Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
352 PM HST WED FEB 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT. STABLE WEATHER WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT USHERS IN SHIFTING
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT WITH
THIS FEATURE...WITH AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
SOUNDING AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT A STABLE AND RELATIVELY
DRY AIRMASS PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
FEATURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STABILITY IS ALSO
INCREASING ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST. THESE
FACTORS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY FROM THE NORTH FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING EARLY THURSDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL LEAD
TO A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY...BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
WITH SHOWER CHANCES ON THE UPTICK. MID RANGE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DRAGGING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS NOW...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND BE ENHANCED BY DEEP MOISTURE
MIGRATING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL LINGERS
REGARDING THE SITUATION BECAUSE THERE IS LITTLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT INDICATED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS LACK OF SUPPORT COULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. IN EITHER
CASE...THE WEEKEND LOOKS WETTER...ESPECIALLY THE SECOND HALF.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAKENING FRONT MOVING SE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL BRING
ISOL/TEMPO MVFR THIS EVENING ALONG N FACING SLOPES AND INTERIOR
AREAS. ACCELERATED NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT MT RIDGES...VALLEYS AND
EXPOSED COASTLINES. STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FEET INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MIXED PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT ON INTO
THURSDAY WITH NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY A LARGER...LIKELY NEAR WARNING
LEVEL...NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTH POINT ON THE
BIG ISLAND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY IN MAALAEA BAY...THE PAILOLO
CHANNEL...AND THE KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST
THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...CANTIN
AVIATION...MORRISON