Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

June 4, 20145 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 4, 2014, 9:04 PM EDT for 5 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 42 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jun 4, 2014, 9:04 PM EDT (01:04 UTC)
Expired
Jun 4, 2014, 9:46 PM EDT
In force
42 min
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon

Counties Avery County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jun 4, 9:15 PM EDTHAIL 14 Ne Bakersville, NCTIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 11 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jun 4, 8:00 PM EDTTornado WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 195 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2014-06-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 587 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2014-06-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 80 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
587 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-17 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1605 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
80 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
96 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

736 
WUUS52 KGSP 050104
SVRGSP
NCC011-023-027-111-121-050200-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0087.140605T0104Z-140605T0200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
904 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN AVERY COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  MITCHELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

* AT 901 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  BAKERSVILLE...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRUCE PINE...AND MOVING
  SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  INGALLS AND SPRUCE PINE.
  LINVILLE FALLS.
  JONAS RIDGE AND ASHFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. IF THE ROTATION CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...A TORNADO WARNING MAY BE ISSUED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3611 8212 3611 8208 3613 8205 3613 8204
      3615 8202 3597 8152 3567 8191 3597 8220
      3601 8219 3601 8224 3607 8229 3615 8215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 305DEG 30KT 3605 8213

$$
JOH
3 follow-up statements
474 
WWUS52 KGSP 050120
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
920 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

NCC011-023-027-111-121-050200-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-140605T0200Z/
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-MCDOWELL NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
920 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BURKE...WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL...NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN
MITCHELL AND SOUTHERN AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

AT 918 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
INGALLS...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF SPRUCE PINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LINVILLE FALLS AND JONAS RIDGE.
  ASHFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. IF THE ROTATION CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...A TORNADO WARNING MAY BE ISSUED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 8214 3600 8217 3607 8212 3611 8208
      3613 8205 3613 8204 3597 8152 3567 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 305DEG 30KT 3599 8201

$$
JOH
501 
WWUS52 KGSP 050133
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
933 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

NCC011-023-027-111-121-050200-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-140605T0200Z/
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-MCDOWELL NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
933 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BURKE...WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL...NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
MITCHELL AND SOUTHERN AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

AT 931 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LINVILLE FALLS...OR 8 MILES EAST OF SPRUCE PINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN BURKE...SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL...
SOUTHERN AVERY AND WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...TABLE ROCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. IF THE ROTATION CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...A TORNADO WARNING MAY BE ISSUED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 8156 3572 8186 3596 8208 3607 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 305DEG 30KT 3594 8192

$$
JOH
584 
WWUS52 KGSP 050146
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
946 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

NCC011-023-027-111-121-050156-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-140605T0200Z/
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-MCDOWELL NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
946 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BURKE...WEST
CENTRAL CALDWELL...NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND
SOUTHERN AVERY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

LAT...LON 3595 8156 3572 8186 3596 8208 3607 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 305DEG 30KT 3588 8181

$$
JOH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 4, 7:44 PM EDT, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 4, 7:44 PM EDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN LARGELY UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE....THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE MTN SPINE BEGINNING TO PAN OUT WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF S/W
CONVECTION AHEAD OF DEVELOPING MCS OVER SRN IL/IN AND WRN KY. THE
NRN STORMS IN ERN TN ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL / STRONG WINDS AND
WILL ANTICIPATE SIMILAR STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND NRN NC
MTNS IMMINENTLY. THE MAIN STRONG/SEVERE TSTM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
OVER THE NRN MTNS AND FHILLS BEFORE THE NEXT SCHEDULED UPDATE AT
1030 PM.

430 PM EDT UPDATE....THE ATMOS REMAINS CAPPED OFF ACROSS THE CWFA
WITH NO SIGFNT CU DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON VIS YET. POCKETS OF VORT
ENERGY ARE INSTIGATING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE NORTH
THE NW OF THE CWFA AND EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASING IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EAST AND TO THE ACROSS ERN TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS. MADE MINOR ADJ TO T/TD GRIDS AND LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS THE
NON/MTNS A LITTLE.

AS OF 225 PM...THE DECAYING MCV AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS CAN BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS ERN KY/TN...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CLOUD SHIELD PERHAPS ENHANCING LIFT FOR A FEW SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS
ACRS ERN TN AND CENTRAL GA ATTM. THE ATMOSPHERE ACRS THE CWFA HAS
DESTABILIZED TO THE TUNE OF 1500 TO OVER 3000 J/KG PER THE LATEST
LAPS. BUT SURPRISINGLY...MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. I STILL
THINK CHC POP IN THE MTNS AND SLGT CHC ELSEWHERE LOOKS GOOD.

LATER THIS EVENING...ALL EYES ON THE OHIO VALLEY...WHERE GUIDANCE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INVOF A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS AND THE 12Z NAM ARE REALLY CONVERGING ON
A LARGE MCS DEVELOPING...WITH SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS...PROPAGATING
SEWD ACRS THE TN VLY INTO THE NC MTNS THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY HIGH ON THIS...AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW 2500 TO OVER 3500
J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH 35-45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. WE
EXPECT HIGH WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE LINE. TIMING IS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE THINKING IS A BIT EARLIER THAN
BEFORE...POSSIBLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NC MTNS AROUND 10 PM
TO MIDNIGHT. I HAVE BUMPED UP POP TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE TN BORDER
AND LIKELY ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE.

OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE STILL LOW ON HOW ROBUST THE CONVECTION WILL
BE AS IT GETS EAST OF THE MTNS. THE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE THAT AT
LEAST A REMNANT OUTFLOW/DECAYING MCS SHUD SURVIVE...ALTHOUGH WILL IT
BE MORE EAST ACRS NC OR WEST ACRS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. I OPTED TO
KEEP JUST A CHC POP ALONG AND EAST OF I-85. EVEN IF THE CONVECTION
BECOMES SHALLOW AND STOPS PRODUCING LIGHTNING...THE COLD POOL MIGHT
BE STRONG ENUF TO CONTINUE KNOCKING TREES DOWN HEADING INTO THE LWR
PIEDMONT. TEMPS SHUD DROP INTO THE 60S WITHIN THE COLD POOL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

THURSDAY...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTION
REDEVELOPMENT...AS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWFA WILL BE
OVERTURNED BY THE EARLIER MCS. THE GFS LOOKS TOO BULLISH ON RECOVERY
WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACRS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT EARLY AFTN.
THE NAM LOOKS REASONABLE ON ONLY MODEST INSTBY...HIGHEST IN THE SW
ZONES OF GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG. EITHER WAY...THERE SHUD STILL BE
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE PROFILES. SO ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SEGMENTS AND A FEW ROTATING STORMS. I
HAVE CUT BACK POP ACRS THE NORTH...WHICH LOOKS LEAST UNSTABLE...BUT
KEEP A SOLID HIGH-END CHC POP FOR THE SRN THIRD. TEMPS ALSO MAY BE A
BIT TRICKY...IF THERE IS A LOT OF DEBRIS CIRRUS. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE AREA SHUD MANAGE TO GET BACK INTO THE 80S TO LWR 90S IN
THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...THE SLOWLY PASSING FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY STALL
OVER THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT. A FAIRLY
ACTIVE SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
KEEP SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL BE HARD TO TIME...BUT THE FIRST SUCH WAVE
APPEARS PROGGED TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT. THE SECOND VORTICITY MAXIMA IS
SLATED MORE TOWARD FRIDAY AFTN...WHEN PEAK HEATING SHOULD ALLOW MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO RECOVER SB CAPE VALUES TO 1000 TO 2000
J/KG. IN ADDITION...LINGERING WESTERLY SHEAR COULD PROVIDE SOME
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION
FRI AFTN. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO AT
PRESENT.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT AS A
TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. EXPECT SOME DRYING THROUGHOUT THE
PROFILES AS WELL...HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN
FAIRLY MOIST. UNDER THE SHALLOW RIDGE...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
COULD CREATE MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PERMIT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
SAT AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD
BE LESS UNDER THE GROWING RIDGE. MAXES SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...THE 0Z ECMWF INDICATES THAT A H5 SHORT
WAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL Q-VECTORS INDICATE THAT THE MAIN
REGION OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...A REGION OF WEAK FORCING WILL PASS CROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK
FORCING...BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. THE ENVIRONMENT
FEATURING LOW SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT GENERAL CONVECTION. USING A BLEND
OF PREFERRED GUIDANCE...MORNING TEMPS SHOULD RANGE AROUND 5 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL.

