Wind Advisory 20, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
912 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 8 PM SHOWED THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS...LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE
69/US HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT IN OUR
AREA HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 MB/3 HOURS...WITH WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. ONGOING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE
COAST...WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
AND HAVE BUMPED DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES...WITH NEAR
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS BEHIND THE FRONT.
REGIONAL MOSAIC DOES SHOW LIGHT RETURNS SWINGING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER IF IT
DOES HOLD TOGETHER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
SUBLIMATE/EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO DROP OVERNIGHT /WITH SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES POTENTIALLY SEEING NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON METRO/...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP EVAPORATE ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S RAIN ON BRIDGES AND ROADWAYS. THIS WILL
MITIGATE AGAINST ANY POTENTIAL SLICK SPOTS...WITH THE MAIN INLAND
HAZARD BEHIND TONIGHT/S FRONT MANIFESTING TUESDAY MORNING AS A
POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO.
HAZARDS FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE WINDS...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE COAST POTENTIALLY WARRANTING A WIND
ADVISORY TOMORROW. HOWEVER... CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME APPEAR
BORDERLINE AND WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE BEFORE ANY
DECISIONS ARE MADE.

FINALLY...A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT REGARDING THE
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SO FAR IN NOVEMBER 2014
HAS BEEN RELEASED.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SHRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL
PROBABLY IMPACT KLBX...KHOU AND KGLS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER
TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT WILL DEAL WITH LIFR CIGS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. AFTER 06Z...CIGS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY TO VFR BY 12-14Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCT SHRA CONTINUING OVER SE TX THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. STRONGEST STORMS REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION AS WE
STAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW/UNDER THE OVERRUNNING. NOT
TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE SHORT TERM FCST WITH THE STRONG FRONT
MOVING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING IN ACROSS
THE REGION AND CLEARING SKIES/DECREASING WINDS TOMORROW TO HELP
SET THE STAGE FOR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TOMORROW
NIGHT/TUES MORNING. PER LOCAL CRITERIA...FREEZE WARNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES. PER CURRENT MIN TEMP
GRIDS...OUR NORTHERN ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH A HARD FREEZE WARNING
FOR TUES MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW(IF) SKIES CLEAR
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGING A BIT MORE WITH THESE
RUNS AS THEY ARE NOW GOING WITH TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS RATHER GET-
TING IT OVER IN ONE SHOT. WILL BE KEEPING POPS IN THE CHC RANGE
AS THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THINGS TO SETTLE DOWN. 41

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING WHICH SHOULD BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE POSTED WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE BAYS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR MOST OF MONDAY MORNING WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER TX ON TUE AND THEN MOVES EAST WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WED
AND INCREASE MORE ON THUR. MAY HAVE BORDERLINE CAUTION CONDITIONS
THUR GOING INTO FRI BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF FOR FRI. GFS NOW SHOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI WHERE THE
ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE A FRONT. THIS IS OPPOSITE OF YESTERDAY. FOR
NOW WILL NOT BRING FRONT INTO AREA BUT MAY STILL HAVE EAST WINDS
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

TIDES...AFTER HAVING ABOVE NORMAL TIDES BY ABOUT 1 FOOT...TIDE
LEVELS SHOULD BE DROPPING BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
NW/N WINDS ARE EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD DRIVE TIDES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDES TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET BELOW NORMAL. A
LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY UNTIL TIDES
CAN ADJUST.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  32  49  27  51 /  30  20   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  37  51  30  52 /  70  50   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  43  53  39  53 /  70  60  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
     LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
438 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-172245-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
438 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IT WILL TURN BREEZY
AND COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED ALONG
THE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WIND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED ALONG THE COAST EARLY ON MONDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FREEZE WARNINGS MIGHT BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH INLAND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-172245-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
438 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

GALE WARNINGS WILL BE EFFECT BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.