Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
711 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 354 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/
A ZONAL...BUT SOMEWHAT WAVY MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
CONUS...WAS BRINGING A SERIES OF SYSTEMS IN WEST-EAST FASHION
ACROSS THE REGION. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND MID SOUTH. STRONG EARLY JUNE HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING MAINLY TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND NEAR THE QUAD CITIES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDED IN A NW-SE ORIENTATION FROM WEST OF ST LOUIS TO
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70.

PER THE CONVECTION FORMING MAINLY TO THE WEST WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTPUT FROM THE HI-RES MODELS...THE ARW/NNM BOTH INDICATED STORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN A NW-SE FASHION DURING THE EVENING.
TIMING FROM THE 12Z RUN WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z RUN HAD
FORECAST...BUT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WAS LARGER IN THE NEWER RUN.
THE 12 AND 18Z NAM...AND 12Z GFS WERE SIMILAR TO THE HI-RES. THUS
THINK THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN STRONG HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION...SOME OF THE STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BECOME
STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALSO MEANS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A SMALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME ELECTRICALLY ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY IF HIGH PRECIP
WATER AMOUNTS ARE PRESENT.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW (SUNDAY)...AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN THE PRECIP WILL BE GENERALLY
CONVECTION...WILL STAY WITH HIGH CHANCE RATHER THAN LIKELY POPS ON
SUN. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A BROKEN RECORD FORECAST CONTINUED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A MORE/
LESS ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING EASTWARD IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. GIVEN A SUMMER-LIKE
WARM AND HUMIDITY...IT IS TOUGH TO RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
EXTENDED. OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF/GFS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
IN THE MID WEEK. EVEN THOUGH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL INDICATIONS ARE FOR A DRYING TREND...
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN PER LONGER RANGE
OUTPUT GENERALLY TEMPERS RAIN CHANCES...AT THE EXPENSE OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND
KMSL...ALTHOUGH VIS AND CIGS COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER INTO MVFR
WITHIN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
809 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-081015-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
809 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS ADDITIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE IN NATURE...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL TAPPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS
LINGERING UPPER DISTURBANCES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
607 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

ALZ003-004-072330-
LAWRENCE AL-FRANKLIN AL-
607 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 607 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PHIL CAMPBELL...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF HALEYVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOULTON...PHIL CAMPBELL...COURTLAND...MT HOPE...NE SMITH...
THARPTOWN...HATTON...SPRUCE PINE...DUKETON AND LANDERSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALL UNSECURED ITEMS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 8755 3457 8752 3459 8751 3468 8735
      3445 8719 3430 8758 3431 8758 3431 8786
      3437 8790
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 240DEG 45KT 3434 8777

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
627 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

ALZ001-002-080000-
LAUDERDALE AL-COLBERT AL-
627 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAUDERDALE AND
NORTHWESTERN COLBERT COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 626 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR J
P COLEMAN STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...SHEFFIELD...J P COLEMAN STATE PARK...ST.
FLORIAN...UNDERWOOD-PETERSVILLE...WATERLOO...WRIGHT...EASTPORT AND
ZIP CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8819 3501 8789 3500 8762 3476 8761
      3479 8811 3489 8810 3492 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 269DEG 36KT 3490 8810

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
628 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

ALZ004-007-080000-
MORGAN AL-LAWRENCE AL-
628 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN AND EAST
CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 627 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MOULTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DECATUR...HARTSELLE...MOULTON...TRINITY...BASHAM...CADDO AND NEEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 8727 3462 8703 3462 8701 3460 8695
      3460 8694 3443 8692 3442 8726
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 258DEG 14KT 3451 8718

RSB