Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY...THEN WILL MOVE NORTH AS WARM FRONT AND LEAVE THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR
REGION AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF LATE AFTERNOON...SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SRN FRINGE OF THE CLT METRO AREA AND EAST OF I-77...BUT COVERAGE
HAS DECREASED AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.
MEANWHILE...SOME DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE MTNS AND BLUE
RIDGE...ALLOWING A FEW NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE
POP OVER THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. POP WAS
LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER NE GEORGIA AND MOST OF THE UPSTATE
BASED ON LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 245 PM...CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I-77 WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THRU THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. ELSEHWERE...MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT BEST IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY EVENING. EVEN THIS MAY BE
GENEROUS AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH
POSSIBLY SOME NVA MOVING THRU. THAT SAID...THE BEST CHC WILL BE
ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR WHERE THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MDLS SHOW LINGERING ACTIVITY IN WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SHUD BE
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK. LOWS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO A MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. PREVIOUSLY...SOME MDLS WERE BUILDING IN A DRY
HIGH PRESSURE AREA INTO THE AREA KEEPING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
A MINIMUM. THESE MDLS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT SCENARIO. HOWEVER...A
GUIDANCE BLEND DOES SHOW AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND TO POP.
THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH SCT COVERAGE FOR THE NC MTNS WITH
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...SVR STORM CHC WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1130 AM EDT SUNDAY...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A BAND OF DEEP LAYER
RH...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE LATE NITE HOURS ON MONDAY. STILL EXPECTING THE
MEAN FLOW REGIME ATOP THE CWFA TO INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
CYCLONE CENTER LIFTS NNEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO FEW DEG F ABOVE PERSISTENCE...STRONG HTG/MOIST BLYR SHOULD
PROMOTE POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. BASED ON THIS...WILL PLAN
ON CREEPING DIURNALLY FAVORED POP UPWARD TO ABOVE CLIMO VALUES.
GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...FEEL THAT A FEW SVR STORMS ARE
PROBABLE.

A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD WITHIN MODERATE SSW FLOW. GIVEN THE
PROGGED ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STG TO SVR
STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS AT 00Z THURSDAY.
AFTER AN CLOSED 500MB LOW OPENS OVER ILLINOIS LATE WED...ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WITH AXIS TO THE MISS DELTA AT 00Z THURS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AT DAMPEN OUT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION
THURS NIGHT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST TO
EAST MID LEVEL FLOW IN LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN OUR AREA WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST...BUT AT
TIMES THERE WILL BE A LIGHT SE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN NC...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE YUCATAN
LATE IN THIS PERIOD WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD FLORIDA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DOES NOT SHOW ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THURS WITH THE
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAMPENING TROUGH. CONSIDERING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS...MIN TEMPS WILL TEND TO BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SH/TSRA MOVING ACROSS AIRFIELD WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
20Z. CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THRU SUNSET...BUT CHC
WILL BE LOWER. WILL KEEP VCSH IN AFTER 20Z TO COVER...BUT VFR SHUD
PREVAIL. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING
INVERSION...EXPECT MVFR VSBY AND CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING THEN VFR AROUND NOON MONDAY WITH ONLY SCT CU FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CHC OF CONVECTION MON TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR NOW. SLY
WIND THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES SELY THIS EVENING THEN CALM OVERNIGHT.
SWLY WIND EXPECTED MON.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION MOST LIKELY AT KHKY THRU THE AFTERNOON...SO
HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS THERE. HOWEVER...CHC MUCH LOWER ELSEWHERE SO
HAVE REMOVED ALL WORDING ATTM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR INTO THE
EVENING WITH A RETURN TO MVFR THEN IFR OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT KAND.
CIGS SHUD LIFT OT VFR BY MID MORNING OR NOON. CHC OF CONVECTION MON
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR NOW. SWLY WIND TURNS N TO NW OVERNIGHT OR
CALM...WITH SWLY WINDS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN
TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG MAY FORM.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     MED   76%     MED   71%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     MED   77%     MED   62%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   71%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  88%     MED   68%     MED   65%     HIGH  84%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  81%     MED   65%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-092030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
418 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS PROBABLE INTO THIS
EVENING. IT IS STILL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT A COUPLE
OF STORMS WILL GROW LARGE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
551 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014

NCZ501-502-504-082230-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
551 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL BURKE AND CALDWELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 548 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LENOIR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  GAMEWELL...
  LENOIR...
  CEDAR ROCK...
  HUDSON...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3587 8133 3580 8133 3575 8137 3566 8149
      3591 8173 3604 8156

KRENTZ

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