Tornado Warning 36, NWS Huntsville, AL

706 
WWUS54 KHUN 132210
SVSHUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
510 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ALC089-132230-
/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0036.000000T0000Z-141013T2230Z/
MADISON AL-
510 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY...
    
AT 510 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOORES
MILL...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOORES MILL...NEW MARKET AND PLEVNA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8629 3494 8628 3495 8629 3493 8632
      3491 8631 3489 8634 3483 8633 3480 8635
      3479 8633 3479 8634 3478 8634 3481 8653
      3498 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 196DEG 47KT 3485 8645 

$$

15

291 
WWUS54 KHUN 132220
SVSHUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
520 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ALC089-132229-
/O.CAN.KHUN.TO.W.0036.000000T0000Z-141013T2230Z/
MADISON AL-
520 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED...AND NO LONGER 
APPEARS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THEREFORE THE WARNING 
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN 
EFFECT FOR FAR NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM.

LAT...LON 3497 8629 3494 8628 3495 8629 3493 8632
      3491 8631 3489 8634 3483 8633 3480 8635
      3479 8633 3479 8634 3478 8634 3481 8653
      3498 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 197DEG 41KT 3495 8641 

$$

15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
342 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...FLASH FLOODING...AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

.SYNOPSIS... A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE HEARTLAND HAS
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE QLCS EDGING CLOSER
TO THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BEHIND
THIS DEEP TROUGH, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES.

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHICH ARE EXHIBITING DEEP UPDRAFTS AND
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THESE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
TN VALLEY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING QLCS HAS DEFINITELY BEEN DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT IT APPEARS THAT HRRR/RAP/WRF
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE WITH THIS SEVERE QLCS AND THE DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH. WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY OBSERVED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. MORE SPECIFIC ON
THE WIND SHEAR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, 0-3
KM SRH IS BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2 WITH HIGHER VALUES TONIGHT (500-600
M2/S2 BY 01-06Z), WHILE BULK SHEAR (0-6 KM) INCREASES TO 40-60 KTS-
GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE LOCATED
OVER NW AL INITIALLY. THE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY DUE IN
PART TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST AS IT APPEARS
THE SOUTHERN FLANK PUSHES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
ACROSS E LA/W MS BTWN 01-07Z. THIS MAY ALSO HAVE THE EFFECT OF
ACCELERATING THE LINE EASTWARD IN ADDITION TO INCREASING/MAINTAINING
THE STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE STRONG WINDS INDUCED BY THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM HAS ALSO NECESSITATED KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS RISING BETWEEN 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
LIKELY.

REGARDING INSTABILITY, THE MODEL PROGS THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY TO
OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MUCAPES
RISING CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG BEFORE FALLING OFF OVERNIGHT.

THE STRONG LLJ (40-50 KTS FROM THE SOUTH) IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS ALREADY RESULTED
IN A WARM/MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO PLAY A PART IN
SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, DESPITE THE DECREASE IN SENSIBLE HEATING/INSTABILITY,
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE ALREADY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR DAMAGING WING GUSTS AND
TORNADOES ALONG THE QLCS TONIGHT. THOUGH THE FRONT IS LAGGING BEHIND
THIS QLCS, EXPECTING IT TO BEGIN MOVING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IMPACTING THE TN VALLEY BTWN 07-12Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AN ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION IS THAT DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL WE
HAVE RECEIVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL 2-3
INCHES EXPECTED, THE AREA IS RIPE FOR FLASH FLOODING WHICH COULD BE
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THUS, THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN RETAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

AS A RESULT OF THIS CURRENT ANALYSIS AND MODEL PROGS, HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING AND PASSAGE OF THE SUPERCELLS/CLUSTERS AND
QLCS AND MAINTAINED THE THREATS SEVERE WORDING THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW, THE SUPERCELLS/CLUSTERS FROM THE SOUTH
SHOULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA BETWEEN 5-8PM. THEN, THE
QLCS/SQUALL LINE SHOULD IMPACT NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY 5-9PM,
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY 8PM-1AM, AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY 1AM-5AM.

ONCE THE FROPA OCCURS, SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. DID KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY DUE
TO THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH BECOMING QUASI-CUTOFF FROM THE
PREVAILING FLOW AND SPINNING OVER THE MID MS AND OH RIVER VALLEYS.
KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS (UPPER 60S) DUE TO THIS SCENARIO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IN THE
40S. OTHERWISE, A COMPLETE CLEARING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND
THEN DRY AND CLOSE TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE A DRY FRONT BUT THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 102 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT HSV AND MSL
IN THE SHORT TERM. AS A LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES NW ALABAMA BY
AROUND 00Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT MSL. THE MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE HSV VICINITY
BY AROUND 05Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    65  68  53  65 / 100  70  20  20
SHOALS        61  67  52  66 / 100  60  20  20
VINEMONT      64  67  53  65 / 100  70  20  20
FAYETTEVILLE  65  68  52  62 / 100  80  20  20
ALBERTVILLE   66  71  52  65 / 100  80  20  20
FORT PAYNE    65  72  52  66 / 100  80  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
218 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-140500-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
218 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR AND SWEEP NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND
BRIEF TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS.

OTHERWISE..A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COUNTIES BEGINNING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 7
AM AND NOON TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 1 PM TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
LIKELY BEGINNING THIS EVENING FOR ALL AREAS. THE NEED FOR
ACTIVATION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
458 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S CULLMAN             34.12N 86.86W
10/13/2014                   CULLMAN            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN AND A PORCH WAS HEAVILY
            DAMAGED AT THIS LOCATION.

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SW HANCEVILLE           34.06N 86.77W
10/13/2014                   CULLMAN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES WERE REPORTED NEAR HIGHWAY 91 AROUND
            HANCEVILLE.

0447 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW CULLMAN           34.24N 86.87W
10/13/2014                   CULLMAN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO BUSINESSESS IN THE VINEMONT
            AREA.

&&

KWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
505 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E ATHENS              34.80N 86.88W
10/13/2014                   LIMESTONE          AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LARGE TREE LIMB WAS REPORTED DOWN AND A MOBILE HOME
            UNDERPINNING WAS RIPPED OFF AT THIS LOCATION. WINDS
            ESTIMATED AT 65 MPH.

&&

KWEBER