River Flood Warning 41, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
701 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE EAST COAST SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
MADE FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN ADJUSTING HOURLY THERMAL PROFILES.
MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE WITH THE
MOST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER ANDROSCOGGIN AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES. THESE FEATURES ARE HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH DUAL POL 1 HR ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 0.75" AND
DUAL POL INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 4-5 IN/HR. WRF
ARW/NMM SHOW THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TRANSLATING EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND INTENSIFYING AS IT DOES SO. SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP A
FEW COUNTIES FROM THE FF WATCH SHORTLY.

&&

525 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. ADJUSTED POP TIMING A LITTLE
BIT. DID NOT TAKE DOWN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERNMOST
NH EVEN THOUGH PRECIP HAS ENDED AS A REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ALREADY HAVE A FEW
REPORTS OF 2.5-3.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NH. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...INCLUDING VIA OUR FACEBOOK AND/OR TWITTER
PAGES.

PREVIOUSLY...

NARROW BUT LONG THETA-E RICH PLUME OF AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
INTO THE CWA FROM SE TO NW. THIS AIR MASS HAS ORIGINS IN THE
TROPICS AND IT/S SHOWING IT WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN IN PARTS OF GRAFTON COUNTY WITH AN INCH OR TWO MORE LIKELY.
THIS PLUME OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE THINK MOST FOLKS WILL SEE
2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MAINE FOOTHILLS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL
RATES...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY GETTING UPWARDS OF 4
INCHES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN COOS COUNTY WHERE SHADOWING IS EXPECTED TO
TEMPER AMOUNTS. AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IT COULD OCCUR
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AS WELL WHERE BANDS OF RAIN SET UP. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CLEAR MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH OUR MIDCOAST MAINE ZONES AROUND DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...SHOULD BE A NICE WARM DAY MOST
LOCATIONS.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT ANY PRECIP
TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST ZONES. HIGH TEMPS
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. WILL SEE A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES. STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

SUNDAY LOOKING COOL AND BLUSTERY AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID
30S SOUTH.

VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER CHILLY
DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THICKENING CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL LIKELY INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE
LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS NORTH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL AGAIN SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SEEING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING VFR FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
AND SEAS/SWELLS OVER 5 FT.

LONG TERM...SCA'S LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES
EXCEPT NORTHERN COOS COUNTY. A GENERAL 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FAVORED LOCATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ002>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

UPDATE...HANES

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
751 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WENTWORTH               43.87N  71.91W
10/16/2014                   GRAFTON            NH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GRAFTON CO SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED A PARK UNDERWATER
            IN WENTWORTH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1400252

SH