Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

231 
WWUS52 KGSP 281942
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

NCC175-282030-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-140528T2030Z/
TRANSYLVANIA NC-
342 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE
TOXAWAY...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BREVARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST
CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 8294 3521 8288 3513 8281 3508 8298
      3515 8298 3515 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 243DEG 6KT 3513 8294

$$

KRENTZ

675 
WWUS52 KGSP 282001
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

NCC175-282011-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-140528T2030Z/
TRANSYLVANIA NC-
401 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

LAT...LON 3520 8294 3521 8288 3513 8281 3508 8298
      3515 8298 3515 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 243DEG 6KT 3514 8291

$$

KRENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. THEN A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY HIGH
DCAPE VALUES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. STILL EXPECT BEST COVERAGE TO BE OVER THE MTNS
AND I-40 CORRIDOR WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE
HIGHEST SVR POTENTIAL IS WHERE COVERAGE IS LESS...BUT THERE SHUD
STILL BE ENUF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR A HANDFUL OF
WARNINGS. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE MAINLY DIURNAL...EVEN THO A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE
ENUF FORCING OR DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SHRA OVER
THE NC MTNS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS CHC RELATIVELY LOW. SHUD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THINS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THU BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT AN
EARLIER START TO CONVECTION AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE CONVERGENCE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW MOVE INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE SHOULD RAMP UP TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE MTNS BY NOON...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF NC AND THE
ERN UPSTATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH SCT COVERAGE SHUD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA. THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
EVEN WHERE THE FRONT MOVES IN AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN BETTER
THAN 6.5C/KM...WITH LOW END MODERATE INSTABILITY POSSIBLE...ESP OVER
THE SRN CWFA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MUCH LESS
STEEP AND DCAPE VALUES WILL BE LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS GIVEN
THE INCREASED MOISTURE. SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN A WEAK FLOW REGION
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND A DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE NERN
US. STILL...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...INCREASED LOW LEVEL FORCING...
AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION...ANOTHER DAY WITH A HANDFUL OF
SVR STORMS IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
COULD DEVELOP DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...SLOW MOVING STORMS AND
UPSLOPE FLOW. EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN...INCREASED CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE...THICKNESSES REMAIN HIGH. THEREFORE...HIGHS SHUD BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WHILE A CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER LA...AND AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER MN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SE
ON FRIDAY....EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BY SATURDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL HAVE FILLED...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED
TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL EXTEND TO N FL.

A SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY INTO GA ON
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION...AS THE MODEL SHOW DEEP MOISTURE WITH
THIS FEATURE...AND VARYING DEGREES OF INSTABILITY...EVEN AT NIGHT
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT COULD
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL...AS THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
CELLS TRAINING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

DRYING FROM ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BE LOW TO OCCUR...BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY...
SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION RATES. THE BEST COVERAGE
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE MODELS SUPPORT
LINGERING MOISTURE IN AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A REDUCED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND MOISTURE...WITH MINIMUMS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND MAXIMUMS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A CLOSED WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN USA. THE UPPER RIDGE
PROGRESSES LITTLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT DOES DEAMPLIFY...BY
WEDNESDAY A NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXISTS FROM THE S TI THE MID ATLANTIC.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY.
THIS AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT AN
EASTERLY FLOW COMPONENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL
KEEP MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WHERE
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST...DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. BY MONDAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE
CAROLINAS...WITH A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE RIDGE REMAINING.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WEAKENS FURTHER AND SETTLES
FARTHER SOUTH...AND LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. GULF INFLOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...BUT THE MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN THE BEST BET FOR CONVECTION DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK A THE INITIALLY COOL AIR
MASS MODERATES...DESPITE FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO AFTER
COLLABORATION...HAVE TEMPO FROM 21Z-24Z TO COVER. WSW WIND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. DEVELOPING BKN VFR CU SHUD SCATTER OUT
THIS EVENING THEN RETURN BY NOON. CALM WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMES LIGHT
NE AS BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ANY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BEGIN A LITTLE SOONER THU AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS WITH A CELL VERY
CLOSE TO KAVL. HAVE ADDED AN EARLY TEMPO THERE...WITH VCTS ALL AREAS
THRU THE AFTERNOON. W TO SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT AND NW DURING THE DAY THU. DEVELOPING BKN VFR CU SCATTERS
OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR VSBY AND CIGS AGAIN AT KAVL...WITH MVFR
VSBY KHKY/KAND. VFR RETURNS QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING EARLIER AS A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES IN. ANY LOW CLOUDS
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE N
ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY EACH MORNING IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND ALSO AT FOOTHILL/PIEDMONT LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVIER RAIN
FALLS. SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%     HIGH  84%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-291915-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
314 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH INTO NORTH CAROLINA...TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS AND
BE SLOW-MOVING...CAUSING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-291915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
314 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
933 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             2 SSW ETOWAH            35.29N 82.61W
05/27/2014  E0.88 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL BEGAN AS PEA SIZED THEN GREW TO JUST UNDER QUARTER
            SIZED.

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ETOWAH                  35.32N 82.60W
05/27/2014                   HENDERSON          NC   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND ETOWAH.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             10 SE MONROE            34.88N 80.42W
05/27/2014  E0.50 INCH       UNION              NC   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL PEOPLE IN THIS VICINITY HAD MARBLE SIZED HAIL AND
            STRONG ENOUGH WIND TO BLOW DOWN SMALL LIMBS.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

NCZ501-281915-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
230 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GLOBE...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLOWING
ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3609 8159 3603 8160 3605 8175 3607 8173
      3607 8175 3609 8176 3610 8179 3612 8180
      3613 8173 3612 8162

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

NCZ033-281930-
AVERY-
247 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL AVERY COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 242 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GLOBE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLOWING
ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3610 8179 3610 8177 3609 8176 3607 8175
      3607 8173 3604 8176 3601 8180 3610 8186
      3612 8181

KRENTZ