Wind Advisory 16, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
421 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS ALMOST ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COVERED IN STRATUS THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHWARDS THIS MORNING JUST TO THE WEST OF SAN
FRANCISCO. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. 850 MB
HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS A NICE WEDGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS ARKANSAS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA
ALLOWS GULF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY UP AND AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST. 850 TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY SINCE YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME BUT THE CHANGE IS MINIMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON A DRY LINE WILL BE MOVING TO THE
EAST WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE AND SURFACE FRONT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO POOL ALLOWING PWATS TO APPROACH 1.50". GFS AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AS 850 TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 17 C. CAPE VALUE APPROACH 2500 J/KG. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN
THE SHEAR PROFILE HAIL AND AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY THREATS. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE TODAY
THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS
PUSHED EASTWARDS TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO FALL INTO THE LFQ. AT
THE SAME TIME THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
PLACED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WOULD PUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE
RRQ. THIS SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE FAVORS HIGHER POPS OVER THE
AREA.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST AROUND MID MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON SUNDAY ALLOWING THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO PULL
NORTHWARDS. THIS WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT TO START
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FORM A
COASTAL LOW NEAR THE GALVESTON AREA. THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL
ONLY HELP TO ENHANCE RAINFALL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO FORM
ANOTHER SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE OVER THE REGION. POPS WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO BE RAISED IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. ON MONDAY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE DIVES SOUTHWARDS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DIVE THE SHORT WAVE
A TAD FARTHER TO THE WEST KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE
TROUGH QUICKER TO THE EAST. IF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE RIGHT
RAIN COULD HANG AROUND ON MONDAY. 23

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1/2 FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY GO UP TO 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS WINDS/SEAS INCREASE. CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
THE MARINE ZONES TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES HAS
REDUCED THE THREAT FOR DENSE SEA FOG. THE THREAT FOR FOG SHOULD END
EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE COASTAL LOW WILL PUSH NE ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  70  82  54  72 /  20  20  40  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  70  82  58  75 /  10  20  40  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  68  77  65  74 /  10  10  30  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COLORADO...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...
     WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ213-214-235>238-022045-
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-HARRIS-JACKSON-
MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
342 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED BELOW
1 NM AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIODS OF SEA FOG...SOME DENSE...WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY FOR INLAND
AREAS WHERE GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 45 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS...SEAS AND TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES CAN
BE EXPECTED. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>212-226-227-022045-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
342 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 WHERE WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO
GROVETON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.