Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS
LINE CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS DURING THE EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY STARTING TO FIZZLE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AROUND 9
OR 10 PM. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TO NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT PUSHING IT
ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM STALL THE FRONT
THROUGH A BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO LOVELADY LINE. BEHIND THE FRONT
MUCH DRIER PWAT AIR WILL START TO FILTER DOWN. GFS IS SHOWING
PWATS LESS THAN 1.00" CROSSING INTO HOUSTON COUNTY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY EVENING PWATS LESS THAN 0.75" (2 TO 3 SD BELOW
NORMAL) CROSS INTO HOUSTON COUNTY. THIS EXTREMELY DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO THE RAIN INLAND.
TOWARDS THE COAST 2.00" + PWAT AIR WILL REMAIN ALLOWING THE RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH LOWER DEWPOINT
TOWARDS THE NORTH. BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT WINDS, LOW DEWPOINTS, AND
CLEAR SKIES LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

ON THURSDAY THE FRONT WILL FINALLY WASH OUT ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW
TO RETURN TO THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
FRIDAY THANKS TO THE LOW PWAT AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. NOT UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL PWATS START TO RECOVER. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARDS THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
LOUISIANA BRINGING A WEDGE OF POSITIVE VORTICITY WITH IT. AS OF
NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN FROM THIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA BUT IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES. 23

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR/AROUND THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE FRONT LINGERS NEARBY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
WASH OUT ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE
OUT WEST. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND.
42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  97  68  96  72 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  95  72  95  74 /  50  20  20  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  89  79  92  82 /  30  40  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-122100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
351 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING AND ALSO ALONG A SEABREEZE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MERGE OR COLLIDE LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE VALUES ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...AND
SHOULD THESE MERGERS OCCUR...STORM STRENGTH WILL BECOME ENHANCED
AND RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED STREET FLOOD LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT.
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH ARE A SECONDARY POSSIBILITY. THE MOST
FAVORED TIME PERIOD FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM
AND MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE GOING ON
BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THAT TIME PERIOD. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WILL AVERAGE 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH...WITH LOCALIZED 2+ INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT AS IT EVENTUALLY MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-122100-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
351 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME STORMS
COULD PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE COAST TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL IT EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE STRONGER IN AND NEAR STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

TXZ163-176-195-196-198-112100-
GRIMES TX-BURLESON TX-MADISON TX-HOUSTON TX-BRAZOS TX-
304 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HOUSTON...BRAZOS...MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN WALKER...NORTHWESTERN GRIMES...BURLESON AND WESTERN
TRINITY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 303 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FOREST TO NEAR
ROCKDALE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...CROCKETT...MADISONVILLE...CALDWELL...
AUSTONIO...LOVELADY...SNOOK...BEDIAS...KURTEN...KENNARD...WIXON
VALLEY...MIDWAY...KYLE FIELD...NORMANGEE...IOLA...DEANVILLE...
CHRIESMAN AND NORTH ZULCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3073 9662 3070 9655 3074 9647 3093 9633
      3107 9605 3109 9577 3124 9572 3152 9511
      3139 9496 3104 9546 3091 9569 3086 9586
      3080 9587 3032 9669 3032 9674 3055 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 297DEG 33KT 3147 9510 3060 9702

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

TXZ163-112045-
HOUSTON TX-
305 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

AT 305 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES EAST OF GRAPELAND...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF CROCKETT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAPELAND AND WECHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3158 9526 3157 9520 3159 9517 3155 9515
      3145 9569 3146 9573 3147 9574 3151 9574
      3152 9565 3155 9564 3159 9527
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 314DEG 24KT 3147 9531