Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Honolulu, HI

929 
WGHW70 PHFO 061134
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
134 AM HST MON JAN 6 2014

HIC001-061144-
/O.CAN.PHFO.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140106T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAWAII HI-
134 AM HST MON JAN 6 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII IN
HAWAII COUNTY...

WEATHER RADAR SHOWED THAT THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE ENDED. THEREFORE... 
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED.

THE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING HAVE SUBSIDED...BUT RUNOFF IS STILL
OCCURRING AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

LAT...LON 2021 15567 1996 15503 1987 15520 2007 15571

$$

HOUSTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN JAN 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LINGER JUST
EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND INTO MID-WEEK...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS
DIGGING TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THE UNUSUALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH HAS CAUSED THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME UNSTABLE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES
ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...WHERE PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.3 INCHES. THE HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND IS ARE RELATED TO AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO.

THE ISLANDS REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED ABOUT
500 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIHUE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DESCRIBED
ABOVE. AS A RESULT...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO
BE PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS BEEN OVER THE KAU DISTRICT OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A
FLOOD ADVISORY WAS RECENTLY ISSUED. THIS PARTICULAR AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING RATHER RAPIDLY...SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WIDE SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE
SUPPLY. NOTE THAT SMALL HAIL WAS REPORTED OVER PARTS OF THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF OAHU. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTENING AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STALL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM
WITHIN THIS AREA OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS A RESULT OF THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS OF THE ALOHA STATE THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE
INTO MID-WEEK.

THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK TROUGH...WHICH MAY BE THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DRAG THE
REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE SHOWER MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

LATER IN THE WEEK ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG DOWN
TO A POSITION WEST NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THIS FEATURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...WE
MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR MORE
DETAILS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS. HOWEVER...THE SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

THE CURRENT LARGE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST NORTH
FACING SHORES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...THIS NORTH SWELL
MAY PRODUCE MODERATE HARBOR SURGES WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES
POSSIBLE IN THE ENTRANCES AT THE KAHULUI AND HILO HARBORS.
THEREFORE...A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR PROBLEMS AT THESE NORTH FACING HARBORS.

THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS LATER THIS WEEK.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY BOOST SURF HEIGHTS NEAR OR ABOVE THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORELINES OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-FQNT TS ARE MOVING SE 10-15KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA THROUGH THE
PD. MVFR/IFR VIS AND CB TOPS FL300-400 AND FQNT LTG THE STRONGEST
CELLS. AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION MAINLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. THE 06
TAFS ARE MOSTLY VFR HOWEVER STRAY STORMS MAY PRODUCE SHORT LIVED
MVFR/IFR OBS AT SOME TERMINALS.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA IS PRODUCING MOD CHOP ALOFT DUE TO THE
STRONG LIFT ITS PRODUCING. SO TURB AWAY FROM ANY STORMS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. SIGMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR TS OVER THE LOCAL FA AND
MAY SPREAD EWD AS WELL. AIRMET ZULU FOR ICING IS ALSO POSTED AND
OVERLAPS THE SIGMET. FQNT UPDATES TO THE TAFS/AIRMETS/FA ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY...THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR ALL REMAINING
HAWAIIAN WATERS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...DEJESUS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
649 PM HST SUN JAN 5 2014

HIZ001>028-060700-
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAKAI-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KONA-
SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-
BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
649 PM HST SUN JAN 5 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE STATE TONIGHT. STORMS ARE
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

DEJESUS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
846 PM HST SUN JAN 5 2014

HIZ001>028-060900-
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAKAI-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KONA-
SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-
BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
846 PM HST SUN JAN 5 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE STATE TONIGHT. STORMS ARE
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

DEJESUS