Wind Advisory 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

943 
WWUS72 KGSP 201506
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1006 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-202315-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.140220T2300Z-140221T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...WAYNESVILLE
1006 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EST FRIDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
  MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY EXPOSED PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS.

* HAZARDS...VERY GUSTY WINDS.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE 
  OVERNIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ON EXPOSED
  PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS. MEANWHILE...WINDS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE
  LESS THAN 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL CAUSE A FEW 
  TREES TO FALL AND MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS DIFFICULT IN THE 
  HIGH ELEVATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OVER 46 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

894 
WWUS72 KGSP 210349
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1049 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-211100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-140221T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...WAYNESVILLE
1049 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA 
  MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY EXPOSED PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS.

* HAZARDS...VERY GUSTY WINDS.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE 
  OVERNIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ON EXPOSED 
  PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS. MEANWHILE...WINDS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE 
  LESS THAN 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL CAUSE A FEW 
  TREES TO FALL AND MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS DIFFICULT IN THE 
  HIGH ELEVATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OVER 46 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING OUR REGION
FRIDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
PATCHY WEAK RETURNS HAVE LIT UP ON THE KGSP RADAR DURING THE PAST
HOUR...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. CLOUDS BASES ARE ABOVE 6000
FEET...AND BASED UPON THE WEAKNESS OF THE REFLECTIVITY...WE DOUBT
THIS IS RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES AT THE GROUND.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH UPGLIDE AND SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WE WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISING
INCREASING POPS...EMPHASIZING THE BLUE RIDGE AS HAVING THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES. THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY VEERING
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHILE THE BETTER UPGLIDE IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE. CHANCE
POPS WILL THEREFORE SHIFT TO FOCUS MORE IN THE SOUTHWEST NC AND
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS HOLD ON TO
COOL SECTOR AIR ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON...SO MAXES WILL BE HELD IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC MTNS AND THE FOOTHILLS.

LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONTAL ZONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH H8 WINDS AS HIGH AS 60 KT BY
LATE EVENING. AS USUAL DURING WARM ADVECTION REGIMES...VALLEY WINDS
WILL BE VERY TAME...BUT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3500 FEET. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SWINGING COLD FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z.
NEVERTHELESS...FRONTAL BANDS WITH A HEAVY CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TYPICALLY SEEM TO ARRIVE FASTER THAN SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE...SO POPS
WILL INCREASE TO THE HIGH END OF LIKELY BY 06Z ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MTNS. THE FRONTAL BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS IT
CROSSES THE GREAT TENN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...SUCH THAT SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN FACT...WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE DOES NOT OVERLAP WITH THE BEST SHEAR PROFILES. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO MIX DOWN
THE HIGH MOMENTUM LLJ AIR TO THE SURFACE AS THE BAND CROSSES THE NC
MTNS. THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MAY EXIST LATE FRI MORNING
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...AS THE WARM SECTOR BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE.
HOWEVER...IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE TO OUR WEST TONIGHT...AND TO OUR EAST
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EST THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES AT
18Z FRIDAY WITH WEAK CAA REGIME RAMPING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST
ZONES BEHIND THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. POPS WILL REMAIN AT LOW
END CHANCES LEVELS ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR AT INITIALIZATION BEFORE
FALLING OFF RAPIDLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS REMOVED
BY 22Z. SKIES WILL RUSH TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE WEST AS THE MOISTURE
AXIS ALONG THE FRONT ENTERS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. QUASIZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WILL
LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY. THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE
SATURDAY EVENING LEADING TO THE RETURN OF WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AMIDST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH BY MID/LATE MORNING SUNDAY AS MOISTURE ADJACENT TO A
WEAK NORTHERN GULF DISTURBANCE ADVECTS NORTHWARD. NO MENTIONABLE
POPS IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE AS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
I20 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 220 AM EST THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR THE MID
SECTION OF OUR NATION STARTS THE WEATHER MAP ON SUNDAY. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH MID WEEK AND
DEEPEN...ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY OVER
THE WEST COAST.

WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE
WEEK AS A FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TO EAST OF THE
GEORGIA COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ON THE GFS SHOWS SEVERAL HOURS
TUESDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON OF LIGHT UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY WIND WHILE
ECMWF HAS EARLIER UPSLOPE FROM MONDAY EVENING TO NEAR SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REACHING THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW
MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR THE SC COAST AROUND 06Z WED. THE NEW ECMWF HAS A
STRING OF LITTLE LOWLETS ALONG THE FRONT FROM LA TO BERMUDA AT 06Z
WED. THE GFS MAINLY HAS THE ONE LOW ON THE SC COAST. THE GFS ALSO
HAS BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWERS NEAR THE NRN NC MTNS AROUND MID DAY WED.
THE ECMWF HAS LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING...BUT SEEMS OVERDONE. SEEMS BEST TO CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THEN CRY US OUT WED AFTERNOON AS NW DOWNSLOPE
WILL RAISE HIGHS FOR FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.  STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXERT MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE NW LATE WED AND WED NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND SLOWLY FALL TO REACH
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
DAYBREAK...BUT THE PLAN IS THAT DENSE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL COOLING TO CREATE FAVORABLE FOG
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...STRATOCU CIGS IN THE 040-050 RANGE ARE
EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK...LOWERING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING.
STRATOCU CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RISE/SCATTER OUT INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT E/NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STARTING TURNING TOWARD
THE SE AFTER SUNRISE...THEN INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS OUT OF THE S/SW
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS LIKELY.

ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS/STRENGTHENS ABOVE THE SURFACE. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...ESP NEAR KGMU/KGSP/KAVL. SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KAND AND PERHAPS KAVL...BUT HAVE LIMITED VISBY
RESTRICTION TO 5SM AT KAND...AS THE THOUGHT IS THAT DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT THE TYPE OF COOLING THAT WOULD BE NECESSARY
FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO...BUT THE
PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
OTHERWISE...CIGS ARE TO RISE AND/OR SCATTER OUT INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...
BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH  94%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  93%     HIGH  93%
KGMU       HIGH  93%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   77%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062>064.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-202100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
351 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ACCOMPANY THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALSO...THERE MAY BE SOME EXCESSIVE RUN OFF
FROM THE RAINFALL...AS THE GROUND IS STILL NEARLY SATURATED FROM
MELTING SNOW. SOME ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-202100-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
351 PM EST WED FEB 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ACCOMPANY THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

ARK