River Flood Warning 40, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND...
BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10PM UPDATE: RADAR AND OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BANDS OF VERY HVY
RAINS WITH EMBDD TSTMS HAVE ENDED OVER NH BUT ARE NOW MOVING
THROUGH SW AND CNTRL ME. THE SECONDARY SFC LOW CENTERED JUST E OF
PSM ATTM CONTINUES DEEPENING AND MOVING ENEWD WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW IN ADVANCE ENHANCING THE RAINFALL AMTS. 2-4 INCHES
OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN COMMON WITH THIS SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE DEEP NEG TILTED TROF LIFTING NEWD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST RAIN AND EMBDD TSTMS OVER SRN AND CENTRAL MAINE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE BAND OF RAIN SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA ALLOWING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

PREV DISC:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO
THE NORTHEAST WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND.
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL OVER NH AND MA WHERE THE BEST LIFT
CURRENTLY IS. ONLY A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED
TODAY OVER NH AND MAINE SO FAR...BUT MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
SHOULD INTENSIFY AS BETTER DYNAMICS PIVOT INTO THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER BETWEEN 21-03Z WITH HEAVY RAIN WORDING.
STILL EXPECTING 1-3" OVERALL AS THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTERACTS WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. PWATS
ARE AROUND 1.5-2.00" AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN UP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS AS IS AND LASTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS EVENT WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM SW TO NE
LATE TONIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT PASS BY ALONG
THE COAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT
AFTER A COOL DAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL LINGER ON THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL
MAINE AS THE FORCING EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THANKS TO PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SOME CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE OCCLUSION WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS STALLED TO OUR NW OVER QUEBEC THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST DRAWING IN DRIER AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND MT WASHINGTON IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG IMPULSE WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CROSSING THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM.

BY TUESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE REGION AS RIDGING
OCCURS FOR ONLY A 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD. THEREAFTER...YET ANOTHER
COASTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A
PERIOD OF RAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR +RA...FOG...AND POSSIBLY DZ AT KRKD. WEST
WINDS WILL ARRIVE AROUND 13Z IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THRU
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CLEAR OUT
COMPLETELY...WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHRA...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
6PM UPDATE: HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE EVENING AS EAST WINDS
HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT WINDS ASSOCIATED EAST OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER RI AS
IT TRACKS ENEWD THIS EVENING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

PREV DISC:
GENERIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AS THE OCCLUDED LOW CROSSES THE
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE NEEDED TO REPLACE
IT AS WAVES STAY ABOVE 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER PENOBSCOT AND THE
OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS EXITED NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE. THE HEAVY BAND OF RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF MAINE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE CAUSING
SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

MOST OF THE MAJOR RIVERS ARE RISING BUT ARE GENERALLY BEHAVING. THE
SACO AT NORTH CONWAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 3AM FOR SOUTHWEST
COASTAL MAINE. HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.2 FT IN PORTLAND AT 209 AM.
STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO .5 TO 1 FT AND CURRENTLY SEAS ARE
RUNNING AROUND 10 FT. THIS COMBINATION WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR
FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN SOME AREAS.
SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
954 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-025>028-NHZ001>010-013-150200-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-SAGADAHOC-
LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
954 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE LAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS EXITED NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MAINE. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ023-024-NHZ014-150200-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
954 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ150>154-150200-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
954 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLOOD            SACO                    43.50N  70.44W
08/13/2014                   YORK               ME   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            UNDERPASSES FLOODED... VEHICLES STRANDED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1400225

MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1020 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PORTLAND                43.66N  70.26W
08/13/2014                   CUMBERLAND         ME   UNKNOWN

            HIGH STREET FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1400226

MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1032 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BRADFORD                43.27N  71.96W
08/13/2014                   MERRIMACK          NH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EAST WASHINGTON RD FLOODED

0527 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SUTTON                  43.33N  71.95W
08/13/2014                   MERRIMACK          NH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            RT 114 CLOSED

0930 PM     FLOOD            SACO                    43.50N  70.44W
08/13/2014                   YORK               ME   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            UNDERPASSES FLOODED... VEHICLES STRANDED.

1017 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PORTLAND                43.66N  70.26W
08/13/2014                   CUMBERLAND         ME   UNKNOWN

            HIGH STREET FLOODED.

1020 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SCARBOROUGH             43.58N  70.32W
08/13/2014                   CUMBERLAND         ME   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            8 RUNNING WATER OVER BROADTURN RD.

1030 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PORTLAND                43.66N  70.26W
08/13/2014                   CUMBERLAND         ME   UNKNOWN

            BRIGHTON AVE CLOSED

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1400223 GYX1400224 GYX1400225 GYX1400226 GYX1400227
GYX1400228

MC