Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1233 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL PASS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1230PM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP QUITE A BIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OF THE INTERIOR IS AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES... WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S. THIS IS PRODUCING HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR 100 DEGREES
WHICH IS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK... BUT DO NOT EXPECT
IT TO LAST LONG ENOUGH OR BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING SOON WILL LIKELY COOL THINGS DOWN IN SOME
PLACES. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. CUMULUS FINALLY STARTING TO FORM ACROSS OUR AREA.
EARLIER CUMULUS FIELD WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE CATSKILLS IN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK HAS ALREADY EXPLODED INTO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS (SOME SEVERE) TRACKING GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD OUR AREA. EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA AS WELL AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL
PRODUCE AN 18Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATION TO AID IN ASSESSING
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH SOME SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS
IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED V PROFILE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WILL MAKE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING A THREAT AS WELL.

9AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. WENT
MORE IN LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE (MAV/MET/ECS) WHICH SHOW MOST
OF THE AREA REACHING 90 DEGREES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THIS
MORNING'S 12Z GYX SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS WARMER LOW LEVELS WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK HEATING UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. WITH DEW
POINTS NEAR 70 AND TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOW 90S... HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL START TO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE... YORK/OXFORD COUNTIES... AS WELL AS
INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE A BIT COOLER DUE
TO A SOUTHERLY WIND. WILL MENTION THE HEAT INDEX IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT DO NOT FEEL THE THREAT IS WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO FORM
AFTER NOON.

8AM UPDATE...
HAVE REDRAWN HOURLY POP FORECAST TO TRY TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING
OF CONVECTION TODAY. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION POPPING UP A LITTLE
AFTER NOON... POSSIBLY AIDED BY THE TERRAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGREE WITH STORM
PREDICTION CENTER ASSESSMENT ON POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL... AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS
HEAVY RAIN. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

615 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET AS WELL
AS RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z IT WAS QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAKENING AREA
OF BROKEN CONVECTION WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ON LATEST RADAR
MOSAIC. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND PROGGED TO
REACH THE LOWER 70S DURING THE DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WARMING
WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD PRODUCE CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSING IMPULSE WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TODAY WITH A FEW PRODUCING STRONG SURFACE
WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND HAZE. IT'LL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
ONLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

ON THURSDAY...CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON AS
WEAK LOW TRAVELS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH 70S ALONG THE MAINE MIDCOAST IN
ONSHORE TRAJECTORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PWATS IN PLACE WITH A
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO A FEW
COMMUNITIES IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THEREAFTER...THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...WHILE
"ARTHUR" TRAVELS NORTHEAST ALONG IT AND GRADUALLY BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL PER OFFICIAL NHC GUIDANCE AND LATEST CYCLONE PHASE
DIAGRAMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR JUST NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
STORM WILL HAVE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
SOMETIME SATURDAY. THIS IS WHEN THERE WILL BE INCREASING SUNSHINE
AND A LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE RECREATING ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK
DURING THIS PERIOD.

MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MILD TEMPERATURES RIGHT TO
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR IN FOG...SHOWERS...AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MARINE CLOUDS/FOG NEAR THE COAST. THIS SHOULD BREAK UP DURING
THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST
ON FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AND
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF ARTHUR ON SATURDAY AS 5-10 FOOT SWELLS REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY DUE TO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
910 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

ANZ150>154-031315-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
910 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ012>014-018>023-NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014-031315-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN CARROLL-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
910 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS COULD BE DANGEROUS FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS AND THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ007>009-NHZ001>003-005-007-031315-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-NORTHERN COOS-
SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SULLIVAN-
910 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ024>028-031315-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
910 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY.

SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MAY AFFECT THE AREA BEACHES THIS
WEEKEND WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1244 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

MEZ012>014-018>024-NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014-022000-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...
FARMINGTON...WILTON...MADISON...SKOWHEGAN...PITTSFIELD...
SANFORD...BERWICK...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...
LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS...AUGUSTA...WATERVILLE...
WINTERPORT...UNITY...BIDDEFORD...SACO...OLD ORCHARD BEACH...
KITTERY...PORTLAND...SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK...NORTH CONWAY...
WOLFEBORO...OSSIPEE...CONCORD...HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH...
ROCHESTER...DOVER...SALEM...DERRY...EXETER...PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON
1244 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES... IN THE 90S... WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY TO MAKE IT FEEL MUCH HOTTER. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A
SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR- CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE
SUN...AND CHECK IN ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

KIMBLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
212 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

NHZ007-021845-
SULLIVAN-
212 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SULLIVAN COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTH OF CLAREMONT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN
AND AROUND WEST UNITY...CLAREMONT...UNITY...SUNAPEE...NEWPORT...
GRANTHAM AND CROYDON THROUGH 245 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4339 7241 4343 7240 4355 7218 4338 7205
      4333 7208 4322 7238 4327 7242 4330 7241
      4334 7242 4335 7240 4338 7243

MLE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

NHZ002-003-021930-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN COOS-
249 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COOS COUNTY AND GRAFTON COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 250 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF SUGAR HILL...OR
ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LITTLETON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND SUGAR
HILL...LISBON...LANDAFF CENTER...LANDAFF...FRANCONIA...BETHLEHEM...
LITTLETON...FOREST LAKE STATE PARK...DALTON AND WHITEFIELD THROUGH
330 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4426 7202 4436 7190 4434 7186 4436 7182
      4441 7179 4442 7170 4447 7165 4449 7161
      4452 7160 4453 7158 4441 7141 4414 7184

MLE