High Surf Advisory 9, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN JAN 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
PASSING SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR MAUI OR THE BIG ISLAND ON MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
DOWN NEAR THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY
NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
STATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BAND IS PRESENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE GARDEN ISLE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW JUST
REACHING WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF OAHU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN AND STALL OUT NEAR MAUI OR THE BIG ISLAND BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PASSING SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE FRONT IS RATHER SHALLOW SO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN NEAR THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WHERE THERE IS AVAILABLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE THE BIG ISLAND WOULD HAVE
THE BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING BY FAR NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEAR THE STATE MAY KEEP WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWERS A BIT MORE FREQUENT WITH A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OF SOME LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

LOOKING INTO THE LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE ISLAND VICINITY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP.

&&

.MARINE...
READINGS FROM BUOY 1 SHOW THE NEW NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED AND
WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES TODAY.
THIS SWELL WILL LOWER SLOWLY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF SMALL TO MODERATE SIZE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SWELLS THIS
WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHWEST SWELL SINCE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 10 FEET OR
HIGHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT JUST W OF OAHU WILL MOVE E TODAY...GRADUALLY SLOWING
AND STALLING NEAR MAUI/BIG ISLAND. CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS...BUT
LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST AS THE FRONT STALLS. AIRMETS FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ON KAUAI...AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON OAHU. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT MAUI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.

LOW-LEVEL WAVE CLOUDS ARE APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OAHU AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE CLOUDS ARE
A SIGN OF POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE...WHICH SUPPORTS THE
TURBULENCE AIRMET THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. THE 12Z LIHUE
SOUNDING AND 19Z ACARS SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS
BELOW A SECOND ELEVATED INVERSION. THIS MAY LEAD TO MODERATE
MID-LEVEL TURBULENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...BRAVENDER