Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
148 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO WITH NAM/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE TEMPS WERE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. ON THE WX
MAP TODAY...THERE WAS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROF OVER ERN KS/OK AND A
WARM FRONT OVER WRN GA. THIS LEAVES THE TN VALLEY IN A VERY
WARM/HUMID/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTN/EVENING. THE SVR WX THREAT IS LOW BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH/SMALL HAIL AND HVY RAIN. NAM SHOWS THAT THE
CHC OF PCPN TONIGHT SHOULD DROP OFF SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER WITH THE
UPPER WAVE TO OUR WEST...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FOR OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR PCPN AS
THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING A POSSIBLE HVY RAIN EVENT WITH PW'S APPROACHING TWO INCHES.
ATTM WE COULD SEE A TOTAL OF 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA
FROM TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MRNG.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TN
VALLEY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING
WOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY (EARLY THURSDAY MRNG)
ANOTHER COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES MAY BRING MORE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY A RIDGE WILL TRY
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...THIS SHOULD KEEP POPS ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPS WILL BE SUMMER LIKE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND MRNG LOWS ARND 70.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD LOWER THE VIS AT KMSL
TEMPORARILY BUT CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR AT BOTH LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME
EXPECTING STORMS TO END AROUND 00Z OR SHORTLY AFTER...BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST TIMING IF NEEDED. MORE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-10KTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD /15Z/.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  86  71  89 /  50  80  50  40
SHOALS        71  87  72  90 /  50  80  50  40
VINEMONT      70  86  71  89 /  50  80  50  40
FAYETTEVILLE  68  85  70  87 /  50  80  50  40
ALBERTVILLE   69  85  69  88 /  50  80  50  40
FORT PAYNE    69  85  70  88 /  50  80  50  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

ALZ009-010-232045-
DE KALB AL-JACKSON AL-
320 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL DE KALB AND SOUTH
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 319 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PISGAH...OR NEAR SCOTTSBORO...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCOTTSBORO...RAINSVILLE...SYLVANIA...FYFFE...HOLLYWOOD...POWELL...
SECTION...PISGAH...DUTTON AND SHILOH.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3474 8595 3468 8583 3444 8586 3454 8612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 024DEG 8KT 3465 8593

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
357 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

ALZ001>004-232145-
LAUDERDALE AL-LAWRENCE AL-COLBERT AL-FRANKLIN AL-
357 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAUDERDALE...NORTHERN
LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN COLBERT AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 356 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
LITTLEVILLE...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF RUSSELLVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...RUSSELLVILLE...SHEFFIELD...TUSCUMBIA...
KILLEN...TOWN CREEK...LITTLEVILLE...LEIGHTON AND COURTLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 8759 3460 8783 3499 8768 3465 8718
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 233DEG 19KT 3457 8761

12