Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2014

Wind Advisory 12, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

April 6, 20144 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Apr 6, 2014, 2:50 PM EDT for 4 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Apr 7, 2014, 12:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 16 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 6, 2014, 2:50 PM EDT (18:50 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 7, 2014, 12:00 AM EDT
Expired
Apr 7, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
In force
16 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Swain County, NC

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 251 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2014-04-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2014-04-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 108 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1479 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
108 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
118 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

257 
WWUS72 KGSP 061850
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES OF THE SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERATE
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE WINDIEST
CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE
GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF MONDAY.

NCZ051-052-058-059-070400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0012.140407T0400Z-140407T2000Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WAYNESVILLE
250 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT
MONDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY ABOVE 3500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
  MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING GRAHAM...SWAIN...HAYWOOD...AND NORTHERN
  JACKSON COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
  THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE ABATING LATE IN THE DAY.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD TOPPLE A FEW WEAKLY
  ROOTED TREES. UNSECURED OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT...AND TRAVEL
  WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS
4 follow-up statements
370 
WWUS72 KGSP 070017
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
817 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES OF THE SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERATE
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR THE HIGHER RIDGES
OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

NCZ051-052-058-059-071000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0012.140407T0400Z-140407T2000Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WAYNESVILLE
817 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM
EDT MONDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH 
  CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING GRAHAM...SWAIN...HAYWOOD...AND 
  NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND PERSIST 
  THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE ABATING LATE IN THE DAY.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD TOPPLE A FEW WEAKLY 
  ROOTED TREES. UNSECURED OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT...AND 
  TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

NED
833 
WWUS72 KGSP 070851
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
451 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL GENERATE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NCZ051-052-058-059-071700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140407T2000Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WAYNESVILLE
451 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH 
  CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING GRAHAM...SWAIN...HAYWOOD...AND 
  NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
  THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE ABATING LATE IN THE DAY.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD TOPPLE A FEW WEAKLY 
  ROOTED TREES. UNSECURED OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT...AND 
  TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

PM
387 
WWUS72 KGSP 071646
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1246 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES
OF THE SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL GENERATE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE GREAT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NCZ051-052-058-059-072000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140407T2000Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WAYNESVILLE
1246 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH 
  CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING GRAHAM...SWAIN...HAYWOOD...AND 
  NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH MID
  AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS COULD TOPPLE A FEW WEAKLY 
  ROOTED TREES. UNSECURED OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT...AND 
  TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

14
426 
WWUS72 KGSP 072009
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014

NCZ051-052-058-059-072115-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140407T2000Z/
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WAYNESVILLE
409 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WINDS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THIS EVENING. 

$$

NED

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Apr 6, 2:39 PM EDT, 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 6, 2:39 PM EDT, 11 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THIS AFTN...WITH NE WINDS AND SFC ISOBARS NOSING INTO THE WRN
CAROLINAS PROVIDING EVIDENCE OF HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING
DEVELOPING...EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W IS LIFTING E THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS
AFTN AND WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THROUGH MON. A 120 KT
JETLET AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL STREAM EWD OVER THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
AND BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE FORECAST AREA
STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES EJECTING EWD AS WELL. THE FIRST WAVE PRODUCING BETTER
WARM ADVECTION LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW OVER
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING AND SPREAD NE OVERNIGHT. THE
FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE IN SRLY UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE ARRIVAL OF A SRLY 850 MB JET OF 50+ KT
WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE SRN MTNS...AND AN NPW WILL BE POSTED FROM
GRAHAM TO HAYWOOD.

DEEPER CONVECTION WILL MAKE INROADS TOWARD/INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MON BOTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE W...AND IN THE
MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR SE OF THE CAD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS THE WEDGE FRONT PINCHES THE CAD LAYER BACK TO THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...AS DEPICTED ON THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK AND
SUPPORTED BY THE SREF ENSEMBLES. THERE IS STILL NOT PERFECT OVERLAP
BETWEEN THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SE OF THE TMB...AND
THE STRONGER SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE WEDGE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BEST
OVERLAP OF 500+ MUCAPE AND 40 TO 50 KT SFC TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SE PIEDMONT CIRCA 21Z MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
THETA E AXIS MOVES THROUGH. THE SEVERE MENTION IN THE HWO WILL
CONTINUE.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL...WITH PWAT ANOMALIES
RUNNING 2 STANDARD OR BETTER ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MON. HOWEVER...FFG
GUIDANCE INDICATES GENERALLY 2.5 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS IN 3 HR OR 4 TO 5
IN 6 HOURS FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND STORM TOTAL QPF USED IN THE
RIVER FORECASTS DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEND ANY STAGES TO FLOOD THROUGH
THE CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW
AS WELL. IF THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS ANY WETTER...AN FFA CAN BE
POSTED IN THE SHORTER TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. A
DRY SLOT WILL ALSO PUNCH IN FROM THE SW...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY
RAPID DECREASE IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHUD FALL
INTO THE 40S TO LWR 50S...EXCEPT MID 50S IN THE SE CORNER OF THE
CWFA.

