Gale Warning 7, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
215 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY. A SOMEWHAT MILDER FLOW OF AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. A SERIES OF ARCTIC COLD
FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY DELIVERING PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER AIR TO OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WELL TO THE W BEGINS HEADING THIS WAY AS THE DEEP LOW
MOVES E NE THRU THE MARITIMES TNGT. WILL PUT UP WIND CHILL
WARNING FOR WRN MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF MAINE AND A WIND CHILL ADV
FOR CAPITAL TO MID COAST REGION FOR THIS EVE THRU MID MORNING
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVE BUT SHOULD STAY STRONG
ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH VERY COLD TEMPS TO CREATE WIND CHILLS IN
THE MINUS 20S ACROSS THE ADV AREA AND MINUS 30S TO AROUND MINUS 40
OVER THE WARNING AREA. TO THE W AND SW WINDS WILL DROP OFF ENOUGH
TO NOT HAVE ENOUGH OF A CHILLING EFFECT. STILL VERY COLD TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH WIND DROPPING OFF TO AID IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE MAV MOS WAS A BIT COLDER THAN THE MAV/MET
COMBINATION SO USED THE COLDER SOLUTION. OTRW DRY WX OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND BUT HAVING NO IMPACT ON THE
WX. MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE NAM...SHOW LOW LVL MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE N/MT AREAS OVERNIGHT. WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
NOT TO THE EXTREME THE NAM IS SHOWING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD E THRU THURSDAY NGT WITH MORE VERY
COLD DRY WX. WIND CHILL ADV/WARNING END DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS
TEMPS CLIMB ENOUGH TO BRING WIND CHILLS ABOVE CRITERIA. STILL SOME
NW WIND AROUND...BUT NOT VERY GUSTY THRU THE DAY AS THE NW SFC
GRADIENT HAS WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH FLOW BACKING TO THE SW SUCH THAT
THE WINDS WON'T LINE UP SFC AND ALOFT TO AID IN MIXING DOWN ANY
WIND GUSTS. WINDS DROP OFF THURSDAY NGT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER.
THIS WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ANOTHER VERY COLD NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE WE SEE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...THE
NUMERICALS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION SPELLS WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WARM UP
ON SATURDAY IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC
COLD FRONT...BUT EVEN THEN WE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH
AND AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SQUALLS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...VFR. SOME MVFR CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AT HIE AND MAYBE LEB...BUT AT THIS TIME DOWNPLAYING ANY
CIG FROM THESE LOW CLOUDS.

LONG TERM...

SAT - SAT NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
                  SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

SUN NIGHT - MON...AREAS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
                  SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WILL CONT THE GLW
THRU 6 PM BAYS AND EXTEND INTO THE EVE FOR THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO
GUSTY NW WINDS. THE GLW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FOLLOWED UP WITH AN
SCA FOR BOTH BAYS AND OUTER WATERS. WILL HAVE A FREEZING SPRAY
ADV FOR ALL ZONES THRU MID MORNING THURSDAY DUE TO WIND...COLD
TEMPS AND COLD OCEAN WATER. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY THIS EVE... ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WATERS. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL FALL IN THE ADV CATEGORY SO WILL GO WITH THAT
HEADLINE BUT WILL MENTION SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FCST
FOR THIS EVE. WINDS AND SEAS LET UP THRU THE NGT AND CONT TO LET
UP THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NGT AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM THE W. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WELL AS FREEZING SPRAY.

LONG TERM...

SAT - MON...GALE FORCE WINDS AND FREEZING SPRAY ARE LIKELY AS A
            SERIES OF ARCTIC COLD FRONTS CROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ020>022-025>028.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

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