MONDAY...A SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE APPEARS MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER THAN THE
ONE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...TEMPS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THEREFORE...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SUPPORTED BY THE ARRIVAL OF MID-LEVEL FORCING AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY. I WILL FORECAST LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WITH 40 POPS EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FAVORING THE 0Z ECMWF...H5 RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CONUS. OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD RANGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. REMAINING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S COULD YIELD SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PROVIDE
A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ON WEDNESDAY...I WILL LIMIT CHANCES TO THE
MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...WAITING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPSTREAM MCS INTO THE MTNS
AND FTHILLS LATER THIS EVENING WITH COLD POOL CONVECTION PUSHING
EAST TOWARD THE TERMINAL...MOST LIKELY REACHING AROUND 03Z.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST SO WILL KEEP TEMPO MENTION THROUGH 07Z. WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT NW/LY BUT COULD BE VRB GUSTY TO 25-30 KTS DURING THIS
TIME. BNDRY MOVES JUST TO SOUTH THU MID DAN AND THINS WILL KEEP
WINDS NNW/LY WITH SCT THUNDER DEVELOPING AFT 18Z.

ELSEWHERE...THE INCOMING MCS WILL AFFECT KAVL AND KHKY WITH THUNDER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS. WINDS SHOULD BE
MODERATELY GUSTY WITH COLD POOL PUSHING THROUGH. WINDS WEAKEN AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARD THE SC TERMINALS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE
LESS WITH SHRA IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 10Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD
START UP RELATIVELY EARLY ACROSS SC...AROUND 18Z...WITH SFC BNDRY
LINGERING IN THE AREA. ALL SITES GET A PROB30 TSRA EXCEPT VCTS AT
KHKY...WHERE SB INSTABILITY WILL BE A MINIMA.

OUTLOOK...GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD ENABLE DIURNAL CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH  87%     MED   66%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...NED/STAARMANN
AVIATION...SBK
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 4, 3:48 PM EDT, 5 hours 16 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-052000-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
348 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ARRIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS MAY ARRIVE IN THE MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FAST
MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY REACHING THE TENNESSEE
BORDER AREA BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREES AND
POWER LINES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD
PROVE HAZARDOUS AS WELL.

PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER THIS EVENING. BE ALERT FOR ANY
WARNINGS. HAVE A NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR SMART PHONE APPLICATION SET
TO ALERT YOU IN CASE WARNINGS OCCUR AFTER YOU HAVE GONE TO BED.
AVOID SLEEPING IN LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE HIT BY FALLING TREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-052000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
348 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FAST MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE...AND MAY
ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY WEAKENING...SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH SUNRISE. DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREES AND
POWER LINES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD
PROVE HAZARDOUS AS WELL.

PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER LATE THIS EVENING. IF A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...THIS
WILL MAKE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND THE PIEDMONT OF
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. HAVE A NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR SMART PHONE APPLICATION SET TO ALERT YOU IN CASE WARNINGS
OCCUR AFTER YOU HAVE GONE TO BED. CONSIDER AVOIDING SLEEPING IN
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE HIT BY FALLING TREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 4, 8:57 PM EDT, 7 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
857 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

NCZ033-050-503-505-050145-
AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-
857 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BURKE...NORTH
CENTRAL MCDOWELL...MITCHELL AND AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 852 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BULADEAN...OR 13 MILES WEST OF NEWLAND...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BAKERSVILLE...
  INGALLS...
  LINVILLE...
  JONAS RIDGE...
  ASHFORD...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3607 8174 3579 8198 3600 8220 3601 8219
      3602 8222 3607 8228 3616 8221 3615 8218
      3615 8215 3611 8212 3611 8208 3613 8205
      3613 8204 3616 8200

JOH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 4, 8:57 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAvery, Mitchell48 min
Jun 4, 10:00 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAlexander45 min
Jun 4, 10:03 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPBurke42 min
Jun 4, 10:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPAlexander, Caldwell, Iredell29 min
Jun 4, 11:10 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPGraham, Madison, Swain50 min
Jun 5, 3:49 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPLincoln41 min
Jun 5, 3:56 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRowan49 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2014Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.