Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2014

Wind Advisory 10, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

March 25, 201417 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Mar 25, 2014, 7:07 PM EDT for 17 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 15 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 25, 2014, 7:07 PM EDT (23:07 UTC)
Expired
Mar 26, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT
In force
15 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-03-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-03-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 174 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1212 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
174 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
339 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

383 
WWUS72 KGSP 252307
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
707 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT... 
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...VERY WINDY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

.COLD AIR SPILLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH MOVING IN AND A STRONG LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-508-510-SCZ004>014-019-261000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0001.140326T0400Z-140326T1400Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.A.0002.140327T0400Z-140327T1300Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...SHELBY...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
707 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA 
  AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND 
  PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE
  UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KILL TENDER 
  VEGETATION. A HARD FREEZE COULD KILL CERTAIN AGRICULTURAL 
  CROPS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-261000-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.140325T2307Z-140326T1400Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
707 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGEST LATE THIS EVENING...THEN
  TAPER OFF AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY
  THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...BLOCKING A FEW ROADS AND LEADING TO
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MCAVOY
2 follow-up statements
006 
WWUS72 KGSP 260752
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
352 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING...
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...VERY WINDY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...

.COLD AIR SPILLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL LEAD TO A
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH MOVING IN AND A STRONG LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO YIELD WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-508-510-SCZ004>014-019-261500-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140326T1400Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.A.0002.140327T0400Z-140327T1300Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...SHELBY...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
352 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA 
  AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND 
  PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THIS MORNING. LOWS
  IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KILL TENDER 
  VEGETATION. A HARD FREEZE COULD KILL CERTAIN AGRICULTURAL 
  CROPS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-261400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-140326T1400Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
352 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG THIS MORNING AND WILL TAPER OFF
  AFTER SUNRISE.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY 
  THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...BLOCKING A FEW ROADS AND LEADING 
  TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

CDG
589 
WWUS72 KGSP 261408
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1008 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014


GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-508-510-SCZ004>014-019-262215-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140326T1400Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.A.0002.140327T0400Z-140327T1300Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...SHELBY...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
1008 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA 
  AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND 
  PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DAMAGE TENDER
  VEGETATION. A HARD FREEZE COULD KILL CERTAIN AGRICULTURAL CROPS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-261515-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-140326T1400Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1008 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...THEREFORE THE ADVISORY
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$
LG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Mar 25, 4:38 PM EDT, 2 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 25, 4:38 PM EDT, 2 hours 29 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THURSDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
415 PM UPDATE...CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACRS THE NC
PIEDMONT. RECENT REPORTS INDICATE THAT PTYPE IS GENERALLY RAIN
ALTHOUGH HEAVIER PCPN RATES ARE BEING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME BURSTS OF
SNOW. THIS LIKELY DUE TO UPDRAFTS TAPPING INTO COLDER AIR AT HIGHER
ALTITUDES. NO ACCUMULATION IS REPORTED OR EXPECTED WITH THE
PREDOMINANT TYPE CONTINUING TO BE RAIN UNTIL THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST
OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ALONG THE TENN BORDER...SHSN IN UPSLOPE FLOW ALSO CONTINUE...AND WE
CONSIDERED UPGRADING THE WINTER WX ADVY TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
TOTALS ALREADY RECEIVED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLE FURTHER
ACCUMS. GROUND TRUTH REPORTS INDICATE DECENT MELTING HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND LITTLE IMPACT ON ROAD CONDITIONS
EVEN AS MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE. RATES MAY PICK UP AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE ORTHOGONAL AND MOIST LATER THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW IT
APPEARS AN ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...IN RESPONSE TO ENCROACHING L/WV AXIS...FORCING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...MIXED PCPN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
INTO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SOLELY NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS
FOR LOCALES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STOUT
LLVL ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO THE MEAN FLOW ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY
COLD LLVL TEMPERATURE PROFILE...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
BEFORE TAPERING DOWN OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY AS MUCH 4 FRESH INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA. ALTHOUGH THE CWFA
LOOKS TO BE WELL REMOVED FROM THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...WITHIN THE
ROBUST CAA REGIME...NC MTN WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 50 MPH INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS SKIES CLEAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE..AN
EARLY SPRING ADVECTIVE FREEZE REMAINS LIKELY. DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR
AND SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD ATOP THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 15 TO 18 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST WED NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRES STEADILY MOVING OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THU. GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS EARLY WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY WED NIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM
THE WSW LATE MIGHT SLOW THE FALL. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING IN THE CURRENTLY ACTIVE FROST AREA...SO A FREEZE
WATCH WILL BE POSTED...WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST AS
WELL THU MORNING.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT FALLING HEIGHTS FROM THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY THU THROUGH FRI. A LEAD BATCH OF
BETTER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY RETURN FROM THE
WEST THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. HOWEVER....THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL FRI MORNING...ALONG WITH IMPROVING UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE...TO WARRANT LIKELY
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRI. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE PIEDMONT
INSTABILITY FRI AFTN...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A THUNDER MENTION
AT PRESENT. MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO WITHIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OF CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...FAST...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE STORY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE. A SERIES OF PACIFIC SHORT WAVES WILL
RACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS NEVER HANDLE
TIMING WELL IN THESE SITUATIONS...AND THERE ARE ALSO ISSUES WITH
HOW MUCH THE SHORT/MEDIUM WAVE TROFS AMPLIFY AS THE MOVE INTO THE
ERN CONUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE STRONGER LLVL ASCENT SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK EAST OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE NEW NAM STILL HAS A 30-40 KT H8 LLVL JET
OVER THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT. AND THE SREF HAS IT/S GREATEST QPE
OVER THE FA AT 00 UTC SATURDAY. SO IT WOULD MAKE SENSE TO HOLD ON TO
HIGH POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND I HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS.

