Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Guam

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
414 PM CHST SUN OCT 5 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM IS TYPHOON VONGFONG...CENTERED ABOUT 280
MILES EAST OF GUAM. VONGFONG HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED...ABOUT 18 MPH. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED RAIN
BANDS AND CLOUDINESS HAVE ALREADY ENVELOPED THE FORECAST ZONES.
MONSOON TROUGH HEADS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM VONGFONG THROUGH A WEAK
CIRCULATION CENTERED BETWEEN KOSRAE AND KWAJALEIN TO END AT
EQ165E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WARNING FROM THE JTWC SPEEDS UP VONGFONG ABOUT 6 HOURS OR
SO...BRINGING THE EYE JUST NORTH OF ROTA AROUND 4 AM LOCAL TIME.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE CLOSELY FOLLOWS
PERSISTENCE AND KEEPS THE INTENSITY OF VONGFONG AROUND 100 KT AS
IT TRANSITS MARIANAS WATERS. FORECAST MAINTAINS A WET BIAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS KEEP MONSOONAL
CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST ZONES AFTER VONGFONG PASSES. SYSTEM
NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO
TROUGH OUT...THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ECMWF
AND GFS ALSO BOTH AGREE ON FINALLY BRINGING IN A DRIER TRADE-WIND
PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS STILL RAPIDLY BUILD...BUT ON A FASTER TIME
TABLE...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM TO TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MARINE ZONES LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WORST CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN
STORE FOR ROTA...WITH CPA EXPECTED THERE AROUND 4 AM CHST.
FORECAST REFLECTS LARGER WIND RADII ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
VONGFONG.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
VONGFONG CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...BUT AT A SLOWER RATE. LATEST
SATELLITE FIXES RANGE BETWEEN DVORAK 4.5 AND 5.5...WHICH EQUATES
TO BETWEEN 75 AND 105 KT. VONGFONG STILL DISPLAYS A CLOUD FILLED
EYE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. WESTERN EYEWALL LIES JUST BEYOND THE
RANGE OF THE PGUA WSR-88D...BUT IT SHOULD BECOME VISIBLE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WEATHER REMAINS VERY UNSETTLED ACROSS THIS AREA. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED JUST NE OF KOSRAE NEAR 6N165E...AND
SATELLITE SHOWS A TRADE-WIND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS MAINLY ALONG 10N. SO...SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CHANGEABLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. SOMEWHAT DRIER
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK...TYPHOON VONGFONG HAS MOVED TOWARD THE MARIANAS AND
WEATHER HAS SETTLED DOWN A BIT. MOST MODELS INDICATE A LIGHT WIND
REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS CHUUK STATE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE MOIST AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CHUUK STATE UNTIL SLIGHTLY DRIER EAST WINDS ARRIVE LATER
IN THE WEEK.

PALAU AND YAP...WET MONSOON WEATHER WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK.
TYPHOON VONGFONG WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS
EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THAT WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE MONSOON PATTERN OVER YAP AND PALAU THROUGH THIS
WEEK.

HAZARDOUS SURF ON YAP AND KOROR PALAU ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES
WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NORTH SWELL IS FROM DISTANT
TYPHOON PHANFONE. ALSO...MONSOON CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND THE
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD AGAIN ACROSS YAP AND PALAU SO THAT
SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUZ001>005.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TYPHOON WARNING FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

MCELROY/SIMPSON/KLEESCHULTE