River Flood Warning 9, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.AVIATION...
GETTING OBSERVED GUSTS TO AROUND 32 KT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU TO SOUTHERN HALF OF SE TX AND HOUSTON
METRO AREA. WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON THE ISLAND. JUST
UPDATED ONGOING TAFS WITH TIMING OF LINE. EXPECT MAINY STRATIFORM
RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO PERSIST FOR A COUPLE (OR MANY)
HOURS BEHIND THE LEADING LINE. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN FCST BEYOND
NEAR TERM BUT SUSPECT MOST AREAS MIGHT SEE A BREAK...FOLLOWED BY
SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE AFTN AS ATMOS RECOVERS AND
DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ITS MAGIC. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
PRECIP FILLING BACK IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT - SOME WITH WHAT
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. KEEP IN MIND MOST OF THIS
GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED RATHER POORLY SO FAR WHICH ISN'T REALLY
UNEXPECTED W/ MESOSCALE PROCESSES PREVAILING. BUT WITHOUT
DISTINCT S/W, PRECIP TYPICALLY CONSOLIDATES CLOSER TO THE LOW/TROF
ITSELF DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THESE PATTERNS - THEN EXPAND
OUTWARD WITH HEATING. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE I'D EXPECT IT MAINLY
NE OF SE TX SITES TONIGHT. JUST WANNA THROW THE POSSIBILITY OF
THINGS WE'RE LOOKING AT.  47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/
ALL OF THE ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. A
SLOWING LINE OF MODERATE RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...JUST
BEGINNING TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.
QPF FOR MOST COMMUNITIES IS TO RECEIVE 24 HOUR AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2
TO 4 INCHES...LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES IS CERTAINLY NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE 25H FLOW IS BECOMING VERY DIFFULENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH ANOTHER SOUTHWESTERN
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO PASS NORTHEASTWARD/PARALLEL ACROSS
THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE LATTER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PWATS VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES...WITHIN A 1-2K
J/KG CAPE ENVIRONMENT...INDICATE THAT THE RESIDENT AIR MASS CAN
THERMODYNAMICALLY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY OF
CONVECTION THAT WILL PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. STORMS WILL BE FED WITH MIDDLE 70 COASTAL COUNTY DEW POINT
AIR CURRENTLY BEING FORCED INLAND UPON 15-20 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLIES.
WHILE THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CELL TRAINING
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES WILL
OCCUR...ALL CURRENT SIGNS POINT TO THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THESE COUNTIES CAN HANDLE UP TO 3 TO 4 INCHES WITHIN
6 HOURS BEFORE GOING INTO FLOOD. DUE TO THE YESTERDAY'S HEAVY
RAIN AMOUNTS...MORE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL FLOOD SOONER IF
SHORT TERM 1 TO 3 HOUR 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS OCCUR TODAY.

HIGH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH MID-WEEK
AS THE UPPER LOW'S TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. OBVIOUS CONVECTIVE TIMING WILL BE DETERMINED BY TODAY'S
ACTIVITY BUT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COAST TOMORROW. CONVERGENT LOWER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS AS IT SLIDES INTO EASTERN TEXAS MAY FOCUS HIGHER MID-
WEEK RAIN ALONG THE COAST/GLS BAY AND POINTS UP THE COAST. IF HIGH
RAINFALL DOESN'T OCCUR WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...THIS COULD
BE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR THESE (COASTAL) COUNTIES IN MAKING UP FOR A
10 INCH ANNUAL RAIN DEFICIT.

MORE OVERCAST AND RAIN WILL REGULATE DAILY TEMPERATURES TO THE
MEAN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...LOW TO MID 70 MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
EITHER OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE OR WITHIN EARLY DAY RAIN EPISODES.
A BROAD UPPER LOW...OR GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER HEIGHT
FIELD...WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TX/SABINE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERN-BASED RIDGING BEGINS TO NOSE EASTWARD DURING
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JUNE. A SOAKED END TO THE MONTH OF MAY
LEADS TO A DRY AND VERY WARM START TO JUNE. DRY AND SUNNIER DAYS
LEAD TO AFTERNOONS ONCE AGAIN WARMING UP INTO THE AVERAGE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. 31

MARINE...
EXTENDED CAUTION FLAGS INTO EARLY AFTN WITH MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS CURRENTLY PREVAILING IN GULF AND BAYS. SHORT TERM ISSUE WILL
BE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THRU SE TX. IF CURRENT SEWD SPEED CONTINUES
EXPECT THIS LINE TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 7 AM. WILL PROBABLY
SEE A BRIEF WINDSHIFT TO OFFSHORE DIRECTION IF THIS OCCURS
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TRANSITION BACK ONSHORE. NONE OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS AS THEY HAVE IT SLOWING/STALLING INLAND. BUT IT
HAS YET TO SLOW AND HAVE TO GO W/SHORT TERM TRENDS W/THIS.
WINDS/SEAS HIGHER IN TSTMS. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WX PATTERN
SUPPORTS LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS PREVAILING - BUT ALSO
SUPPORTS HARD TO TIME PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK THAT'LL AFFECT WINDS AND SEAS AT TIMES.
47

AVIATION...
INHERITED GOOD SET OF TAFS AND KEPT THEM MOSTLY INTACT FOR THE
12Z PACKAGE WITH MINOR TIMING UPDATES FOR THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA.
EXPECT THIS LINE TO MAKE ITS WAY THRU THE HOUSTON TERMINALS FROM
1030-1200Z ASSUMING CURRENT MOVEMENT PERSISTS (NOTE UNCERTAINTY IN
MARINE SECTION). LEADING EDGE MIGHT HAVE BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO N/NW
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AS IT MOVES IN ALONG W/LOWER VISBY. PATTERN
SUPPORTS PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT TIMING
OF WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT. FOR TODAY...GOING TO KEEP PRECIP GOING
INTO THE AFTN, BUT ALSO WOULNDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A BREAK
FOLLOWED BY REDEVELOPMENT WITH LATE AFTN HEATING. JUST GONNA HAVE
TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  70  82  70  85 /  90  40  50  30  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  71  83  71  84 /  90  40  60  50  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  73  81  74  82 /  70  30  60  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
549 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-281100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
549 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LONG LINE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...PUTTING DOWN AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ON ITS
SOUTHEASTERN TREK TO THE COAST. ALBEIT HARD TO TIME...RAIN IS
FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN TWO TO FOUR INCHES
LIKELY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
WHERE LARGER THUNDERSTORM CELLS SLOW OR TRAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND A NEAR STATIONARY NORTHERN TEXAS UPPER
LOW WILL INDUCE PERIODS OF REGIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. DAILY...OR 24 HOUR...RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL TYPICALLY RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY UNDER AN INCH TO NEAR TWO
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TWO TO FOUR INCH AMOUNTS. OTHER THAN THE
FLOODING THREAT...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF GREATER THAN 50
MPH IN GUST AND/OR AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITHIN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CELLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS NEED TO BE ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER
OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE WEEK.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-281100-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
549 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THAT HAVE PROMPTED CAUTION FLAGS WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF A LINE OF CONVECTION TIMED TO REACH THE COAST
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL BAY AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN
AND LIFT...RESPECTIVELY...IN THE VICINITY OF ANY MARITIME THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIODS OF MARITIME MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. MARINERS NEED TO BE
ALERT TO ANY VICINITY STORM AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME ROUGH...RESPECTIVELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
MARITIME INTERESTS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE FORECAST...OR FREQUENTLY
MONITOR RADAR...TO ENSURE WATER SAFETY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

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