Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
928 PM HST SUN NOV 9 2014

.UPDATE...
CANCELED HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL SUBSIDES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT. DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHT
TIME LAND BREEZES WITH LIMITED SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER FINE WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE STATE...AS A COOL AND DRY
AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS. THERE ARE SOME STABLE LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING IN THE ISLAND VICINITY THIS EVENING...THOUGH LITTLE...IF
ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

A SFC RIDGE NW OF THE ISLANDS WILL SAG ESE NEAR THE STATE BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER. THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC
WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO
DEVELOP. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND
STABLE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION PRODUCED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED...AND MAINLY OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS.

CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THE
NORTHERN ISLANDS LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN
DISSIPATE. BUT THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISSIPATING FRONT
MAY LINGER AROUND THE NORTHERN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MOREOVER...A BROADER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTH. WINDS MAY
ACTUALLY STAY SOMEWHAT NORTHERLY OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE FIRST WEAK
FRONT ARRIVES...THOUGH REMAIN LIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST WEAK FRONT MAY AFFECT MAINLY KAUAI AND POSSIBLY EVEN REACH
OAHU BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND APPROACHING FRONT MAY BRING
MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE STATE...WITH POSSIBLY MORE EXTENSIVE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WEAK SYSTEMS CERTAINLY MAKE THE
FORECAST TRICKY...AS THE TIMING AS WELL AS HOW MUCH OF THE WEATHER
THESE SYSTEMS MAY BRING TO THE STATE. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR THE STATE FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THE CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORM IS LOW. SHALL AWAIT NEWER MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING MUCH
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...
WITH NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. WITH LIGHT BACKGROUND FLOW IN PLACE ON MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM NEAR-SHORE BUOY JUST NORTH OF OAHU INDICATE
THE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS DECREASING IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THEREFORE BELIEVE SURF HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL
LATER THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE COMBINED SEAS FOR THE WINDWARD
WATERS AS WELL AS KAUAI AND KAIWI CHANNELS WILL ALSO BE LOWERED TO
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL AS WELL. SHALL UPDATE THE PACKAGE
IN THE COMING HOUR FOR THE CANCELLATION OF BOTH OF THESE ADVISORIES.

A RATHER LARGE...AND LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PEAKING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS WILL
EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS AND WILL LIKELY APPROACH LOW END WARNING
LEVELS ALONG MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THIS PENDING SWELL
WILL ALSO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL CRAFT SEAS CONDITIONS TO
THE EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS AS WELL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

AVIATION...JACOBSON
REST...HUI