Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY...SOME PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY BRINGING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES...HAS AIDED IN 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING /WITH 2 INCH PWATS/. AN ISOLD TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH WEAKENING WARM FRONT STILL VERY
SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE SVR THREAT WILL WANE
LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ATTENDANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY ENDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH BUT SHOULD FINALLY
CLEAR THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY KIND OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY BUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FIRE OFF THE MOUNTAINS. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLEARS
THE REGION THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TAF SITES WILL REMAIN QUITE VARIED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT ALL
LOCATIONS TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AS FOG SETS UP.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS. SCA FOR SEAS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WED AS MAINLY SEAS TOUCH SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE 1-3 INCHES
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN AREAS OF TRAINING STORMS COULD BE AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-
     014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...POHL
AVIATION...POHL
MARINE...EKSTER/POHL
HYDROLOGY...EKSTER

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