Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1221 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY JUST TWEAKED ONGOING TAFS TO ADJUST FOR LATEST MOVEMENT OF
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA. EXPECT WINDSHIFT TO N W/ GUSTS TO 25-30KT ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF LINE ALONG WITH MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL FOR 15-45
MIN. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
PERSIST IN ITS WAKE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY GO VFR
BEHIND THE LINE BUT OBS UPSTREAM SHOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
FILTER BACK IN.

OVERALL...FCST GUIDANCE CAN'T REALLY BE TRUSTED IN THE SHORT TERM
AS THINGS ARE LARGELY BEING DRIVEN ON THE MESOSCALE. GENERALLY
BROUGHT AN END TO THE PRECIP MID MORNING WITH SKIES TRANSITIONING
TO LOW END MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWERED CIGS BACK INTO IFR
TERRITORY THIS EVENING AND BROUGHT WINDS UP AS COOLER AIRMASS
ARRIVES. ADDED VCSH'S IN TAFS OVERNIGHT IN CASE WE GET ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION W/ UPPER TROF AXIS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  68  49  77  53 /  40  20  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  72  53  78  56 /  50  30  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  72  62  75  65 /  50  40  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...COLORADO...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

TXZ164-177>179-199-200-213-214-226-227-235>238-132115-
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WHARTON-
408 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ163-176-195>198-210>212-132115-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-
408 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LINE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR REGION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.5
AND 3.5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS APPROACHING 5 INCHES. THE
GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY BE SEVERE...WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY IF
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
844 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212-130245-
TRINITY TX-BURLESON TX-POLK TX-SAN JACINTO TX-MADISON TX-WALKER TX-
WALLER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-GRIMES TX-
COLORADO TX-AUSTIN TX-HOUSTON TX-
844 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN WALLER...WALKER...NORTHERN
COLORADO...BURLESON...NORTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WASHINGTON...HOUSTON...MADISON AND GRIMES COUNTIES UNTIL
945 PM CDT...

AT 842 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BRENHAM TO MADISONVILLE
TO NEAR APPLE SPRINGS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...HUNTSVILLE...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...
CROCKETT...MADISONVILLE...CALDWELL...APPLE SPRINGS...AUSTONIO...
WASHINGTON...TRINITY...ONALASKA...GRAPELAND...SOMERVILLE...
GROVETON...NEW WAVERLY...POINT BLANK...LOVELADY AND MONTGOMERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STORM MERGERS MAY ALLOW DISCRETE STORM CELLS TO INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN
TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY .

&&

LAT...LON 3159 9517 3133 9490 3115 9485 3112 9477
      3057 9536 2993 9656 2994 9656 3026 9668
      3029 9664 3034 9672 3063 9682 3073 9662
      3074 9647 3093 9633 3107 9605 3109 9577
      3127 9573 3132 9566 3150 9574 3155 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 264DEG 74KT 3171 9487 3035 9649

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
951 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-211-212-130345-
TRINITY TX-BURLESON TX-POLK TX-SAN JACINTO TX-MADISON TX-WALKER TX-
WALLER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-GRIMES TX-AUSTIN TX-
HOUSTON TX-
951 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 947 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DIME BOX NORTHEASTWARD TO LUFKIN...AND MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
CELL MERGERS COULD INTENSIFY DISCRETE STORMS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1 TO
3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE NUISANCE FLOODING OF ROADWAYS. IF TRAVELING...AVOID
FLOODED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...HUNTSVILLE...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...
LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...CALDWELL...APPLE SPRINGS...WASHINGTON...
TRINITY...ONALASKA...CORRIGAN...SOMERVILLE...GROVETON...NEW
WAVERLY...POINT BLANK...LOVELADY...MONTGOMERY AND SNOOK.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3062 9684 3073 9662 3070 9655 3074 9647
      3082 9641 3137 9496 3129 9488 3115 9485
      3106 9456 3101 9465 3085 9462 3002 9654
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 260DEG 119KT 3138 9456 3042 9679

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1117 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

TXZ177>179-198>200-212-213-130545-
GRIMES TX-HARRIS TX-SAN JACINTO TX-POLK TX-WALKER TX-LIBERTY TX-
WALLER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
1117 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1113 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PLANTERSVILLE TO
LIVINGSTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. THERE ARE INDIVIDUAL CELLS
MERGING WITH THIS LINE TO BRIEFLY ENHANCE THE INTENSITY. WHERE THESE
MERGERS OCCUR STORMS MAY PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS AND PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...HUMBLE...KATY...TOMBALL...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...JERSEY
VILLAGE...DAYTON...WILLIS...LIVINGSTON...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...
BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PINEHURST...ALDINE...
SPRING VALLEY...GREATER GREENSPOINT...NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...GREATER
HEIGHTS AND SPRING BRANCH NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3048 9473 3012 9461 2968 9564 2978 9581
      3024 9592 3092 9464 3049 9454
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 348DEG 23KT 3094 9457 3025 9587

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