Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
322 AM PST TUE DEC 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DENSE FOG
THROUGH THE VALLEY UNTIL NOON EACH DAY. A STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE.
IN FACT...FRESNO HAS BEEN REPORTING 1/16TH OF A MILE FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS AND THE CHP HAS BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITY LESS THAN 200
FEET ALONG PARTS OF HWY 99...HWY 198...AND HWY 41. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPDATED AND IS NOW VALID UNTIL NOON TODAY.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND DRIVE CAREFULLY DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DENSE FOG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES...THE WEST
SIDE OF THE VALLEY...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY NEAR THE
GRAPEVINE. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THESE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING RESULTING IN A DRAMATIC DROP IN WIND SPEEDS.

OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MERCED COUNTY
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING...SPREADING SOUTH INTO FRESNO COUNTY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO KERN COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
RAIN ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE VALLEY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
JUST OVER A HALF OF AN INCH IN PARTS OF KERN COUNTY TO AROUND TWO
INCHES IN MERCED COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST
TO FALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING...FALLING TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW FEET OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TURN TO SHOWERY ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME A MUCH COOLER AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100 -
200 J/KG OVER THE VALLEY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ENDING ANY CHANCE OF RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND AND DRY
WEATHER.

THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

THE SHORT TERM AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WELL AS THE STORM NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW
TIMING ISSUES AND EXACT STORM RAINFALL/SNOW ACCUMULATION
DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH REGARDS
TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

AGAIN PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...DENSE FOG PRODUCING LIFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES THRU 19Z TUE AND AGAIN AFTER 04Z WED. OTHERWISE MVFR
VISIBILITIES WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO HAZE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 9 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN COUNTY.  FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING
UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA AND TULARE
COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-09       70:1950     38:1972     53:1902     23:1972
KFAT 12-10       74:1939     38:1972     58:1937     26:1951
KFAT 12-11       69:1933     39:1932     56:1937     25:1972

KBFL 12-09       74:1979     36:1972     52:1955     24:1923
KBFL 12-10       85:1912     41:1972     53:1937     24:1923
KBFL 12-11       81:1912     35:1932     58:1937     24:1923
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.

FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
CAZ093-096.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT CAZ089>091-095.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY CAZ089>092.

&&

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD