LOWER MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT KCNU
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  59  86  65 /  20   0   0  70
HUTCHINSON      80  60  86  64 /  10   0   0  80
NEWTON          78  58  84  62 /  30   0   0  70
ELDORADO        77  57  83  63 /  40   0   0  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  58  86  64 /  30   0   0  60
RUSSELL         79  59  87  61 /  10   0   0  80
GREAT BEND      80  59  88  61 /  10   0   0  80
SALINA          80  58  85  63 /  10   0   0  80
MCPHERSON       79  59  85  63 /  10   0   0  80
COFFEYVILLE     75  55  83  63 /  50   0   0  30
CHANUTE         74  54  82  63 /  70   0   0  30
IOLA            71  54  81  63 /  80   0   0  30
PARSONS-KPPF    75  55  82  62 /  60   0   0  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-111500-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND FOR MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON
THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND VERY
HEAVY RAINS THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE FURTHER FLOODING.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HAIL MAY BE QUITE
LARGE ALONG WITH WINDS AROUND 70 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. YOU
SHOULD LISTEN CLOSELY FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS ISSUED
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC/BILLINGS WRIGHT