Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2014

Wind Advisory 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

January 21, 2014Henderson County, Jackson County, Transylvania County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Jan 21, 2014, 4:02 AM EST for Henderson County, Jackson County, Transylvania County, North Carolina. It took effect at Jan 21, 2014, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 21, 2014, 4:02 AM EST (09:02 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 21, 2014, 1:00 PM EST
Expired
Jan 21, 2014, 10:23 PM EST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Transylvania County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 00:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 263 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2014-01-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2014-01-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 15 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3124 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
135 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

938 
WWUS72 KGSP 210902
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
402 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY...

.AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.

NCZ063>065-211715-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.140121T1800Z-140122T1100Z/
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
402 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN JACKON...TRANSYLVANIA AND HENDERSON
  COUNTIES. 

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND BLOWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND
  BLOCKING A FEW ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MCAVOY
4 follow-up statements
511 
WWUS72 KGSP 210917 CCA
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
417 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY...

.AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.

NCZ063>065-211745-
/O.COR.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.140121T1800Z-140122T1100Z/
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
417 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN JACKSON...TRANSYLVANIA AND HENDERSON
  COUNTIES. 

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND BLOWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND
  BLOCKING A FEW ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MCAVOY
072 
WWUS72 KGSP 211642
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1142 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...

.AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT.

NCZ063>065-220000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.140121T1800Z-140122T1100Z/
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
1142 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN JACKSON...TRANSYLVANIA AND HENDERSON 
  COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND
  BLOCKING A FEW ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
LANE
883 
WWUS72 KGSP 211950
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...WINDY TONIGHT...

.AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

NCZ063>065-220400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140122T1100Z/
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
250 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN JACKSON...TRANSYLVANIA AND HENDERSON 
  COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE BLOWN DOWN...
  ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
  AND BLOCKING A FEW ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
109 
WWUS72 KGSP 220323
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1023 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

NCZ063>065-220430-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140122T1100Z/
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
1023 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
OVER RIDGETOPS AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES TO BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE
BITTERLY COLD RANGE. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.

$$

PM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Jan 21, 3:25 AM EST, 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 21, 3:25 AM EST, 37 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  THE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST.  EXPECT MUCH COLDER HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTROL OUR
WEATHER INTO THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EST TUESDAY...A STRONGLY ADVECTIVE H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARTIC COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION.

THERE ARE A VARIETY OF WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE MAY INITIALLY BE SOME MIX...BUT BY AFTN PREDOMINATELY SNOW IS
EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLLY CONFINED TO THE TN BOARDER UNTIL THE EARLY AFTN HOURS
WHEN THE STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE MTNS. NW FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS...LASING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE SFC LOW
OVER ERN NC SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RATHER RAPID SNOW
ACCMULATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE NRN MTNS AND ALONG
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS. IT/S A CLOSE
CALL...BUT I UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WARNING. I ALSO
ADDED A TIER OF WINTER WX ADVISORY COUNTIES INCLUDING THE NC BLUE
RIDGE...BUNCOMBE...JACKSON AND MACON. THESE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF SNOW AS THE SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH. I DON/T THINK 2
INCHES IS LIKELY EXCEPT IN RATHER ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...RESULTING IN QUITE A BIT OF BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS AFTN...BUT THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND
ADVISORIES WILL COVER THIS. I WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SRN
MTNS. HENDERSON COUNTY IS LIKELY TO SEE THE WORST OF THE WINDS. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THE HIGHER PEAKS BY
EARLY AFTN...AND WILL FALL QUICKLY TO VALLEY FLOORS BY LATE AFTN.
THE WIND CHILL PRODUCT WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
WHERE THEY OVERLAP...AND WILL BE IT/S OWN PRODUCT WHERE THEY DON/T.

OUTSIDE THE MONTAINS THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACK...SOME MOISTURE POOLING AND
STRONG DPVA SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW TSTMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. I/VE UPPED
POPS...ESPCIALLY ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE PCPN. THE BNDRY LAYER TEMPS WILL BE WARM
AND IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR SNOW LEVELS TO WORK DOWN.
HOWEVER...VIGOROUS CONVECTION WOULD MAKE SHORT ORDER OF ANY SFC WARM
NOSE AND WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIER SNOWFALL. RIGHT NOW I HAVE SOME
UNDER 1 INCHE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NORTH OF CHARLOTTE OUT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. I SIMPLY DON/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH ANY MORE
SNOW THAN THIS. HOWEVER...I HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED POPS WHICH I
THINK IS A TREND IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTIVE TRENDS CAREFULLY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTN. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A SNOW ADVISORY WILL
BE NEED FOR PARTS OF OUR NC PIEMDONT ZONES BETWEEN 21-03 UTC THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. WIND CHILL CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS STARTING THIS EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS OVER THE CWFA BEHIND
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. WITH BACKING WINDS...ANY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 12Z WED AND WITH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS REMAINING UNMODERATED...DEEP DRY AIR WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR.  MAX TEMPS HOWEVER WILL STILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA WILL STILL BE MET THRU THE MORNING
AS WINDS AND GUSTS CONTINUE TO BE BRISK...RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY.

THU MRNG DOES NOT LOOK AS COLD AS WED MRNG...AS THICKNESSES REBOUND A
BIT UNDER WEAK RIDGE...BUT STILL VERY COLD. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT...AND SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS
DOWN INTO THE INTERIOR CONUS BEHIND IT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST THU MRNG...BRINGING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THIS TIME.
ANOTHER MINOR NW FLOW SNOW EVENT IS THUS EXPECTED WITH IT. PROG
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW SATURATION...BUT WINDS ARE IDEALLY
ORIENTED. NO INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS UNDER
STRONG INVERSION AND TEMPS IN FACT MAY BE TOO COLD IN THE UPSLOPE
LAYER FOR IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH...MEANING FAIRLY LOW RATIOS IF ANY
SNOW FORMS AT ALL. NOTING ALL THIS...KEPT POPS IN SCHC RANGE THU AND
THU EVENING WITH MINIMAL QPF. ACCUMULATION SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DUSTING. DRY FCST AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE PIEDMONT AROUND AND
BEHIND THE FROPA. BRISK GUSTS WILL MIX DOWN THU AFTN BUT TEMPS ARE
NOT CRITICALLY LOW. VERY COLD TEMPS DO RETURN THU NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILLS AGAIN NEAR ADVY CRITERIA ON MODERATE NW WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM EST ON TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON DRY CONDITIONS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVING DOWN INTO THE SE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR
REGION LATE SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NC AND
TN BORDER AREAS FROM AROUND MID DAY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE LEAST QPF RESPONSE WHILE THE NEW
ECMWF HAS THE GREATEST QPF AMOUNTS AND EARLIER TIMING...MAX AROUND
18Z SAT.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES SOMETIME BETWEEN 06Z MONDAY AND
06Z TUES DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL REFERENCED. THE GFS HAS THE
GREATEST QPF AMOUNTS AND LATEST IN TIME WHILE THE ECMWF IS EARLIER
AND LESS AMOUNTS. THIS IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY AND SURE TO CHANGE FROM
MODEL RUNS. THE AXIS OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND THUS COLDEST
ASSOCIATED AIR WITH FALLING THICKNESS VALUES WILL FOLLOW THE CURRENT
DAY 7 OF OUR FORECAST TOWARD MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE CURRENT
MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...AROUND 8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SAT...AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN AND
MON. AS IT LOOKS NOW TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECTING QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE MORNING. TOWARD
NOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTN
HOURS. IT/S WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM MODEL BRINGS A FRONT DOWN
ACROSS THE AIRFIELD BY ABOUT 18 UTC. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE...IF
THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH...THAT THE SFC WINDS COULD TURN OUT OF
THE NORTH AT LIGHTER SPEEDS FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTN. HOWEVER...FOR
NOW I AM KEEPING THE AIRFIELD SOUTH OF THE FRONT. LATER IN THE
EVENING THE WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KTS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED...THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF RAIN AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS AT THE AIRFIELD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM ACTUALLY BRINGS A GOOD
BAND OF SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD AROUND 00 UTC. EVEN THE GFS
IS DOING THIS...THOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE MUCH LESS PCPN. THIS
IS DEFINITELY A CONCERN AS THE FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANYTHING IN THE TAF JUST YET. WE WILL LOOK AT THIS VERY
CLOSELY WITH THE 12 UTC ISSUANCE.

ELSEWHERE...OUTSIDE THE MTNS...SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT KHKY.
CONDITIONS ALSO SIMILAR AT THE UPSTATE SC TAF SITES BUT ALMOST NO
CHANCE OF SNOW. A DIFFERENT STORY AT KAVL. EXPECT NW FLOW BEHIND THE
WAVE TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME LOW CLOUDS UP THE VALLEY
DURING THE DAY. SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FR BROAD VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON...SO A PROB30 WAS
INCLUDED FOR AN MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AT KAVL. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
WILL BE REINFORCED LATE IN THE WEEK. THAT SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING. LOW RH OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THAT
TIME...FUELS WILL HAVE TIME TO DRY OUT FURTHER BY THEN. WINDS
HOWEVER WILL GENERALLY NOT BE OF CONCERN.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ051>053-058-059-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-
     507-509.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ035-502-504-506-508-510.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NCZ063>065.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...MCAVOY
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 20, 3:44 PM EST, 12 hours 18 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014

NCZ033-048>050-212045-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
344 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. AFTER PEAKING IN INTENSITY AROUND
MIDDAY TUESDAY...SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...BITTERLY COLD SUB ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AND WIND GUSTS REACH NEAR 45 TO 50
MPH LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
..WEDNESDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
..THURSDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ053-059-062>065-501-503-505-212045-
BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
344 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH MAY ALSO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAUSING A FEW
TREE LIMBS TO FALL AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ALONG WITH BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
..WEDNESDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
..THURSDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ056-068>072-082-504-506>510-SCZ001>014-
019-212045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
344 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
..THURSDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ035>037-057-502-212045-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-GREATER CALDWELL-
344 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTH
OF I-40. AS TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION
MAY TURN TO ALL SNOW BEFORE COMING TO AN END. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
..WEDNESDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
..THURSDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ051-052-058-212045-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
344 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT ABOVE 3500 FEET...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET WILL
EXPERIENCE SNOW INTENSITY PEAKING AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH
SNOW CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...BITTERLY COLD
SUB ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
AND WIND GUSTS REACH NEAR 45 MPH LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
..WEDNESDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
..THURSDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...COLD WAVE POSSIBLE.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CDG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 21, 3:52 AM ESTWind Chill AdvisoryGSPAlexander, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Graham and 12 more32 hr
Jan 21, 3:52 AM ESTWinter Storm WarningGSPAvery, Graham, Haywood, Madison, Mitchell, Swain and 1 more26 hr
Jan 21, 3:52 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryGSPBuncombe, Graham, Haywood, Jackson, Macon, Swain26 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2014Every wind advisory in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.