TUESDAY...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE INTO THE LONGWAVE TROF
AXIS...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO DIG AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACRS THE
OH/TN VLYS. STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS SHOWN IN ALL
THE OP MODELS WITH THE APPROACHING TROF...MAXIMIZED ATOP THE CWFA
AROUND 00Z WED. FCST SNDGS SHOW STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
MIXING TUE AFTN/EVE. WITH MODELS TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM (THE GFS STILL A STRONG OUTLIER THO)...I WILL BUMP UP POPS
INTO THE CHC RANGE ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUE
EVE. THE BEST CHC WILL BE ALONG THE TN BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
NW FLOW IS THE STRONGEST. THICKNESSES FALL SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 3500 FT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUM IS
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROF AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST AND ANY NW FLOW SHWR
ACTIVITY SHUD END BY MIDDAY. SKIES SHUD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...WITH COOLER LLVL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE
WHILE UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ITS
WAKE...HEIGHTS RISE A SMALL DEGREE AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. ON FRI AND SAT...ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF AND
A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DIG DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE PROJECTED TO APPROACH THE FCST AREA BY EARLY
SAT. BEYOND THIS POINT...MODEL PROJECTIONS DIVERGE TO A GREATER
EXTENT WITH THE ECWMF BUILDING A STEEPER UPPER RIDGE BACK OVER THE
FAR EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE THE LATEST 12Z GFS HAS
A MORE PROGRESSIVE...NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUN. THIS BROAD TROF ACTS TO SQUASH THE
UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD TO THE EAST.

AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SW AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH NWLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE CWFA. OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36HRS...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND
ALLOW SLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW ON FRI...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STALL/WASH OUT JUST TO OUR NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z CMC...CONTINUE TO ALLOW A
PLUME OF DEEPER LYR MOISTURE TO REACH OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
SAT...YET THE NEWER RUN OF THE GFS MAINTAINS DRIER PROFILES. MOST OF
THE BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DRIER SOLUTION FOR OUR
AREA AND THUS...I HAVE PUT MORE WEIGHT ON IT. FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS OR TEMPS THIS TIME AROUND.
THE FCST IS DRY FOR MOST OF THE CWFA THRU NEW DAY 7 WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD START OUT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY ON THURS AND WARM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY/MID APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOWER VFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN PESKY
UPGLIDE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...AND CIGS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT. WILL TRANSITION DOWN RAPIDLY THROUGH
MVFR AFT 02Z AND REACH IFR LIKELY BY 06Z ALONG WITH DEVELOPING
STEADY RAINFALL. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ENE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...BUT WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TO ESE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS THE CAD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SE. ANOTHER CONCERN THROUGH 18Z
MON IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD NEED TO BE MENTIONED AS THE
CAD LAYER SHALLOWS AND THE SRLY JET INCREASES ALOFT. WILL OMIT THAT
FOR NOW...BUT IT COULD BE NEEDED IN LATER TAFS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
THUNDER MENTION THROUGH 18Z.

ELSEWHERE...RAPID DETERIORATION IN CIGS FROM LOWER VFR THROUGH MVFR
TO IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...ALONG WITH THE
ONSET OF STEADY...THEN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT
ENE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SE AT KAVL...WITH AN
ADJUSTMENT TO SE POSSIBLE TOWARD 18Z AT THE UPSTATE SITES IF THE CAD
FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NW MON. LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM KGMU TO KGSP TO KAVL...BUT
POSSIBLY THROUGHOUT AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE PERIOD. WILL OMIT ANY
TSTM MENTION FOR THE UPSTATE TAFS UNTIL BEYOND THE CURRENT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM THE W THROUGH MON
EVENING...BUT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE
AREA UNDER A PASSING TROUGH TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...NW
FLOW MOISTURE WOULD KEEP CIG RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE AT KAVL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK. DRY HIGH PRES WILL RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     MED   71%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  92%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  93%     MED   63%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   79%     HIGH  92%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   72%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NCZ051-052-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 6, 4:27 AM EDT, 10 hours 23 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-071000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
427 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ALONG THIS
TRACK...A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
071000-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
427 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALONG THIS
TRACK...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07

Nearby

Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2014Every wind advisory in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.