River Flood Warning 10, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
615 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

IT HAS BEEN A CLEAR & RATHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS KS AS A VERY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS EASTERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

TODAY:
MOSTLY SUNNY & WARMER WEATHER AWAITS THE NIEGHBORHOOD AS WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES E ACROSS THE KS/MO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT-THU:
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT UPPER-DECK TROF SCOOTS E FROM MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO THE UPR
MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING THE UPPER WAVE WILL DIG TOWARD THE
NEBRASKA/KS BORDER & WITH THE WAVE MOVING E A COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE SE
ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS TONIGHT THEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS ON
THU. THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN & NORTHWESTERN
PLAINS THEN SHOULD SURGE SE ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS ~60 MPH ARE LIKELY (ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL &
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS) A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE TRANSPORTING
HIGHER OCTANE MOISTURE ACROSS KS. AS SUCH VERY RAINS REMAIN A MAJOR
CONCERN. A FLOOD WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AS
WELL AS FOR RENO...HARVEY...SEDGWICK & BUTLER COUNTIES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 7 AM THU. WITH THE SE-MOVING COLD FRONT
VENTURING INTO AN EVER INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT (PRECIPITABLE WATERS
ARE ~175% OF NORMAL) AREAS GENERALLY ALONG & SE OF THE TURNPIKE WILL
GET DRENCHED. RAINFALLS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP ACROSS THESE AREAS. A FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXPLORED BUT FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH A STRONGLY-WORDED
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FRI:
RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END QUICKLY IN WEST TO EAST MANNER AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
THE U.S. WITH SKIES CLEARING & WINDS BECOMING LIGHT & VARIABLE THE FOG
POTENTIAL IS INCREASING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED ON THU.)

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER-DECK LOW
THAT IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD THEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI NIGHT & SAT. THIS CHARACTER SHOULD UNDERGO
CYCLOGENESIS SAT & SAT NIGHT ENABLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE
ACROSS KS SAT NIGHT & SUN. THE AIRMASS WAITING FOR THE FRONT WILL BE
VERY MOIST & EQUALLY UNSTABLE & WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO
40-50KTS & STRENGTHENING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. AS
SUCH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS & PERHAPS EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THIS IS STILL ~4 DAYS HENCE SO
DETAILS WILL BE CERTAINLY BE PROVIDED AS THESE PERIODS DRAW NEARER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOIST SOILS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF IFR FOG
AT ICT AND CNU EARLY THIS MORNING. LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS PM...THEN INCREASING
IN COVERAGE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  65  76  57 /   0  90  60   0
HUTCHINSON      87  64  75  57 /   0  80  30   0
NEWTON          83  63  74  56 /   0  80  50   0
ELDORADO        82  63  75  56 /   0  80  60   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  64  77  57 /   0  90  80   0
RUSSELL         88  60  76  56 /   0  80  10   0
GREAT BEND      89  61  75  57 /   0  80  10   0
SALINA          84  63  77  56 /   0  80  20   0
MCPHERSON       85  63  75  56 /   0  80  30   0
COFFEYVILLE     82  63  77  57 /   0  60  90  30
CHANUTE         81  63  76  56 /   0  60  80  20
IOLA            81  63  76  56 /   0  60  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    82  63  77  57 /   0  60  90  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-083.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
517 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-121030-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
517 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY LOCALLY BE AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE.

LOW LAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS.

TONIGHT...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS
AROUND 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINS THAT WOULD LIKELY CAUSE FURTHER
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY.
WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE QUITE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY AND MAY CAUSE
FURTHER FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WHEN VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE HALF MILE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE HAIL MAY BE QUITE LARGE ALONG WITH WINDS
AROUND 70 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINS.

YOU SHOULD LISTEN CLOSELY FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS THAT
ARE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES