Wind Advisory 14, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

549 
WWUS72 KGSP 140335
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1135 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

...VERY GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY...

.INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL YIELD STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THESE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BEHIND
THE TROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

NCZ065-140445-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.141014T0400Z-141015T0400Z/
HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HENDERSONVILLE
1135 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR HENDERSON COUNTY. VERY GUSTY WINDS
MAY STILL AFFECT NORTHWEST HENDERSON COUNTY NEAR THE MOUNT PISGAH
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE COUNTY IS AT A LOW
ENOUGH ELEVATION TO AVOID THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

$$

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-141200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.141014T0400Z-141015T0400Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
1135 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY
NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WEAKLY ROOTED TREES COULD TOPPLE. UNSECURED ITEMS WILL
  LIKELY BE BLOWN ABOUT. TRAVEL IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES COULD
  BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>064-141200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.141014T0400Z-141015T0400Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WAYNESVILLE
1135 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN THE THE CENTRAL AND
  SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WEAKLY ROOTED TREES COULD TOPPLE. UNSECURED ITEMS WILL
  LIKELY BE BLOWN ABOUT. TRAVEL IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES COULD
  BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS

653 
WWUS72 KGSP 140801
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...

.INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL YIELD STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THESE WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-141630-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
401 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WEAKLY ROOTED TREES COULD TOPPLE. UNSECURED ITEMS 
  WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN ABOUT. TRAVEL IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>064-141630-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WAYNESVILLE
401 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN THE THE CENTRAL AND 
  SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WEAKLY ROOTED TREES COULD TOPPLE. UNSECURED ITEMS 
  WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN ABOUT. TRAVEL IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS

372 
WWUS72 KGSP 141209
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
809 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...

.INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WILL YIELD STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THESE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

NCZ065-142015-
/O.EXA.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HENDERSONVILLE
809 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WEAKLY ROOTED TREES COULD TOPPLE. UNSECURED ITEMS 
  WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN ABOUT. TRAVEL IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-501-503-505-142015-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD
809 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WEAKLY ROOTED TREES COULD TOPPLE. UNSECURED ITEMS 
  WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN ABOUT. TRAVEL IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

CDG

371 
WWUS72 KGSP 141949
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...

.INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
YIELD STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGE
TOPS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-150400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
349 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WEAKLY ROOTED TREES COULD TOPPLE. UNSECURED ITEMS 
  WILL LIKELY BE BLOWN ABOUT. TRAVEL IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES 
  COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
LG

628 
WWUS72 KGSP 150256
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1056 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WINDS CONTINUING TO RELAX IN THE MOUNTAINS...

.THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT A THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS HAS PASSED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT THE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG WINDS HAVE ENDED.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-150400-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1056 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE
EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG WINDS HAVE ENDED.

$$
WIMBERLEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
208 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH THE WEDGE BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT MONDAY...CAD WEDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM
THE SOUTH.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE PRODUCTS ALONG WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE INCREASING CEILINGS AND EASTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
ZONES AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER LATEST GUIDANCE AND RADAR RETURNS.  FULL
FORECAST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 645 AM EDT...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN
FOG THIS MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
REGIONS OF SHALLOWER COLD AIR DAMMING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING
ON NE FLOW TO KEEP DENSE FOG AT BAY...BUT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO MENTION GREATER AREAS OF FOG THROUGH NOON.

OTHERWISE...A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS SHARPENING UP FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS INTO W TX EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE CENTRAL CONUS H5 LOW CUTS OFF AND DEEPENS OVER MO AND
THE E COAST RIDGE BUILDS. AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD AIR DAMMING IS
SOLIDLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND THE CAD
LAYER SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY ERODE IN THE SCOURING SRLY FLOW JUST OFF
THE DECK THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE THAT LOCATIONS NW OF INTERSTATE
85 MAY SEE LITTLE EROSION OF THE CAD BY LATE DAY. WILL KEEP LOW END
LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING IN THE MOST PREFERRED UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE AREAS
OVER THE ERN MTNS AND WRN FOOTHILLS AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER BACK
THROUGH THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS SOME DRYING WORKS IN UNDER THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. WILL ALSO FEATURE A DRIZZLE MENTION
THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. ANY ISOLD THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE LOWER PIEDMONT LATE DAY WHERE CAD EROSION MAY OCCUR.
WILL SEVERELY UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY JUST EAST
OF THE MTNS WHERE CAD WILL LINGER.

