Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Wichita, KS

Allen County, KS, Barton County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Woodson County, KS

671 
WWUS83 KICT 311529
RFWICT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1029 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>094-098-010100-
/O.CON.KICT.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140401T0100Z/
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-
CHASE-RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-
HARPER-SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-CHAUTAUQUA-
1029 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 053...
068...069...070...071...072...083...091...092...093...094 AND
098...

* EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...IS FORECAST.

* TIMING...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL CLIMB INTO THE
  EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
  AFTERNOON HOURS AND REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 18 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY 
  AND BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO CONTROL. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT 
  RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT.

&&

$$

MWM/KETCHAM

146 
WWUS83 KICT 312025
RFWICT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>094-098-010100-
/O.CON.KICT.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-140401T0100Z/
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-
CHASE-RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-
HARPER-SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-CHAUTAUQUA-
325 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 032...
033...047...048...049...050...051...052...053...067...068...069...
070...071...072...082...083...091...092...093...094 AND 098...

* EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...IS FORECAST.

* TIMING...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REMAIN IN THE
  EXTREME CATEGORY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

* WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
  MPH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY 
  AND BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO CONTROL. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT 
  RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

A VIGOROUS H5 TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WAS RESULTING IN STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST
OF I-135 WHERE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE/LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED
BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 3/6 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 5/8 MB
IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH MODIFIED
CANADIAN AIR RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
PROBABILITIES FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
WHERE MINIMAL CINH IS PROGGED. ELEVATED CAPE OF 400-600+ J/KG MAY RESULT
IN A FEW HAILERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS
WHILE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

WED-THU...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES AND THE PARENT LARGER
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA HOWEVER THEY BEGIN TO DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY IN THE DETAILS AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS
SHOW POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING TO CONTINUED LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAINTAINED MID POPS ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS THE MORE VIGOROUS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS ON THURSDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/AROUND 60
AS A MEAN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. MAINTAINED LOW POPS LATE SAT INTO SUN ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAIN
QUITE UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014

INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD/MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 WILL LEAD TO SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KCNU AND POSSIBLY AT KICT.
TIMING AT KICT WILL BE CLOSE AS ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE AND WEST
COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS WILL BE CLOSE.  MODELS SUGGEST SOME
PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE IN SE KS...AT THIS TIME ONLY WENT
VCSH AT KCNU FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO STRONG MIXING
DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY QUICK FALL OFF IN WIND SPEEDS AT
SUNSET GIVEN MUCH RELAXED SUFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY USHERING
IN DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
SENDING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX INTO THE EXTREME CATEGORY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING WAS HOISTED FOR ALL
AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE FUELS ARE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  36  54  48 /  10   0  10  60
HUTCHINSON      77  33  54  45 /  10   0  10  40
NEWTON          74  34  53  46 /  10   0  10  60
ELDORADO        78  36  55  48 /  10   0  10  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  40  61  53 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         72  28  54  39 /   0   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      73  28  56  41 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          75  32  53  41 /  10   0  10  40
MCPHERSON       76  32  53  43 /  10   0  10  50
COFFEYVILLE     76  43  64  54 /  20  10  10  50
CHANUTE         76  38  64  50 /  20  10  10  70
IOLA            76  36  62  49 /  20  10  10  70
PARSONS-KPPF    76  42  64  53 /  20  10  10  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>050.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
924 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-010230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
924 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER
MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND
ADVISORY AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. NICKEL
SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE OVER MAINLY
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STAY TUNED TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC/LAWSON/HOWERTON