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG THE WAVE CROSSING THE
REGION ON SATURDAY MORE THAN THEY DID ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS SLOWS
THE SFC FRONT WHICH IS NOW NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO DEEPEN A SFC LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN BACKING LLVL
FLOW ALONG WITH ABOUT A 50KT MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD. DEPENDING UPON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN WE SEE...THIS REGIME COULD SUPPORT STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY PERIOD. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE MILD AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS. BY TUESDAY THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
HOW MUCH THE NEXT APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES. IT/S WAY
TO EARLY TO HAZARD A GUESS AS TO WHICH SOLUTION IS RIGHT. FOR NOW
I/VE GONE WITH A DRY AND MILD FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...A PASSING SHOWER...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A LITTLE
MIXED PCPN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH 22-23Z. CLEARING SKIES
ARE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. VFR WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET BUT SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE NC
MTNS. WITHIN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...GUSTY WEST OR NW WINDS WILL BE
SEEN INTO THIS EVENING AS ANY CIGS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED
TO THE NC MTNS.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE EARLY WED BEFORE CRITICAL RH VALUES CAN
DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LIGHT WETTING OF FUELS ON TUE AND THE LACK OF
OVERLAP BETWEEN WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS ON WED...NO FIRE DANGER SPS
WILL BE POSTED AT THIS TIME FOR FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE WINDY
CONDITIONS LAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-028-029.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ048-
     051>053-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ033-
     049-050.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ068>072-082-508-510.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR NCZ068>072-082-508-510.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR SCZ004>014-019.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR SCZ004>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CSH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH/WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...HG
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 25, 3:52 PM EDT, 3 hours 15 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
352 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

NCZ033-049-050-262000-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
352 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 0 AND MINUS 5...WITH ISOLATED
VALUES AS LOW AS MINUS 10 AT THE VERY HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...BLACK ICE POSSIBLE. SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-262000-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
352 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN ZERO AND MINUS 5 ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...BLACK ICE POSSIBLE. SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ062>065-262000-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
352 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT ALSO PERHAPS ON SOME
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOWFALL...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLY CAUSING A FEW DOWNED TREES. FINALLY...WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN ZERO AND MINUS 5 ACROSS THE VERY
HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ035>037-056-057-501>507-509-SCZ001>003-262000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
352 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-508-510-SCZ004>014-019-262000-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
352 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...FREEZE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS BY LATE MORNING.
..THURSDAY...FREEZE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 25, 4:50 PM EDT, 2 hours 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     SNOW             2 SW SPRING CREEK       35.78N  82.88W
03/25/2014  E0.0 INCH        MADISON            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            5 INCHES ON THE GROUND THIS MORNING. ALMOST ALL MELTED
            TODAY.

&&

MCAVOY
Local storm report, Mar 25, 4:53 PM EDT, 2 hours 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
453 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     SNOW             2 W ASHEVILLE           35.57N  82.58W
03/25/2014  E0.5 INCH        BUNCOMBE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY SNOW SHOWER. ALL THE MORNINGS SNOW HAD MELTED.

&&

MCAVOY
Local storm report, Mar 25, 4:56 PM EDT, 2 hours 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
456 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     SNOW             WAYNESVILLE             35.48N  83.00W
03/25/2014  E0.0 INCH        HAYWOOD            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ALL SNOW FROM EARLIER HAS MELTED. A TRACE IN RECENT
            SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

MCAVOY
Local storm report, Mar 25, 5:11 PM EDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
511 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     SNOW             5 N BAKERSVILLE         36.09N  82.16W
03/25/2014  M8.0 INCH        MITCHELL           NC   COCORAHS

            4.5 INCHES PAST 9 HRS.

&&

MCAVOY
Local storm report, Mar 25, 5:51 PM EDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
551 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     SNOW             FAIRVIEW                35.52N  82.40W
03/25/2014  E0.5 INCH        BUNCOMBE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY SNOW FALLING. ROADS NOW GETTING COVERED. HAD 3
            INCHES BEFORE MELTING EARLIER TODAY.

&&

MCAVOY
Local storm report, Mar 25, 7:00 PM EDT, 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     SNOW             3 SE SPRUCE PINE        35.88N  82.03W
03/25/2014  M0.5 INCH        MITCHELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4.5 INCHES FELL THROUGH THIS MORNING. ALMOST ALL MELTED
            THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCHES OVER THE PAST
            HOUR.

&&

JOH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 25, 3:52 AM EDTFreeze WarningGSPCabarrus, Cleveland, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Polk and 2 more30 hr
Mar 25, 3:23 PM EDTFreeze WatchGSPCabarrus, Cleveland, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Polk and 2 more23 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2014Every wind advisory in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.