Areal Flood Warning 39, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA EARLY ON
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY.
MAINTAINED LOW POPS THROUGH MUCH OF  THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND 21Z. FURTHER
WEST...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 03-5Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EMERGES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 1-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO BE MAXIMIZED IN THE
04-10Z WINDOW. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MID/UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHEAR/CAPE PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

ANOTHER CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST. UPPER LOW OVER AREA IS
EXPECTED TO TURN THE CORNER AND START LIFTING NE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT CURRENT SHIELD OF RAIN/LOWER CEILINGS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME WANING OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
AS LOW MOVES OUT...ANTICIPATE GRADUAL IMPROVMENT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  78  59  86 /  50  20   0  10
HUTCHINSON      59  78  58  87 /  70  10   0  10
NEWTON          58  76  58  85 /  70  20   0  10
ELDORADO        59  75  58  84 /  60  20   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  77  57  86 /  50  20   0  10
RUSSELL         54  79  59  87 /  90  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      55  78  58  87 /  90  10   0  10
SALINA          59  79  59  87 /  90  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       59  78  58  86 /  80  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     62  76  57  85 /  50  60  10  10
CHANUTE         61  74  57  83 /  60  50  10   0
IOLA            61  73  58  83 /  70  50  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    61  75  57  84 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-101700-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
333 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS.

IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF...WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOST OF THESE FUNNELS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE THE GROUND. HOWEVER...A VERY BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF  SO...THEY COULD RESULT IN MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND 60 MPH GUSTS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

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