Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PCPN OUT WEST STILL HOLDING TOGETHER THIS LATE MORNING AND BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE GRIDS TO INCREASE POP
NUMBERS FOR THE CWA THIS AFTN. LINGERING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AT/
AROUND JACKSON COUNTY PROVING TO BE THE WINNER SO FAR TODAY WITH
REGARD TO RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014/

THE LAST FULL WORK WEEK OF MAY IS SETTING UP TO BE WET FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED IN
NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...INTO THE NORTHEAST TEXAS AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ALONG THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES STARTING ON TUESDAY AS
THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE LEVELS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO TWO
INCHES)... FAVORABLE/SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL WINDS...AND THE VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
MORNING'S FORECAST WILL CARRY THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THINK THAT RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK COULD
EASILY REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...WITH EVEN HIGHER TOTALS
LIKELY IN AND AROUND MUCH OF THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA.
FLOOD WATCHES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR THIS
EVENT. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP A MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER OUR
AREA AS THE WEEK COMES TO AN END...SO WILL GO WITH ONLY GRADUALLY
LOWERING POPS AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  71  83  70  83 /  40  40  60  50  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  72  84  71  84 /  40  40  50  40  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  75  83  74  83 /  20  20  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
358 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-271200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
358 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WITH A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE STATE...EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE WEEK...SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS COULD RECEIVE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH TOTALS OF AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
FLOOD WATCHES MIGHT BE NEEDED. IN ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN EVENT...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED DURING THE WEEK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

TXZ226-235-261615-
JACKSON TX-WHARTON TX-
1015 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

AT 1013 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER GANADO...OR 8 MILES EAST OF EDNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
OTHER STRONG STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WERE LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF EDNA MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD
IMPACT TRAVEL ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 59.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL CAMPO...EDNA...GANADO...DANEVANG...VANDERBILT...MORALES...LAKE
TEXANA DAM...CORDELE AND LOUISE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2933 9637 2908 9614 2877 9668 2883 9672
      2885 9670 2886 9672 2889 9674 2892 9678
      2896 9681 2898 9681 2901 9683 2904 9687
      2907 9689
TIME...MOT...LOC 1513Z 237DEG 25KT 2901 9651

39