Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS THE NC
MTNS AND NRN TIER...TAPERING OFF TO THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAY STILL SEE A SVR STORM OR TWO GIVEN
THE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES. CONVECTION SHUD
BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHRA COULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE NC MTNS OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHUD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS
TRY TO MOVE THRU THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA WED. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LESS INSTABILITY THAN THAN TUESDAY...BUT REMAIN UNSTABLE. LEE
TROF WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS. GUIDANCE BLEND SHOWS BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
SOUTH OF THERE. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS WITH POP WHICH IS ALSO
CLOSE TO PREV FCST. SHUD SEE LESS OF A SVR CHC WED WITH LOWER
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE VALUES. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE RESIDES OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS...AND AND UPPER
TROUGH BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EAST
COAST...AND THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS NEAR THE NW GULF COAST. AN UPPER
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON EXTENDING SE TO THE TN
RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY.

OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING UNTIL
COOLING STABILIZES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING NC BY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND SC BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR PRONOUNCED UPDRAFTS.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH GA AND SOUTHERN SC
ON FRIDAY. DESPITE SHIFTING WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...
MOISTURE WILL BE REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION DURING DAYTIME HEATING.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE WEAKENING UPPER
RIDGE...WITH A DOWNWARD TREND TOWARD NORMAL AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT
AND THE FRONT PASSES BY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH FROM NOVA SCOTIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FROM SE STATES TO OHIO
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH OF OUR AREA INTO
FLORIDA THEN DISSIPATES BY MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTH
ALONG ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TO START THE WEEK...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER ATLANTIC AS UPPER RIDGE BROADENS EASTWARD WITH GFS RIDGE AXIS
ALONG APPALACHIANS AROUND 00Z WED. THE CURRENT VERSION OF THE ECMWF
HAS MUCH FLATTER RIDGE OVER SE STATES WITH ANTICYCLONE OVER TEXAS.
GFS HAS A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMING INTO THE GULF FROM WESTERN
CARRIBEAN IN MID WEEK WHILE NOT SHOWN ON EC.

THE FRONT BEING IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY WILL KEEP FOCUS OF
CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS TO WESTERN UPSTATE AND NE GA. CONVECTION AT A
MINIMUM SUNDAY MAINLY SW AREAS NE GA TO SW NC MTNS. MODELS AGREE
THERE WILL BE UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NW IN MID WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL BY A CATEGORY OR TWO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION FIRING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA SHUD SLIDE SE
TOWARD THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON. PER PREVIOUS COLLABORATION...
HAVE KEPT A TEMPO FOR THUNDER WITH VARIABLE WIND GUSTS IN PLACE.
EXPECT WIND OUTSIDE OF STORMS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO REMAIN WSW INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR VSBY
TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DOES MOVE OVER.
HOWEVER...CHC TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM. SHUD SEE BKN DEBRIS CLOUDS
THRU MUCH OF THE NITE WHICH THEN SCATTER OUT WED MORNING. WNW WINDS
PICK UP WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING WED.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...EXCEPT EARLIER VCTS AT
KAVL/KHKY AND LATER AT THE SC SITES. AGAIN...MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD
MORNING AT KGSP/KGMU...BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM WITHOUT KNOWING
IF PRECIP FALLS THERE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR VSBY NEAR DAYBREAK AT
KHKY/KAND AND IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KAVL. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHUD BURN OFF
QUICKLY WED MORNING. SIMILAR TRENDS TO WIND AS WELL...EXCEPT THE
USUAL NNW WIND AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR DAILY THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORNING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AT
FOOTHILL/PIEDMONT LOCATIONS WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FALLS THE
PREVIOUS AFTN/EVENING.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  82%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RWH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

NCZ037-271745-
DAVIE-
109 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN DAVIE COUNTY
THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 105 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ADVANCE...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MOCKSVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN DAVIE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION...

ADVANCE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3588 8037 3589 8041 3587 8039 3592 8051
      3601 8050 3605 8045 3601 8041 3599 8041
      3596 8037 3589 8036

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
224 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

NCZ033-501-502-271900-
AVERY-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
224 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CALDWELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 222 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GLOBE...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEWLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

GLOBE AND COLLETTSVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3601 8146 3581 8158 3591 8174 3593 8175
      3593 8178 3595 8178 3597 8182 3598 8187
      3600 8189 3601 8192 3609 8184

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

NCZ048-053-271915-
BUNCOMBE-MADISON-
226 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON AND
WESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 222 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF LEICESTER...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF
MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN MADISON AND WESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

LEICESTER...WOODFIN AND WEAVERVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3580 8238 3553 8243 3555 8277 3556 8278
      3557 8277 3560 8279 3566 8280 3580 8276

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

NCZ503>506-271915-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN BURKE AND CENTRAL
MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE JAMES...OR 8 MILES
NORTH OF MARION...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND WESTERN BURKE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATION...

LAKE JAMES...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAKE JAMES IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS. MOVE TO
SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3585 8168 3561 8176 3577 8215 3583 8212
      3585 8209 3586 8205

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
302 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

NCZ070-SCZ009-271945-
GASTON-YORK-
302 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN YORK AND SOUTHERN
GASTON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CROWDERS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GASTONIA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CROWDERS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...
  CLOVER...
  SOUTH GASTONIA...
  GASTONIA...
  CRAMERTON...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3504 8100 3506 8136 3517 8135 3517 8133
      3524 8133 3530 8101 3517 8100 3515 8101
      3515 8105 3511 8104 3509 8106 3506 8106
      3505 8103 3507 8100

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

NCZ501>504-272000-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
303 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BURKE AND SOUTHERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLLETTSVILLE...OR 12 MILES WEST OF
LENOIR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  COLLETTSVILLE...
  GAMEWELL...
  LENOIR...
  LAKE RHODHISS...
  CONNELLY SPRINGS...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3588 8133 3586 8134 3580 8133 3564 8147
      3588 8188 3597 8182 3596 8180 3601 8178
      3603 8176

CDG