Wind Advisory 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

687 
WWUS72 KGSP 050832
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH DAYBREAK...

.GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WINDIEST
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES AND
SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN AREAS...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO BE
CHANNELED DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

NCZ051-052-058-059-051200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-140205T1200Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA
332 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...GRAHAM...SWAIN...HAYWOOD AND NORTHERN JACKSON 
  COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ALONG
  THE HIGHER PEAKS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY
  MORNING COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS
  AS WELL.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
  MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AT THE HIGHER
  ELEVATIONS...BUT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS DURING
  HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD BLOW DOWN TREE BRANCHES 
  AND COULD UPROOT WEAK AND SHALLOWLY ROOTED TREES. ISOLATED POWER
  OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR HIGH
  PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

653 
WWUS72 KGSP 051208
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
708 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014

NCZ051-052-058-059-051315-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-140205T1200Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA
708 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
50 MPH FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
713 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM MISSISSIPPI UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY RETURN ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EST...MOISTURE IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE SFC LOW CENTER JUST E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAMP UP
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BLOSSOM LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN...ESPECIALLY THE SRLY UPSLOPE AREAS. EAST OF THE MTNS...ENOUGH
MOIST UPGLIDE WILL LINGER TO WARRANT CONTINUED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. WITH FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG
ALL THE MODELS THAT A 50 TO 60 KT 850 MB JET WILL TRAVERSE THE SRN
MTNS CIRCA 09Z...AND WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE POSSIBLY MIXING
SOME OF THIS ENERGY DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE POSTED FOR THE SRN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING IS THAT
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ALOFT OVER THE SHALLOWING CAD LAYER...AND
THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE AROUND THE PERIPHERY...TO POSSIBLY
SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS IN SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WED MORNING.
STILL THINK THAT THE TIMING WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FOR SEVERE TSTMS...BUT A LARGER SLICE OF
ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE ADVERTISED MAINLY 10Z TO 13Z. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THE SW MTNS AS WELL...AS BETTER RATES
ARE NOW EXPECTED...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS. RAPID
DRYING IS ANTICIPATED WITH FROPA THROUGH THE LATER MORNING HOURS. NW
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL IMPROVE ALONG THE TN BORDER...WITH THICKNESSES
FALLING ENOUGH BY LATE DAY FOR A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER PEAKS TOWARD EVENING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS JUST
BEHIND FROPA IN THE BEST MIXING. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE...DECENT
AFTN HEATING...AND DELAYED COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 AM EST TUESDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE SW USA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT FROM TX TO THE
NC OUTER BANKS. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL AGREE ON THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH AND THE UPPER FLOW...THEY DISAGREE ON THE DETAIL OF CHANNELED
IMPULSES LEAVING THE TROUGH AXIS AND CROSSING THE SE.

ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART THE CAROLINA AND GA
COASTS...WHILE COLD MOIST NW FLOW SUPPORTS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN. BY THURSDAY MORNING
MOISTURE DIMINISHES TO THE POINT THAT NOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH...
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES LEAVING THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT RESULTS IN THE NAM BRINGING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD
SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS N GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE
DAWN. NEITHER THE ECMWF NOR THE GFS SUPPORTS SUCH A SCENARIO...AND
ONLY POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE SC PIEDMONT AT THAT TIME. MODEL
SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT A COLD RAIN EVENT IN THAT LOCATION.

AS POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
FRIDAY...CHANCES IMPROVE FOR MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO SET UP OVER
THE SURFACE RIDGE. WITH CONFIDENCE LIMITED ON TIMING...ONLY SMALL
POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO SPREAD WEST TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE
VERTICAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AT ONLY THE VERY
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL
FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VLY BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE SEEM TO HAVE LARGE
RAMIFICATIONS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL EAST COAST STORM. THE
12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED...RESULTING
IN A MORE ORGANIZED OH VLY/SRN GREAT LAKES LOW...AND A WEAKER
COASTAL LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE LATEST WPC PREFERENCE IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE ECWMF...AND THIS IS CLOSER TO CONTINUITY AS WELL.
SO I KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY...DESPITE THE GFS AND CMC
BEING BASICALLY DRY. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST BY
SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSS THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY...ENHANCING QPF RESPONSE ACRS THE CWFA. THE POPS
TAPER OFF TO LOW-END CHC BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THEN JUST A NW FLOW/TN
BORDER CHC POP SUNDAY AFTN. CAA IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENUF IN
AT LEAST ADVISORY SNOW LEVEL ACCUMS TO ADD A MENTION IN THE HWO.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...GENERAL EAST COAST TROFINESS WILL
LINGER...BUT GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST UNDER THE CONFLUENT NWLY UPPER FLOW...RESULTING IN DRY
WX AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...DEEPENING MOISTURE...STRENGTHENING UPGLIDE...AND
SHALLOWING CAD MAKE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS QUITE CERTAIN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...KEEPING
THE CHARACTER MAINLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE KCLT VICINITY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL THEN RAMP UP
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH. A PERIOD OF SOLID LIFR...WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF LLWS...AND A
LOW END THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DEVELOP BY 10Z AND LINGER THROUGH
MID MORNING FROPA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TSTM MENTION AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ENE WINDS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN SRLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK...AND SW AND GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT
RAPIDLY WITH FROPA AFTER 16Z.

ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST
WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRENGTHENING 850 MB SRLY JET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF LLWS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SHALLOWING WEDGE LAYER FROM KAVL TO KAND. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDER TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE SC TAF
SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE INSTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO FEATURE
TSTMS AT THE MOMENT. FOG MAY BECOME BRIEFLY DENSE IN THE HEART OF
THE WEAKENING CAD LAYER FROM KGSP TO KHKY JUST BEFORE THE BEST SRLY
MIXING STARTS...BUT WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 1SM IN FOG FOR NOW. THE
RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH THE FROPA MID WED
MORNING...BUT WITH WESTERLY GUSTS PICKING UP WITH MIXING AND THEN
LATER WITH COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE REGION. MORE UNSETTLED WX WILL RETURN FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE RESTRICTIONS DURING THIS PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z
KCLT       HIGH  81%     HIGH  88%     MED   78%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH  87%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  84%     HIGH  94%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  82%     HIGH  88%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   74%     HIGH  84%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

NCZ033-048>052-058-052030-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
319 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 40 TO 55 MPH TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500
FEET...WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ053-059-062-501-503-505-052030-
BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
319 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 40 TO 55 MPH TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500
FEET...WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-063>065-068>072-082-
502-504-506>510-SCZ001>014-019-052030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
319 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07