THE DEEP MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TODAY AND THEN MIGRATE EWD ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE ABUNDANT UPPER FORCING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TREMENDOUS
CENTRAL CONUS LOW AND THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SRLY 850 MB WINDS OF 50 KT WILL LIKELY REACH THE
EXTREME SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY WELL BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT THE DECISION WILL LIKELY BE DEFERRED TO LATER THIS
AFTN IN ORDER TO BETTER REFINE THE LATE PERIOD 2 TO PERIOD 4 TIMING.
SLOW EROSION OF THE SFC CAD LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 210 AM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE ID MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE DEEPENING LOW MOVES ONLY
VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS MOVING THE LOW UP THE
OH VALLEY...ANOTHER ECMWF PARKING IT ABOUT IN PLACE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID OH AND TN VALLEYS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY MORNING. ROBUST GULF INFLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE JUST REACHED THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
INFLOW SPREADS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING
THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRING SOUTHERLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH
FACING BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...RAISING FLOODING CONCERNS. RAINFALL
OF OVER THREE INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER MOST SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY.
WINDS MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SW NC MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LAGS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A DRY SLOT MOVES
OVER OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH. HEIGHTS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SPREAD EAST AS WELL. THE
RESULTING COOL POOL INSTABILITY...THOUGH APPEARING LIMITED AT THIS
TIME...WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
AND PERHAPS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WARN
ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NGHT WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
UNDER CLOUDS WITH THE WIND STAYING UP. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR 6 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AS HEIGHTS FALL
ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 210 AM EDT MONDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A
CLOSED UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN USA...WITH THE ECMWF LOW
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...AND THE GFS LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE
LOW WEAKENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...OVER MI IN THE ECMWF...AND NORTHERN
NY IN THE GFS. BY SATURDAY MORNING AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER UPPER
MI...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO FL. AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS
LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC WHILE A NEW LOW FORMS OVER UPPER MI...AND AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIES ABOUT WHERE THE ECMWF TROUGH DOES.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
WEST MAY KEEP PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION GOING BEHIND THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE
GULF STATES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A DRYING WESTERLY DOWNLOAD FLOW TO
OUR AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE AND NO INSTABILITY.  DRY
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUR BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FIRST
FRONT...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF CYCLE.  INITIALIZED TAF UNDER IFR CIGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AMIDST CAD REGIME PREVAILS.  SOME IMPROVEMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I20 CORRIDOR GIVES CAUSE FOR SLIGHT INCREASES IN CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS INTRODUCED MVFR LEVEL RESTRICITIONS FOR SUCH AT
21Z.  LATEST CAMS INDICATE A ROUND OF SHRA SLIDING THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST
THEREFORE CARRIED MVFR VISB/CIGS WITH A PROB30 FOR IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING.  LASTLY...AS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS
UP AHEAD OF THE LARGE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA BY MID MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHERLY AND
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR
CIG AND VISB RESTRICITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE TAF CYCLE.  MOISTURE
UPGLIDE ATOP THE WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOWERED CIGS/VISB
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MVFR WORKING IN ACROSS THE SC SITES
AND KAVL...WITH KHKY LIKELY CONTINUING AT IFR LEVELS.  IFR CIG/VISB
RESTRICITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY
MORNING AMIDST SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASE SHRA
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST.  MODERATE/INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
KEEP VISB FROM REDUCING TO LESS THAN 3-4SM AT ALL SITES.  CARRIED
SHRA/VCTS MENTION AT ALL SITES BY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A THREAT
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GRADUAL DRYING
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MID TO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  84%     MED   71%     MED   77%     HIGH  86%
KGSP       HIGH  83%     MED   79%     MED   78%     HIGH  88%
KAVL       HIGH  91%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     MED   78%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  83%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     MED   79%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  93%
KAND       HIGH  82%     MED   65%     MED   74%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...CDG/HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...CDG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
524 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

GAZ010-017-NCZ035-053-063>065-501>510-SCZ001>007-141000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-ALEXANDER-BUNCOMBE-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
524 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME SEVERE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL ALLOW ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL LIKELY SEE
SIGNIFICANT RISES.
..WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY MIDDAY.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062-141000-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-
524 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME SEVERE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL ALLOW ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL LIKELY SEE
SIGNIFICANT RISES. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
..WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY MIDDAY.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008>014-019-
141000-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
524 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME SEVERE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL ALLOW ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL LIKELY SEE
SIGNIFICANT RISES.
..WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY MIDDAY.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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