Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

911 
WGUS74 KHGX 182041
FFSHGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TXC071-167-201-182049-
/O.CAN.KHGX.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140918T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-GALVESTON TX-CHAMBERS TX-
341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS...NORTHWESTERN
GALVESTON AND NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO 
RECEDE. WEATHER IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE AN IMMINENT THREAT TO 
LIFE OR PROPERTY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES AND DO 
NOT DRIVE ACROSS WATER COVER ROADS. ALLOW THEM TO RECEDE BEFORE 
CROSSING.

LAT...LON 2967 9489 2971 9499 2970 9502 2966 9500
      2963 9502 2960 9498 2954 9502 2949 9491
      2941 9515 2964 9523 2976 9507 2970 9506
      2972 9503 2971 9502 2976 9505 2988 9491
      2988 9493 2989 9490

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE AT KIAH AND KHOU THROUGH
THE EVENING BUT AM EXPECTING CONDS TO DETERIORATE AT KCLL/KUTS AND
KGLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HGX CWA. LEANED TOWARD A HRRR/NAM12 AND RAP BLEND
WHICH SETS UP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH EAST WINDS OVER LAND AND
SE WINDS OVER THE WATER. SHRA SHOULD REDEVELOP SOUTH OF I-10
BETWEEN 08-11Z FRIDAY AND EXPAND INLAND. GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH DRYING FRI MORNING. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW-MOVING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
CELLS...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...THAT HAVE PRODUCED NUISANCE
FLOODING AROUND HOUSTON METRO. COMMUNITIES OF WESTERN HARRIS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...AND SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTIES HAVE
RECEIVED THE HIGHEST RAINFALL THIS MORNING. UPPER LAYER SOIL
SATURATION INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA ARE THE COUNTIES
THAT CAN PICK UP THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL BEFORE DEALING WITH
FLOODING ISSUES. THE CORE RAINS ARE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND THIS IS THE GOOD NEWS. THE
LESS GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE IS WESTERN COUNTY PRECIPITATION RE-
DEVELOPMENT...WITH AN APPROACHING NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNCHANGED AND...OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF
MOMENTS OF RESPITE AFTER PASSING RAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY
RE-CHARGES...THE SITUATION WILL BE OF RETURNING PRECIPITATION. IT
ALL DEPENDS UPON THE NEAR TERM AREAL EXTENT AND IMPACT OF AFTERNOON
RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS IN DETERMINING WHETHER
THE FLOOD WATCH NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY. RAIN AND OVERCAST
EQUATE TO MANY ONLY ACHIEVING THE MID 80S FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY TO
RELATIVELY DRIER WEEKEND CONDITIONS. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND POINTS SOUTHWESTWARD...OR WHERE THE
HIGHER MOISTURE RESIDES. THIS ASSUMPTION IS BASED UPON A DRIER AIR
AIR MASS OVER THE SABINE REGION MODELED TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
CWA BEHIND A VERY WEAK NORTHEASTERN BOUNDARY PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WET FCST TO CONTINUE TODAY BUT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF FLOODING.
GROUNDS WET FROM RAINS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL RAINS TODAY WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ALREADY SEEING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING
AS THE CONTINUED WAA FLOW COLLIDES WITH THE MORE S/SE MOVING DISTURBANCE
COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX. ALSO SEEING HINTS OF YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRYING TO DIVE DOWN FROM NORTH TX. THESE SYSTEMS COMBINED
WITH THIS STILL VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE SHOULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THRU THIS AFTN/EVE.

PER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE REST OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND FORECAST SHOULD
SEE SOME DRYING BUT CONSENSUS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS NEXT COLD FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PROGS APPEAR TO BE HAVING ISSUES WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND MAY BE EXAGGERATING ITS IMPACT ON THE
MAIN UPPER FLOW/PATTERN. AS SUCH WILL NOT BE CHANGING THE EXTENDED
FCSTS (TOO MUCH) OF FROPA MON (ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDTIONS
NEXT WEEK). 41

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
AND MAY HAVE A CLUSTER MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON
FRIDAY...AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SETX/LA AND WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY RELAX ON
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD (IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT-FAVORING IT
ATTM) MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY OF COURSE DEPENDING
ON HOW WELL THE MODELS HANDLE ODILE AND THE NEXT TROUGH THROUGH
THE EASTERN U.S.. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  88  71  91  73 /  60  50  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  88  72  90  74 /  60  70  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  86  79  88  79 /  60  60  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1211 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-191715-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
1211 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM CDT....

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CLUSTERS OF MODERATE RAIN CELLS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY TRAINING NORTHEASTWARD WILL EXACERBATE
FLOODING ISSUES IN THOSE COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE ALREADY ACCUMULATED
UP AN AVERAGE TWO TO FOUR INCH RAIN AMOUNTS THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
FIVE TO SEVEN INCH TWO DAY AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY...ANY RAIN OVER THESE
AREAS WILL QUICKLY INDUCE THE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS.
AS OF NOW...THERE ARE NO BAYOU FLOODING CONCERNS BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

ALSO...FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ANY FUNNEL CLOUD MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH
DOWN AS A WEAK TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE RAIN IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP THE
FLOODING THREAT ALIVE THROUGH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO WANE BY LATE FRIDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER WEEKEND EXPECTED ACROSS MANY
INTERIOR COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD RELAY ANY REPORTS OF THE FLOODING OF VEHICLES...MAJOR
ROADWAYS...AND OR HOMES TO THE HOUSTON GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
121 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E HILSHIRE VILLAGE    29.78N  95.45W
09/18/2014                   HARRIS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGH WATER AT OLD KAY ROAD AND I-610 WEST LOOP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1400204

PK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
136 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W LEAGUE CITY         29.49N  95.15W
09/18/2014  E4.00 INCH       GALVESTON          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            3-4 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ON THE ROADWAY AT THE
            CORNER OF FM 518 AND BAY AREA BLVD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1400205

PK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
142 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W LEAGUE CITY         29.49N  95.15W
09/18/2014                   GALVESTON          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            3-4 INCHES OF WATER ON THE ROADWAY AT THE CORNER OF FM
            518 AND BAY AREA BLVD.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER HGX1400205

PK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
144 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLEVELAND               30.34N  95.08W
09/18/2014                   LIBERTY            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VARIOUS STREETS ARE FLOODED IN THE CITY OF CLEVELAND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1400206

PK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
148 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STAFFORD                29.62N  95.56W
09/18/2014                   FORT BEND          TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGH WATER REPORTED IN THE 13600 BLOCK OF FM1092.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1400207

PK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
221 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEAGUE CITY             29.49N  95.11W
09/18/2014                   GALVESTON          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS STREETS ARE FLOODED WITH AS MUCH AS 5-8 INCHES
            OF WATER IN SOME AREAS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1400208

PK