Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Honolulu, HI

690 
WGHW70 PHFO 022211
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1211 PM HST MON JUN 2 2014

HIC007-022221-
/O.CAN.PHFO.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140602T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KAUAI HI-
1211 PM HST MON JUN 2 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE ISLAND OF KAUAI IN
KAUAI COUNTY...

WEATHER RADAR AND RAIN GAGES SHOWED THAT THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE ENDED 
ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS OF KAUAI. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS 
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 2227 15951 2226 15927 2195 15924 2184 15946

$$

JACOBSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1005 AM HST MON JUN 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL DISRUPT THE TRADE
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. THERE
WILL BE A MIX OF MAINLY MORNING AND NIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD AREAS...AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TUESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS
FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRAINING ACROSS KAUAI THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW GAUGES REPORTING RAINFALL RATES NEAR OR IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. LIGHTER RAINS ARE AFFECTING THE KAU
DISTRICT OF THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU APPEAR TO
BE SHADOWED IN THE PREVAILING EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS WERE QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR EARLY JUNE...WITH THE
LIHUE PWAT OF 1.53 INCHES OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL. A VERY HIGH INVERSION AROUND 15K FEET WAS PRESENT AT
HILO...WHILE LIHUE SHOWED NO INVERSION PRESENT. MIMIC-TPW
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA INDICATE A SWATH OF HIGHER
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE BIG ISLAND TO KAUAI...FEEDING
NORTHWARD INTO A SURFACE TROUGH STALLED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHWEST
OF KAUAI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS
TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF OUR USUAL INVERSION.

IN THE NEAR TERM...IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FEEDING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KAUAI INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY...WOULD EXPECT A
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR AND
LEEWARD SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD SEE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS...
ALTHOUGH THE VERY HIGH INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALL THE WAY UP TO THE SUMMITS. WARM MID LEVELS
(500 MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -7C ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS) SHOULD PREVENT
ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME ISOLATED
FLOODING.

INTERIOR/LEEWARD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS
ONCE AGAIN FAVORING WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL
BE A TRANSITION DAY...WITH TRADES STARTING TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE
STATE AS THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS. MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
EAST AS WELL. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF AFTERNOON INTERIOR/LEEWARD
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS. WILL EVALUATE THIS
FURTHER WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

BREEZY TRADES SHOULD BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE STATE DURING THIS
PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
RIDGING TO REESTABLISH THE NORMAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT A
TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORNING SHOWERS ARE BRINGING TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VIS TO PHTO AND PHLI.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL ISLAND TERMINALS. LIGHT
ESE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZES AND CLOUD
BUILDUPS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. ISOL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE
STATE AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU TODAY...WITH A MODERATE TO FRESH ESE
FLOW PERSISTING OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS E OF MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND. WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR LIGHTEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...AND WILL THEN INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY FOR THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SEASONABLY-SIZED SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG S FACING SHORES...
PRODUCED BY DISTANT LOWS IN THE S PACIFIC...WITH SHORT-PERIOD WIND
WAVES ALONG E FACING SHORES DRIVEN BY A TYPICAL FETCH OF TRADE WINDS
E OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...EATON