Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A MID LEVEL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY...AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 225 PM...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS STORMS LINED UP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UPSTATE...NWD THROUGH THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS AND
SWD INTO THE MIDLANDS...WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE WEST. THE
AXIS OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK VORT LOBE APPROACHES. THE NCEP WRF-ARW AT
LEAST IN THE VERY NEAR TERM LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CAM HANDLING
THIS. IT THEN ROTATES ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EASTWARD DURING
THE EVENING...FIZZLING IT OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT I HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE FAR WEST IN DEFERENCE TO 12Z NAM. THE UPSHOT IS THAT
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA AT LEAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE RATHER ROBUST WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN AND LOWER
SBCAPES DUE TO CLOUDS...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

ON THU...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A DPVA AXIS ROTATING THROUGH THERE
SHOULD BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. USED A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE OT GENERATE MOST GRID
FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED.
OR AT LEAST ABOVE CLIMO POPS...AS AN AXIS OF DEEP LAYER RH AND HIGH
PWATS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAKLY-FORCED TROFS WILL SWING THRU THE CWFA...ENHANCING LIFT AND
LLVL CONVERGENCE. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON ONLY MODEST CAPE
EACH AFTN...WITH WEAK SHEAR COMPARED TO WHAT WE/VE HAD THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS.

I TOOK A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS. THE RESULT IS MID
TO HIGH-END CHC...FOLLOWING A TYPICAL DIURNAL PEAK. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...IT
LOOKS MARGINAL...AS PROFILES REMAIN MOIST IN THE MID LVLS...WHILE
SHEAR LOOKS TOO WEAK TO ORGANIZE MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTNS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT...GIVEN HIGH PWATS
AND DECENT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1205 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF A
WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE IN/NEAR THE CWFA ALONG WITH A WEAKNESS/
PERTURBATION IN THE UPPER FLOW TRANSLATING TOWARD/ATOP THE SE CONUS.
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF SAID FEATURES...ONE CAN INFER THAT OUR
DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO BE ABOVE CLIMO VALUES. IT IS NOT
CONCLUSIVE ON JUST HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACRS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE 11/00 UTC OP ECMWF STILL DEPICTING
CONSIDERABLE RESPONSE WITH SAID FEATURE AS LATE AS 00 UTC TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT...TIMING CONCERNS REALLY DON/T AFFECT THE PROGGED
SENSIBLE WX FCST...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES A BIT ABOVE CLIMO POP AND
MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEG F ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PROGGED TO CREEP IT/S WAY
TOWARD/INTO THE REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WILL PLAN ON WARMING UP
DAILY MAXIMUMS AND DIPPING DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES BACK DOWN TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF CONVECTION AT THE AIRFIELD
AND THEN THE PROSPECT OF LOWERING CIGS LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLY INTO
THE IFR RANGE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM ABOUT I-26 WESTWARD. EXPECT THAT THE AXIS OF
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH THE CLT AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TEMPO TSRA IN THE 22Z-02Z
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS COULD LINGER BEYOND THAT BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT AND
EXPECT THAT IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH COOLING. THE
IFR SHOULD THEN LIFT BY MID MORNING THU.

ELSEWHERE...RADAR SHOWS INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
ABOUT I-26 WESTWARD. WILL CARRY TEMPO TSRA ALL TAF SITES FOR ABOUT A
4 HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL HANDLE THAT WITH VCTS. RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND
LIFTING BY MID MORNING THU.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG MAY FORM...AND IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FALLS THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  84%     MED   71%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   75%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   73%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   78%     MED   70%
KAND       HIGH  99%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VISIN
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
336 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND OR HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

ARK

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