Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
619 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND WILL
BE TRACKING OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...RICH GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WARM FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM FAR SE KS TO
JUST NORTH OF ENID WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. SOME CU
HAS STARTED TO BUBBLE JUST NORTH OF ENID NEAR OR JUST EAST OF WHAT
APPEARS TO BE THE TRIPLE POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THE MAIN QUESTION IS IF AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION WE GET GOING BEFORE
SUNSET. THERE SEEMS TO BE DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT NORTHERN OK
INTO FAR SOUTHERN KS WOULD BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY AREA FOR DAYTIME
INITIATION...BASICALLY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA BEFORE 10 PM WILL HAVE THE "BEST" CHANCE AT
PRODUCING A COUPLE TORNADOES.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER
SUNSET AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN THE 850-700MB RANGE. WITH
GREATER THAN 2000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND PLENTY OF SHEAR ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
OVERNIGHT STORMS. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
WILL BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST KS.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS A BAND
OF WARP AROUND PRECIP WILL SLIDE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KS ON THU
WITH THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE RAIN WITH THE BETTER SNOW CHANCES
STAYING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY OVER SE KS PRIOR TO 21Z THU WITH SEVERE
WEATHER A GOOD BET WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS. UNLIKE TODAY...STORMS
ON THU WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ON FRI AS
IT LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON SAT ALLOWING US TO GET BACK INTO SOME
MORE SEASONAL TEMPS

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OF A TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AND WILL THUS KEEP MODEST PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A NORTHWARD MIGRATING
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD DAWN. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY ON THURSDAY.
LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORY ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THU WILL KEEP THE FIRE
DANGER IN CHECK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS AND INCREASING RH'S. WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON FRI AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
THE FIRE DANGER THREAT DOWN FOR. AT THIS POINT...FRI LOOKS TO BE
A GOOD DAY TO BURN ACROSS THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  64  33  58 /  50  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      45  56  33  57 /  40  30  20   0
NEWTON          49  61  34  56 /  50  20  20   0
ELDORADO        54  67  34  57 /  50  30  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  70  35  60 /  50  20  10   0
RUSSELL         39  41  29  54 /  40  60  30   0
GREAT BEND      39  42  30  55 /  40  50  20   0
SALINA          43  51  32  55 /  50  30  30   0
MCPHERSON       44  55  33  55 /  50  30  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     61  74  38  60 /  60  50  20   0
CHANUTE         61  73  35  58 /  60  50  20   0
IOLA            61  73  35  58 /  60  50  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    61  73  37  59 /  60  50  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-030945-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
348 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH HAIL AS LARGE AS
TENNIS BALLS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400. A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 PM GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 400.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF CENTRAL
KANSAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

LAWSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
805 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             5 SE DEXTER             37.13N 96.65W
04/02/2014  E1.75 INCH       COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
806 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             SEDAN                   37.13N 96.18W
04/02/2014  E1.75 INCH       CHAUTAUQUA         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS