Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

767 
WWUS52 KGSP 261747
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

NCC175-261757-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-140526T1815Z/
TRANSYLVANIA NC-
147 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3503 8299 3507 8278 3506 8276 3505 8275
      3506 8271 3506 8266 3487 8274 3498 8303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 305DEG 7KT 3499 8288

$$

SCC073-077-261815-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-140526T1815Z/
OCONEE SC-PICKENS SC-
147 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
PICKENS AND NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 142 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE
JOCASSEE...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF PICKENS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ROCKY BOTTOM.
  NINE TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3503 8299 3507 8278 3506 8276 3505 8275
      3506 8271 3506 8266 3487 8274 3498 8303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 305DEG 7KT 3499 8288

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED TODAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY BURNED OFF
ATTM...AND SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE NOON. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHRA WERE OVER
THE MTNS AT DAYBREAK...THEY HAVE DISSIPATED AS WELL. 12Z OBS RAOBS
SHOW THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. FCST WAS
FOR LESS STEERING FLOW AND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE RAOBS DO
SHOW SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY SO. THE LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWER START TO CONVECTION
DESPITE THE CONVECTION OVER NRN GA THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE
SLOWED THE ONSET SLIGHTLY...BUT ALLOW IT TO BUILD TO PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED COVERAGE. SVR STORM COVERAGE MAY BE LESS THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL EXPECT A FEW SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE CONTINUED
INSTABILITY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER SHEAR. IF SLOWER STORM MOVEMENT
DOES DEVELOP...THEN AN ISOLATED FLOOD PROBLEM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ALSO SLOWED ONSET OF CLOUDS GIVEN CURRENT SAT PIX. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FCST.

AS OF 700 AM EDT...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO FINE TUNE FOG
MENTION OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...WHILE REMOVING MOST FOG
IN THE CENTRAL UPSTATE WHERE MID CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED. IN
ADDITION...ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING IN TERRAIN FLOW
NEAR THE SMOKIES...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ARRANGED AROUND THIS.

OTHERWISE...A 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THIS FEATURE WILL MIGRATE EWD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL S TO SW FLOW MIGHT PROVIDE SOME
ISOLD SHRA TRIGGERING ALONG THE MTNS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER WESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY...LEADING TO LEE TROUGHING THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. EXPECT THAT
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY...WITH LIGHT W TO NW STEERING FLOW ALOFT
CARRYING CONVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY
UNIMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT SB CAPE VALUES SHOULD STILL REACH 1000 TO
1500 J/KG IN MOST AREAS WITH MARGINAL INSOLATION AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. CELLS WILL TAKE ON A MORE PULSE TYPE CHARACTER GIVEN THE
WEAK SHEAR IN PROFILES. CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD CAP MAX TEMPS AROUND
CLIMO...OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN NW PIEDMONT SECTIONS WITH A BIT
MORE SUN.

CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE MTNS GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED WEAK TERRAIN FLOW
TRIGGERING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD INCREASE ATOP THE RIDGE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP DENSE FOG AT BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO INCREASE GRADUALLY IN PROFILES AROUND
THE AREA...WITH MINS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE AN ENVIRONMENT
MORE LIKE MID SUMMER...WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND MODEST INSTBY
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTNS. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO
THE SRN PLAINS UNDER A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST.
TO THE EAST...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE NWLY FLOW REMAINS ACRS THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL
PUT OUR CWFA IN A COL IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS...RESULTING IN
LITTLE FORCING AND WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR CONVECTION.

I THINK THE GOING TEMPS AND POPS LOOK GOOD. SO I ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS BY BLENDING IN THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPS TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS...WITH MAIN FOCUS BEING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE MTNS AND
ALONG A TROF ACRS THE MIDLANDS TO EASTERN NC. A FEW PULSE SEVERE
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. FCST SNDGS
SHOW MID LVLS REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST. HOWEVER...STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW MICROBURSTS...ALONG WITH
QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY...THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW
WILL ALLOW A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BNDRY TO SAG SOUTH ACRS THE OH
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...NOT GETTING INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STILL...AS THE FRONT GETS INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA...EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. THE
FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...WITH NOT MUCH SHEAR. INSTBY LOOKS
TO BE ENHANCED THO...SO THERE MAY BE A BIT GREATER COVERAGE OF
SEVERE STORMS. I BLENDED IN THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH BUMPS UP
POPS SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL NOT QUITE TO LIKELY RANGE.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE THAT
THE FRONT SHUD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THRU THE AREA BEFORE STALLING
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
FOR CONVECTION ACRS THE SW AND CENTRAL NC MTNS...WHILE MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT AND NRN MTNS MAY BE DRY. TEMPS SHUD ALSO COOL DOWN TO
AROUND NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND KHKY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD...WITH PROB30 FOR TSRA STARTING TOWARD 21Z...WITH VCSH
EARLIER...FOR ANY CONVECTION MOVING EAST OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. SW
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT...THOUGH SOME MODELS HAVE LOW
END GUSTS AT KCLT WITH MIXING THIS AFTN. RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE TIED TO WHERE PRECIP FALLS TODAY...BUT AT LEAST MVFR FOG LOOKS
GOOD FOR HKY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LIGHT SW FLOW WITH SCATTERED MTN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE STARTING IN EARNEST BY 16Z AND SPREADING EAST OVER THE
FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE AFTN. PROB30 FOR TSRA SEEMS REASONABLE...
THOUGH KAVL SHOULD SEE SHRA AROUND BY LATE MORNING WITH AN EARLIER
TEMPO THIS AFTN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHRA CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EVENING
EXCEPT IN ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A RETURN TO
IFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH THE WEEK. MORNING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AT
FOOTHILL/PIEDMONT LOCATIONS WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS
DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   76%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   67%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       MED   61%     HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   78%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG/RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-270900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
450 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN STORMS WILL GENERALLY
DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
101 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

NCZ052-261730-
HAYWOOD-
101 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY THROUGH
130 PM EDT...

AT 1254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF LAKE JUNALUSKA...OR 10 MILES
NORTH OF WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE JUNALUSKA...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3563 8285 3562 8285 3562 8284 3560 8281
      3547 8295 3562 8316 3574 8299

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
118 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

NCZ064-SCZ001-002-261800-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
118 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PICKENS...
NORTHEASTERN OCONEE AND SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM
EDT...

AT 117 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE JOCASSEE...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PICKENS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ROCKY BOTTOM...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3513 8298 3512 8269 3510 8269 3510 8272
      3506 8276 3505 8274 3506 8271 3506 8270
      3490 8276 3499 8303

JOH