River Flood Warning 12, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
521 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 344 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE MS/LA COAST WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT IS STALLED OUT FROM LAKE CHARLES LA TO
TUPELO MS LINE. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN THIS EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP
THE FRONT ALMOST STATIONARY. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS
PROVIDED AMPLE SHEAR WHICH HAS MADE UP FOR THE LIMITED INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WERE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN GA.

THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TONIGHT. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WIND
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS. THE ROUND OF RAIN EARLIER TODAY
PRODUCED AROUND A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN AND ANOTHER INCH TO INCH
AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE
SOME STREAMS TO REACH THEIR BANKFULL AND CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER
IN LOW LYING AREAS.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END
TO A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME WRAP AROUND LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DURING THIS
TIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID.

WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES IN TIME FOR CHRISTMAS AND WILL BRING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S. RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SEND GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE IN THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AND ENDED UP GOING WITH A BIT OF BLEND
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM. THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS BEYOND MONDAY AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL
CHANGES IN THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
A SFC LOW OVER SERN LA HAD A CDFNT EXTENDING NORTHWARD THRU CENTRAL
MS AND INTO WRN TN. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NE IT WILL KEEP THE CDFNT
FROM MOVING TO FAR TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER ARND 12Z AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THE
SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF. BY 19Z THE CDFNT SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE CWA ALONG WITH THE PCPN. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THRU ARND 16Z. AFTER 16Z...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH KMSL AND KHSV.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
308 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-241115-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
308 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGE
MAINLY TO TREES AND POWERLINES. PERISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING...URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THIS REGION. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...TIMELY REPORTS OF
FLOODING...STRONG WINDS...OR DAMAGE WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

DJN