Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
424 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE TROUGH IS STILL IN PLACE OVER TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DISTURBANCES ROUND OUT THROUGH THE BASE. THIS MORNINGS ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEFT CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
THROUGH THIS AFTN. THIS PROCEEDED TO LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY AND
DAYTIME HEATING...PREVENTING STORMS FROM OCCUR EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT FOR THE STORMS LATE AFTN/EVENING
WITH 40KTS 0-6KM...BUT CAPE BECOMES MORE ELEVATED AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AFTER THIS BATCH OF STORMS...THE TROUGH STAYS IN PLACE ALLOWING MORE
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TOMORROW WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE BOOTHEEL OF MO AND NORTH AR WILL WASHOUT BEFORE IT GETS TO
AL...BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WED THAT
WILL HAVE DRIER AIR BEHIND IT...THUS A DRIER FORECAST. AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA ON THURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE WILL RETURN. ADDED PRECIP BACK IN ON THURS FROM WEST TO EAST
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN ALONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO WASH OUT IN THE TN VALLEY
LEAVING PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FOR
THE TEMPS...WE ARE EXPECTING NO MAJOR COOL DOWNS LIKE WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED THIS PAST WEEK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT NORMAL OR
JUST ABOVE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW 80S FOR THE HIGHS
AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR NOW...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW AHEAD OF AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT.
SOME -RA/SHRA ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...MOST
LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGER SHRA/TSRA MAY NOT
DEVELOP/MOVE EWD INTO THE AREA ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS. PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME HRS TUE...BEFORE SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR OUT OF
THE W/NW BEGINS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  78  60  81 /  70  60  40  10
SHOALS        60  79  60  83 /  70  50  40  10
VINEMONT      59  78  60  81 /  70  50  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  77  57  80 /  70  60  50  10
ALBERTVILLE   57  79  59  82 /  70  60  30  10
FORT PAYNE    58  77  59  81 /  70  60  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
437 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-071030-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
437 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THROUGH 7 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH ALABAMA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH AND BRIEF WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND HAIL.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT ANY HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

DJN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
537 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

ALZ009-062300-
JACKSON AL-
537 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

AT 536 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BRIDGEPORT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRIDGEPORT...SOUTH PITTSBURG...STEVENSON...ORME...LONG ISLAND...
RUSSELL CAVE NATIONAL MONUMENT AND NEW HOPE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALL UNSECURED ITEMS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 8582 3499 8586 3499 8561 3497 8560
      3488 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 248DEG 26KT 3494 8574

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
554 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

ALZ006-009-TNZ097-062330-
MADISON AL-JACKSON AL-FRANKLIN TN-
554 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 553 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NEW MARKET...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOORES MILL...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW MARKET...HYTOP...PLEVNA...JERICHO...ESTILLFORK...FRANCISCO AND
LARKIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.
SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 8601 3486 8642 3499 8643 3499 8632
      3501 8632 3508 8602
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 258DEG 35KT 3493 8634

KDW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
610 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

ALZ003-062345-
FRANKLIN AL-
610 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 610 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BELMONT...OR NEAR RED BAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN...PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RED BAY...BELGREEN...VINA...POGO...LITTLE BEAR CREEK RESERVOIR...
CEDAR CREEK RESERVOIR...PLEASANT SITE...DEMPSEY AND HALLTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALL UNSECURED ITEMS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 8814 3457 8782 3437 8792 3438 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 273DEG 27KT 3449 8819

DJN.83