Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
702 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...STALLING NEAR THE COAST ON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AS HURRICANE ARTHUR RACES TO
THE NORTHEAST...PASSING WELL OFF CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE
ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE
MARITIMES LATE SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE'S MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE
HIGH SURF AND RIP TIDES WILL POSE A SERIOUS RISK ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND STALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU 4 AM. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
MOVING TOWARD THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS PRCP COULD LEAD TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ONCE THIS MOVES THRU
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE NGT WHICH
COULD ADD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ALSO...REMOVED SVR TSTM WORDING FROM MID COAST WHERE THERE IS NO
SVR TSTM WATCH. STILL MENTIONING TSTMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL,
GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

PREVIOUSLY UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA. ADJUSTED CHC OF
PRCP AND SKY COVER PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS. OVERALL
FCST REMAINS THE SAME.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SVR TSTM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THRU 10 PM (EXCEPT FOR THE MID COAST)
AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM. WARM...VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FNT. THE
COLD FNT WILL REACH THE COAST BY DAYBREAK. COOLING AND STABILIZING
WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WILL AFFECT THE MID COAST SUPPRESSING STRONG
CONVECTION TO A DEGREE. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH FAIRLY
SLOW MOVING STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING. SVR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
LARGE HAIL.

THE CONVECTION WEAKENS LATE THIS EVE WITH HIGH MOISTURE DUE TO
RAINFALL LEADING TO LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND F FORMING. STILL A FEW
SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM WILL LINGER THRU THE NGT AS WELL.

VERY WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FNT STALLS ALONG THE COAST THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVES NE...MOVING WELL OFF CAPE COD FRIDAY NGT.
THE FNT AND DISTANT STORM WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE SHRA AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS THRU FRIDAY WITH SHRA FRIDAY NGT. GRADUALLY LESS
HUMID AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FNT THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NGT...DEW POINTS DROP QUITE A
BIT AS WELL...INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S N AND LOW/MID 50S S.

BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE PASSING HURRICANE...WHICH WILL TRANSITION
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES BY WILL BE OCEAN SWELLS
WHICH WILL AFFECT SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL
MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH ARTHUR BRINGING A WET START
TO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH
MAINE... WHILE WESTERN AREAS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB MAY RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE SHOWER THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PART OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WITH TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILD AS THE UPPER LOW CORE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY WE SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE
PATTERN ALOFT, WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY.

BY MONDAY WE SEE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN SHIFTING AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DIVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY WITH OUR CWA ON THE WARM MOIST SIDE OF THE FRONT. WITH
35-40KTS OF SW WIND AT 850, AND UPWARDS OF 60KTS AT 500MB THE WIND
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE
FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST OF BASIC THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT GETS CLOSER.

THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT ... THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.  THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS THRU THIS
EVE WITH SHRA/TSTMS MOVING IN WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTMS. LOW
CLOUDS AND F DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR VERY LIKELY MOST
AREAS. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT...BUT STILL
SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSTMS AROUND.

LONG TERM... MVFR SATURDAY MORNING THEN CLEARING TO VFR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO CHANGE
WORDING OF TSTMS...REMOVED SVR WX WORDING AND REPLACED WITH SMALL
HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU FRIDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS COME UP
FRIDAY NGT REACHING SCA LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HURRICANE ARTHUR
MOVES TO THE NE INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT AND BRINGING IN
HIGHER SEAS/SWELLS. AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED EVEN THOUGH IT'S LATE
3RD PERIOD DUE TO TROPICAL SYSTEM AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THRU THIS
EVE...CHC OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS WITH STRONG WINDS, ABRUPT WIND
SHIFTS, HAIL, NEAR ZERO VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LONG TERM... HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY... AS
ARTHUR PASSES OFF SHORE. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE DOWNEAST... BUT
WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE
WHOLE COAST AS RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO A THREAT. WAVES AND WINDS
WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CALM WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ023>028.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
656 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

ANZ150>154-042300-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
656 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
STRONG WINDS...ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL IMPACT THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>021-NHZ001>010-013-042300-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-NORTHERN COOS-
SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-
SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-
INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
656 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ022-042300-
INTERIOR WALDO-
656 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ025>028-042300-
SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
656 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE MODERATE OR HIGH ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ023-024-NHZ014-042300-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
656 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE MODERATE OR HIGH ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
833 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAREMONT               43.38N  72.35W
07/03/2014                   SULLIVAN           NH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CLAREMONT POLICE REPORT NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES
            DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1400065

POHL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
839 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOODSVILLE              44.15N  72.04W
07/03/2014                   GRAFTON            NH   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN ON WIRES

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1400066

MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
843 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALEXANDRIA              43.61N  71.79W
07/03/2014                   GRAFTON            NH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MANY TREES DOWN ON CARDIGAN MOUNTAIN

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1400067

MC

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