Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS IS NOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN
OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NV/NW AZ. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE FRONT HAS
SURGED THROUGH THE AREA AND IS NOW SITUATED DOWN NEAR THE RED
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

NOT IMPRESSED WITH STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DOWN SOUTH ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX/NORTHEAST NM.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN
NM/NORTHEAST NM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUN MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY
SUN AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF I-135 AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL COME SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON AS THE MORE ROBUST WAVE DIVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE IN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS. SO NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH SEVERE STORMS SUN NIGHT-MON
WITH FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOKS TO
BE GREATER THAN 1.5" WHILE THE STORMS ROLL THROUGH WHICH IS ABOUT
WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.

WHAT TO DO WITH THE FLOOD WATCH WAS ONE OF THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE. WE AGREE THAT IF WE WERE TO CANCEL
IT...THERE IS A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE WE WOULD END UP REISSUING
IT FOR HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT-MON. SO WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND GOT RID OF IT
FOR THOSE TIME PERIODS AND STARTED IT 18Z SUN AND RAN THROUGH 00Z
TUE.

GFS AND NAM START TO DIVERGE ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
WAVE FOR MON NIGHT-TUE AND AT THIS TIME HAVE A LEAN TO THE SLOWER
GFS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF
THE AREA IN THE WARP AROUND REGION OF THIS SYSTEM FOR MOST OF MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AND SUN...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND
THEY SHOULD STAY THIS WAY FOR MON AND TUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WED NIGHT...GENERATING ANOTHER MCS.
THEY ALSO BOTH AGREE ON MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT.
A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE STRONGER WESTERLIES SHIFTS NORTH AS UPPER RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH...A BROAD AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA...SO TOUGH TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT EVENING
CONVECTION SKIRTING NORTHERN KS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER WITH VFR PREVAILING BY 20-21Z.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
RETURNING TONIGHT UNDER SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WEST SOIL
CONDITIONS WE MAY SEE SOME TRANSIENT MVFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS
TOWARD 12Z BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH
VFR RETURNING BY 13-14Z ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  76  62  73 /  10  30  70  70
HUTCHINSON      60  75  62  72 /  10  30  70  70
NEWTON          61  76  62  72 /  10  20  60  70
ELDORADO        62  76  62  73 /  10  20  60  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  76  63  76 /  20  30  70  80
RUSSELL         59  74  58  69 /  10  30  80  70
GREAT BEND      60  74  60  71 /  10  30  80  70
SALINA          60  77  61  70 /  10  20  70  70
MCPHERSON       60  76  62  71 /  10  20  70  70
COFFEYVILLE     64  77  64  75 /  20  20  70  80
CHANUTE         61  77  63  74 /  10  20  50  80
IOLA            61  76  62  74 /  10  20  50  80
PARSONS-KPPF    62  77  63  74 /  20  20  60  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1201 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-081315-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1201 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KINGMAN TO WICHITA TO CHANUTE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING.

SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP