Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Honolulu, HI

719 
WGHW70 PHFO 050318
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
518 PM HST SAT OCT 4 2014

HIC003-050515-
/O.CON.PHFO.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-141005T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HONOLULU HI-
518 PM HST SAT OCT 4 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN
HONOLULU COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM HST...

RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND 
NORTHWEST OAHU AS OF 506 PM HST...WITH RATES NEAR 3 INCHES PER HOUR 
NOTED IN THE WAIANAE BASIN AND NEAR PACIFIC PALISADES. SPOTTERS ALSO 
REPORT LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING INCLUDES THE ENTIRE ISLAND OF OAHU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 715 PM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2180 15792 2122 15752 2122 15816 2160 15838

$$

POWELL

919 
WGHW70 PHFO 050515
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
715 PM HST SAT OCT 4 2014

HIC003-050522-
/O.EXP.PHFO.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-141005T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HONOLULU HI-
715 PM HST SAT OCT 4 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN
HONOLULU COUNTY...

WEATHER RADAR AND RAIN GAGES SHOWED THAT THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE ENDED.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

THE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING HAVE SUBSIDED...BUT RUNOFF IS STILL 
OCCURRING AND SOME STREAMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

LAT...LON 2180 15792 2122 15752 2122 15816 2160 15838

$$

HOUSTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST SAT OCT 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND THE
PROBABILITY OF LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES HIGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR MAUKA AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND INTERIOR THIS EVENING. TRADE WINDS MAY RETURN BY MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 42N134W...FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH 30N150W...23N160W AND 20N170W. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS RIDGE
TO THE ISLANDS IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...A CONDITION WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR AWHILE SINCE WE
EXPECT THE RIDGE TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OR POSSIBLY OVER THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BUT SLOW-MOVING FRONT ABOUT 370 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI IS THE SURFACE FEATURE KEEPING THE RIDGE SQUEEZED
SOUTHEAST NEAR US. ITS PROXIMITY HAS WEAKENED OUR WINDS...BUT IT IS
TOO FAR AWAY FOR ITS ADVERSE WEATHER TO AFFECT US DIRECTLY.
HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGHING JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS HAS DESTABILIZED
OUR AIRMASS...PROMPTING US TO PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BIG ISLAND INTERIOR THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
MAUKA SHOWERS WHICH FORM EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED...BUT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED EACH DAY DUE TO BORDERLINE CONDITIONS.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE LIFTING NORTHWARD BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LIGHT TRADE WINDS MAY RETURN STARTING
LATE WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RETURNING
TRADES...WITH ECMWF SHOWING TRADE WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE
LEVELS. GFS KEEPS THEM LIGHT. OUR FORECAST KEEPS THEM ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH A NOD TO GFS...IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE ACTING TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
ISLAND INTERIORS. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN TCU/CB MAY GENERATE
BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. BOTH SEA BREEZES AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING THEN REDEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF SMALL TO MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE NEAR AVERAGE SURF HEIGHTS ALONG MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE STATE THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT
SOUTH SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY. A NEW SMALL SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING MONDAY WILL PRODUCE A SMALL BUMP IN SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE ISLANDS FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LONGER PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE YET ANOTHER BOOST TO SURF
HEIGHTS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES STARTING NEXT THURSDAY.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...BEDAL