Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT...
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN
COASTLINE AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  BROAD SCALE UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ALOFT AS WAA
PATTERN PREVAILS.  AT THE SURFACE...REMNANT FRONT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE CONTINUES TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC...AND THE SC LOW COUNTRY.
MEANWHILE...HURRICANE BERTHA IS CHURNING THROUGH THE CARRIBEAN AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTS OUT TO
SEA OFF THE FL/GA COASTLINE.

CLOSER TO HOME...EAST/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW IS YIELDING RATHER WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SOUTH INTO
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.  ABOVE MENTIONED WAA ALOFT IS
HAMPERING ANY CONVECTION AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE
IN THE MID LEVELS...WHICH IS ALSO KEEPING LAPSE RATES MARGINAL.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY OF THE CURRENT COVERAGE TO EXPAND OR PROPAGATE OUTSIDE
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE LATE
EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING.  ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL LOW IS WORKING
TO VEER FLOW EASTERLY DESPITE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY PREVAILING WITH DOMINANT NORTHERLY FLOW.  THAT SAID...PBL
MOISTURE IS INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE LOW SLIDES
UP THE COAST.  THUS...A TRICKY FOG FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE
MID/LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AMONGST CALMING WINDS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.  THAT SAID...OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TODAYS PRECIPITATION...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO VEER WESTERLY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS...AND WEAKER INHIBITION FOR
CONVECTION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE FAIRLY MODEST CAPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR TOMORROW WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
PULSE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING.  REGARDING THE
ENTIRE NEAR TERM FORECAST...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF I77 THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE LEVEL POPS FURTHER
WEST.  POPS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAMPING UP YET AGAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE PIEDMONT REGIONS...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECTING A RETURN TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER
NORMAL LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT MONDAY...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH FROM NEW ENGLAND
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL APPROACH WESTERN NC BY LATE WED...AND THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WED NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW AND A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE IDEA THAT ANY
CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. ON THU
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE WELL S OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PORTEND ANOTHER DRY
DAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER IN THE MOUNTAINS...AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND WINDS BEGIN TO VEER
TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSOLATION EACH
DAY...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO BOTH WED AND THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A WET
PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU THE
UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST COAST PUSHING IT ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THEN
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OR WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA SAT...THEN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING MONDAY.
AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT HELPING KEEP LOTS OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE IN A WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN.
THE LAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT. HOWEVER...THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE HIGH REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NE. THE MAIN DETAIL DIFFERENCES ARE THE LOCATION OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVES/LOW PRESSURE
AREAS AND THE RESULTING FORCING. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FORCING AND CLOSER WITH THE SFC LOWS...BRINGING IN MUCH MORE QPF
THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS STILL WET...JUST NOT AS MUCH TOTAL QPF.
HAVE LIMITED POP TO GOOD CHC FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THESE POPS WILL
INCREASE AS MDLS COALESCE ON BETTER TIMING AND LOCATION. GIVEN THE
COOL AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...HIGHS WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...AND COULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE TIME OF GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE AND HIGHEST QPF...WHICH
IS NOW THE SAT/SUN TIME FRAME. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THRU THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED TAF WITH NE FLOW AT 09KTS UNDER LOW
VFR BKN CU.  CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING AS MIXED LAYER DECAYS AFTER HEATING IS LOST.  AS NOTED
ABOVE...CARRIED FM GROUP FOR MVFR 4SM FOG RESTRICTIONS FROM 11-13Z.
ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE INDICATES CIGS ON TUESDAY MORNING BEING
SIMILAR TO THAT OF THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...GRADIENT OF IFR CIGS
COULD SETUP JUST EAST OF THE AIRFIELD THEREFORE OPTED FOR SCT DECK
INSTEAD.  AT 13Z INCREASED NE WINDS SLIGHTLY UNDER HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS BEFORE LOW VFR CU REFORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.  INITIALIZED ALL TAF SITES UNDER
VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE DECOUPLING PBL LEADS TO MVFR/IFR FOG
RESTRICTIONS AT ALL SITES.  BEST FOG COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THEREFORE PREVAILED MVFR WITH AN IFR
TEMPO AT KAVL.  HIGHLIGHTED MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE LOW VFR
CU REDEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.  LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE ENE ASIDE FROM AT KAVL
WHERE CHANNELING KEEPS WINDS MORE N.

OUTLOOK...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMPT IMPROVED DIURNAL
CONVECTION CHANCES INTO MID WEEK LEADING TO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY LEADING TO FURTHER ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY WEEKS END AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  90%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  97%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-052015-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
408 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
052015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
408 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014

GAZ010-SCZ001-041945-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-RABUN-
258 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL OCONEE AND CENTRAL
RABUN COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKEMONT...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LONG CREEK...

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

LAT...LON 3489 8317 3472 8324 3479 8342 3492 8339

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
412 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014

NCZ504-506-042100-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-
412 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL BURKE AND EAST
CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 409 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE JAMES...OR 6 MILES EAST OF MARION...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE JAMES...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3572 8175 3562 8193 3566 8200 3575 8198
      3579 8190

08